Alejandro Cholaquidis

Matías Carrasco, Alejandro Cholaquidis

We study stochastic multi-armed bandits in which the objective is a statistical functional of the long-run reward distribution, rather than expected reward alone. Under mild continuity assumptions, we show that the infinite-horizon problem reduces to optimizing over stationary mixed policies: each weight vector \(w\) on the simplex induces a mixture law \(P^w\), and performance is measured by the concave utility \(U(w)=\mathfrak U(P^w)\). For differentiable statistical utilities, we use influence-function calculus to derive stochastic gradient estimators from bandit feedback. This leads to an entropic mirror-ascent algorithm on a truncated simplex, implemented through multiplicative-weights updates and plug-in estimates of the influence function. We establish regret bounds that separate the mirror-ascent optimization error from the bias caused by estimating the influence function. The framework is developed for general concave distributional utilities and illustrated through variance and Wasserstein objectives, with numerical experiments comparing exact and plug-in influence-function implementations.

Alejandro Cholaquidis, Emilien Joly, Leonardo Moreno

Conformal prediction provides finite-sample, distribution-free coverage under exchangeability, but standard constructions may lack robustness in the presence of outliers or heavy tails. We propose a robust conformal method based on a non-conformity score defined as the half-mass radius around a point, equivalently the distance to its $(\lfloor n/2\rfloor+1)$-nearest neighbour. We show that the resulting conformal regions are marginally valid for any sample size and converge in probability to a robust population central set defined through a distance-to-a-measure functional. Under mild regularity conditions, we establish exponential concentration and tail bounds that quantify the deviation between the empirical conformal region and its population counterpart. These results provide a probabilistic justification for using robust geometric scores in conformal prediction, even for heavy-tailed or multi-modal distributions.

Alejandro Cholaquidis, Fabrice Gamboa, Leonardo Moreno

Regression on manifolds, and, more broadly, statistics on manifolds, has garnered significant importance in recent years due to the vast number of applications for non Euclidean data. Circular data is a classic example, but so is data in the space of covariance matrices, data on the Grassmannian manifold obtained as a result of principal component analysis, among many others. In this work we investigate prediction sets for regression scenarios when the response variable, denoted by $Y$, resides in a manifold, and the covariable, denoted by $X$, lies in an Euclidean space. This extends the concepts delineated in \cite{waser14} to this novel context. Aligning with traditional principles in conformal inference, these prediction sets are distribution-free, indicating that no specific assumptions are imposed on the joint distribution of $(X,Y)$, and they maintain a non-parametric character. We prove the asymptotic almost sure convergence of the empirical version of these regions on the manifold to their population counterparts. The efficiency of this method is shown through a comprehensive simulation study and an analysis involving real-world data.

Alejandro Cholaquidis, Ricardo Fraiman, Mariela Sued

Semi-supervised learning deals with the problem of how, if possible, to take advantage of a huge amount of unclassified data, to perform a classification in situations when, typically, there is little labeled data. Even though this is not always possible (it depends on how useful, for inferring the labels, it would be to know the distribution of the unlabeled data), several algorithm have been proposed recently. %but in general they are not proved to outperform A new algorithm is proposed, that under almost necessary conditions, %and it is proved that it attains asymptotically the performance of the best theoretical rule as the amount of unlabeled data tends to infinity. The set of necessary assumptions, although reasonable, show that semi-supervised classification only works for very well conditioned problems. The focus is on understanding when and why semi-supervised learning works when the size of the initial training sample remains fixed and the asymptotic is on the size of the unlabeled data. The performance of the algorithm is assessed in the well known "Isolet" real-data of phonemes, where a strong dependence on the choice of the initial training sample is shown.

Alejandro Cholaquidis, Ricardo Fraiman, Mariela Sued

Semi-supervised learning deals with the problem of how, if possible, to take advantage of a huge amount of not classified data, to perform classification, in situations when, typically, the labelled data are few. Even though this is not always possible (it depends on how useful is to know the distribution of the unlabelled data in the inference of the labels), several algorithm have been proposed recently. A new algorithm is proposed, that under almost neccesary conditions, attains asymptotically the performance of the best theoretical rule, when the size of unlabeled data tends to infinity. The set of necessary assumptions, although reasonables, show that semi-parametric classification only works for very well conditioned problems.

Alejandro Cholaquidis, Ricardo Fraiman, Juan Kalemkerian et al.

We introduce a nonlinear aggregation type classifier for functional data defined on a separable and complete metric space. The new rule is built up from a collection of $M$ arbitrary training classifiers. If the classifiers are consistent, then so is the aggregation rule. Moreover, asymptotically the aggregation rule behaves as well as the best of the $M$ classifiers. The results of a small simulation are reported both, for high dimensional and functional data, and a real data example is analyzed.