Ranvir Rana

Viraj Nadkarni, Jiachen Hu, Ranvir Rana et al.

Automated Market Makers (AMMs) are major centers of matching liquidity supply and demand in Decentralized Finance. Their functioning relies primarily on the presence of liquidity providers (LPs) incentivized to invest their assets into a liquidity pool. However, the prices at which a pooled asset is traded is often more stale than the prices on centralized and more liquid exchanges. This leads to the LPs suffering losses to arbitrage. This problem is addressed by adapting market prices to trader behavior, captured via the classical market microstructure model of Glosten and Milgrom. In this paper, we propose the first optimal Bayesian and the first model-free data-driven algorithm to optimally track the external price of the asset. The notion of optimality that we use enforces a zero-profit condition on the prices of the market maker, hence the name ZeroSwap. This ensures that the market maker balances losses to informed traders with profits from noise traders. The key property of our approach is the ability to estimate the external market price without the need for price oracles or loss oracles. Our theoretical guarantees on the performance of both these algorithms, ensuring the stability and convergence of their price recommendations, are of independent interest in the theory of reinforcement learning. We empirically demonstrate the robustness of our algorithms to changing market conditions.

Ranvir Rana, Viraj Nadkarni, Niusha Moshrefi et al.

Prediction markets are powerful mechanisms for information aggregation, but existing designs are optimized for single-event contracts. In practice, traders frequently express beliefs about joint outcomes - through parlays in sports, conditional forecasts across related events, or scenario bets in financial markets. Current platforms either prohibit such trades or rely on ad hoc mechanisms that ignore correlation structure, resulting in inefficient prices and fragmented liquidity. We introduce ParlayMarket, the first automated market-making design that supports parlay-style joint contracts within a unified liquidity pool while maintaining coherent pricing across base markets and their combinations. Our main result is a convergence characterization of the resulting system. Under repeated trading, the AMM dynamics converge to a unique fixed point corresponding to the best approximation to the true joint distribution within the model class. We show that (i) parameter error remains bounded at stationarity due to a balance between signal and noise in trade-induced updates, and (ii) pricing error and monetary loss scale with this parameter error, implying that aggregate market-maker loss remains controlled and grows at most quadratically in the number of base markets. These results establish explicit limits on the information-retrieval error achievable through the trading interface. Importantly, parlay trades play a structural role in this convergence: by providing direct constraints on joint outcomes, they improve identifiability of dependence structure and reduce steady-state error relative to markets that rely only on marginal trades. Empirically, we show both in controlled simulations and in replay on historical Kalshi parlay data that this design achieves the intended scaling while remaining effective in realistic market settings.

Ranvir Rana, Sreeram Kannan, David Tse et al.

Propelled by the growth of large-scale blockchain deployments, much recent progress has been made in designing sharding protocols that achieve throughput scaling linearly in the number of nodes. However, existing protocols are not robust to an adversary adaptively corrupting a fixed fraction of nodes. In this paper, we propose Free2Shard -- a new architecture that achieves near-linear scaling while being secure against a fully adaptive adversary. The focal point of this architecture is a dynamic self-allocation algorithm that lets users allocate themselves to shards in response to adversarial action, without requiring a central or cryptographic proof. This architecture has several attractive features unusual for sharding protocols, including: (a) the ability to handle the regime of large number of shards (relative to the number of nodes); (b) heterogeneous shard demands; (c) requiring only a small minority to follow the self-allocation; (d) asynchronous shard rotation; (e) operation in a purely identity-free proof-of-work setting. The key technical contribution is a deep mathematical connection to the classical work of Blackwell in dynamic game theory.

Giulia Fanti, Jiantao Jiao, Ashok Makkuva et al.

A blockchain is a database of sequential events that is maintained by a distributed group of nodes. A key consensus problem in blockchains is that of determining the next block (data element) in the sequence. Many blockchains address this by electing a new node to propose each new block. The new block is (typically) appended to the tip of the proposer's local blockchain, and subsequently broadcast to the rest of the network. Without network delay (or adversarial behavior), this procedure would give a perfect chain, since each proposer would have the same view of the blockchain. A major challenge in practice is forking. Due to network delays, a proposer may not yet have the most recent block, and may, therefore, create a side chain that branches from the middle of the main chain. Forking reduces throughput, since only one a single main chain can survive, and all other blocks are discarded. We propose a new P2P protocol for blockchains called Barracuda, in which each proposer, prior to proposing a block, polls $\ell$ other nodes for their local blocktree information. Under a stochastic network model, we prove that this lightweight primitive improves throughput as if the entire network were a factor of $\ell$ faster. We provide guidelines on how to implement Barracuda in practice, guaranteeing robustness against several real-world factors.

Hyeji Kim, Yihan Jiang, Ranvir Rana et al.

Coding theory is a central discipline underpinning wireline and wireless modems that are the workhorses of the information age. Progress in coding theory is largely driven by individual human ingenuity with sporadic breakthroughs over the past century. In this paper we study whether it is possible to automate the discovery of decoding algorithms via deep learning. We study a family of sequential codes parameterized by recurrent neural network (RNN) architectures. We show that creatively designed and trained RNN architectures can decode well known sequential codes such as the convolutional and turbo codes with close to optimal performance on the additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) channel, which itself is achieved by breakthrough algorithms of our times (Viterbi and BCJR decoders, representing dynamic programing and forward-backward algorithms). We show strong generalizations, i.e., we train at a specific signal to noise ratio and block length but test at a wide range of these quantities, as well as robustness and adaptivity to deviations from the AWGN setting.