Andrew Gordon Wilson

Roman Levin, Valeriia Cherepanova, Avi Schwarzschild et al. · amazon-science

Recent work on deep learning for tabular data demonstrates the strong performance of deep tabular models, often bridging the gap between gradient boosted decision trees and neural networks. Accuracy aside, a major advantage of neural models is that they learn reusable features and are easily fine-tuned in new domains. This property is often exploited in computer vision and natural language applications, where transfer learning is indispensable when task-specific training data is scarce. In this work, we demonstrate that upstream data gives tabular neural networks a decisive advantage over widely used GBDT models. We propose a realistic medical diagnosis benchmark for tabular transfer learning, and we present a how-to guide for using upstream data to boost performance with a variety of tabular neural network architectures. Finally, we propose a pseudo-feature method for cases where the upstream and downstream feature sets differ, a tabular-specific problem widespread in real-world applications. Our code is available at https://github.com/LevinRoman/tabular-transfer-learning .

Randall Balestriero, Mark Ibrahim, Vlad Sobal et al. · meta-ai

Self-supervised learning, dubbed the dark matter of intelligence, is a promising path to advance machine learning. Yet, much like cooking, training SSL methods is a delicate art with a high barrier to entry. While many components are familiar, successfully training a SSL method involves a dizzying set of choices from the pretext tasks to training hyper-parameters. Our goal is to lower the barrier to entry into SSL research by laying the foundations and latest SSL recipes in the style of a cookbook. We hope to empower the curious researcher to navigate the terrain of methods, understand the role of the various knobs, and gain the know-how required to explore how delicious SSL can be.

Micah Goldblum, Hossein Souri, Renkun Ni et al. · gatech

Neural network based computer vision systems are typically built on a backbone, a pretrained or randomly initialized feature extractor. Several years ago, the default option was an ImageNet-trained convolutional neural network. However, the recent past has seen the emergence of countless backbones pretrained using various algorithms and datasets. While this abundance of choice has led to performance increases for a range of systems, it is difficult for practitioners to make informed decisions about which backbone to choose. Battle of the Backbones (BoB) makes this choice easier by benchmarking a diverse suite of pretrained models, including vision-language models, those trained via self-supervised learning, and the Stable Diffusion backbone, across a diverse set of computer vision tasks ranging from classification to object detection to OOD generalization and more. Furthermore, BoB sheds light on promising directions for the research community to advance computer vision by illuminating strengths and weakness of existing approaches through a comprehensive analysis conducted on more than 1500 training runs. While vision transformers (ViTs) and self-supervised learning (SSL) are increasingly popular, we find that convolutional neural networks pretrained in a supervised fashion on large training sets still perform best on most tasks among the models we consider. Moreover, in apples-to-apples comparisons on the same architectures and similarly sized pretraining datasets, we find that SSL backbones are highly competitive, indicating that future works should perform SSL pretraining with advanced architectures and larger pretraining datasets. We release the raw results of our experiments along with code that allows researchers to put their own backbones through the gauntlet here: https://github.com/hsouri/Battle-of-the-Backbones

Polina Kirichenko, Pavel Izmailov, Andrew Gordon Wilson · openai

Neural network classifiers can largely rely on simple spurious features, such as backgrounds, to make predictions. However, even in these cases, we show that they still often learn core features associated with the desired attributes of the data, contrary to recent findings. Inspired by this insight, we demonstrate that simple last layer retraining can match or outperform state-of-the-art approaches on spurious correlation benchmarks, but with profoundly lower complexity and computational expenses. Moreover, we show that last layer retraining on large ImageNet-trained models can also significantly reduce reliance on background and texture information, improving robustness to covariate shift, after only minutes of training on a single GPU.

Gianluca Detommaso, Alberto Gasparin, Michele Donini et al. · amazon-science

We present Fortuna, an open-source library for uncertainty quantification in deep learning. Fortuna supports a range of calibration techniques, such as conformal prediction that can be applied to any trained neural network to generate reliable uncertainty estimates, and scalable Bayesian inference methods that can be applied to Flax-based deep neural networks trained from scratch for improved uncertainty quantification and accuracy. By providing a coherent framework for advanced uncertainty quantification methods, Fortuna simplifies the process of benchmarking and helps practitioners build robust AI systems.

Pavel Izmailov, Polina Kirichenko, Nate Gruver et al. · openai

Deep classifiers are known to rely on spurious features $\unicode{x2013}$ patterns which are correlated with the target on the training data but not inherently relevant to the learning problem, such as the image backgrounds when classifying the foregrounds. In this paper we evaluate the amount of information about the core (non-spurious) features that can be decoded from the representations learned by standard empirical risk minimization (ERM) and specialized group robustness training. Following recent work on Deep Feature Reweighting (DFR), we evaluate the feature representations by re-training the last layer of the model on a held-out set where the spurious correlation is broken. On multiple vision and NLP problems, we show that the features learned by simple ERM are highly competitive with the features learned by specialized group robustness methods targeted at reducing the effect of spurious correlations. Moreover, we show that the quality of learned feature representations is greatly affected by the design decisions beyond the training method, such as the model architecture and pre-training strategy. On the other hand, we find that strong regularization is not necessary for learning high quality feature representations. Finally, using insights from our analysis, we significantly improve upon the best results reported in the literature on the popular Waterbirds, CelebA hair color prediction and WILDS-FMOW problems, achieving 97%, 92% and 50% worst-group accuracies, respectively.

Shikai Qiu, Andres Potapczynski, Pavel Izmailov et al. · openai

A major challenge to out-of-distribution generalization is reliance on spurious features -- patterns that are predictive of the class label in the training data distribution, but not causally related to the target. Standard methods for reducing the reliance on spurious features typically assume that we know what the spurious feature is, which is rarely true in the real world. Methods that attempt to alleviate this limitation are complex, hard to tune, and lead to a significant computational overhead compared to standard training. In this paper, we propose Automatic Feature Reweighting (AFR), an extremely simple and fast method for updating the model to reduce the reliance on spurious features. AFR retrains the last layer of a standard ERM-trained base model with a weighted loss that emphasizes the examples where the ERM model predicts poorly, automatically upweighting the minority group without group labels. With this simple procedure, we improve upon the best reported results among competing methods trained without spurious attributes on several vision and natural language classification benchmarks, using only a fraction of their compute.

Marc Finzi, Shikai Qiu, Yiding Jiang et al. · openai

Can we learn more from data than existed in the generating process itself? Can new and useful information be constructed from merely applying deterministic transformations to existing data? Can the learnable content in data be evaluated without considering a downstream task? On these questions, Shannon information and Kolmogorov complexity come up nearly empty-handed, in part because they assume observers with unlimited computational capacity and do not target the useful information content. In this work, we identify and exemplify three seeming paradoxes in information theory: (1) information cannot be increased by deterministic transformations; (2) information is independent of the order of data; (3) likelihood modeling is merely distribution matching. To shed light on the tension between these results and modern practice, and to quantify the value of data, we introduce epiplexity, a formalization of information capturing what computationally bounded observers can learn from data. Epiplexity captures the structural content in data while excluding time-bounded entropy, the random unpredictable content exemplified by pseudorandom number generators and chaotic dynamical systems. With these concepts, we demonstrate how information can be created with computation, how it depends on the ordering of the data, and how likelihood modeling can produce more complex programs than present in the data generating process itself. We also present practical procedures to estimate epiplexity which we show capture differences across data sources, track with downstream performance, and highlight dataset interventions that improve out-of-distribution generalization. In contrast to principles of model selection, epiplexity provides a theoretical foundation for data selection, guiding how to select, generate, or transform data for learning systems.

Valeriia Cherepanova, Roman Levin, Gowthami Somepalli et al. · amazon-science

Academic tabular benchmarks often contain small sets of curated features. In contrast, data scientists typically collect as many features as possible into their datasets, and even engineer new features from existing ones. To prevent overfitting in subsequent downstream modeling, practitioners commonly use automated feature selection methods that identify a reduced subset of informative features. Existing benchmarks for tabular feature selection consider classical downstream models, toy synthetic datasets, or do not evaluate feature selectors on the basis of downstream performance. Motivated by the increasing popularity of tabular deep learning, we construct a challenging feature selection benchmark evaluated on downstream neural networks including transformers, using real datasets and multiple methods for generating extraneous features. We also propose an input-gradient-based analogue of Lasso for neural networks that outperforms classical feature selection methods on challenging problems such as selecting from corrupted or second-order features.

Ravid Shwartz-Ziv, Micah Goldblum, Hossein Souri et al.

Deep learning is increasingly moving towards a transfer learning paradigm whereby large foundation models are fine-tuned on downstream tasks, starting from an initialization learned on the source task. But an initialization contains relatively little information about the source task. Instead, we show that we can learn highly informative posteriors from the source task, through supervised or self-supervised approaches, which then serve as the basis for priors that modify the whole loss surface on the downstream task. This simple modular approach enables significant performance gains and more data-efficient learning on a variety of downstream classification and segmentation tasks, serving as a drop-in replacement for standard pre-training strategies. These highly informative priors also can be saved for future use, similar to pre-trained weights, and stand in contrast to the zero-mean isotropic uninformative priors that are typically used in Bayesian deep learning.

Samuel Stanton, Wesley Maddox, Nate Gruver et al.

Bayesian optimization (BayesOpt) is a gold standard for query-efficient continuous optimization. However, its adoption for drug design has been hindered by the discrete, high-dimensional nature of the decision variables. We develop a new approach (LaMBO) which jointly trains a denoising autoencoder with a discriminative multi-task Gaussian process head, allowing gradient-based optimization of multi-objective acquisition functions in the latent space of the autoencoder. These acquisition functions allow LaMBO to balance the explore-exploit tradeoff over multiple design rounds, and to balance objective tradeoffs by optimizing sequences at many different points on the Pareto frontier. We evaluate LaMBO on two small-molecule design tasks, and introduce new tasks optimizing \emph{in silico} and \emph{in vitro} properties of large-molecule fluorescent proteins. In our experiments LaMBO outperforms genetic optimizers and does not require a large pretraining corpus, demonstrating that BayesOpt is practical and effective for biological sequence design.

Jonas Geiping, Micah Goldblum, Gowthami Somepalli et al.

Despite the clear performance benefits of data augmentations, little is known about why they are so effective. In this paper, we disentangle several key mechanisms through which data augmentations operate. Establishing an exchange rate between augmented and additional real data, we find that in out-of-distribution testing scenarios, augmentations which yield samples that are diverse, but inconsistent with the data distribution can be even more valuable than additional training data. Moreover, we find that data augmentations which encourage invariances can be more valuable than invariance alone, especially on small and medium sized training sets. Following this observation, we show that augmentations induce additional stochasticity during training, effectively flattening the loss landscape.

Amin Ghiasi, Hamid Kazemi, Eitan Borgnia et al.

Vision transformers (ViTs) are quickly becoming the de-facto architecture for computer vision, yet we understand very little about why they work and what they learn. While existing studies visually analyze the mechanisms of convolutional neural networks, an analogous exploration of ViTs remains challenging. In this paper, we first address the obstacles to performing visualizations on ViTs. Assisted by these solutions, we observe that neurons in ViTs trained with language model supervision (e.g., CLIP) are activated by semantic concepts rather than visual features. We also explore the underlying differences between ViTs and CNNs, and we find that transformers detect image background features, just like their convolutional counterparts, but their predictions depend far less on high-frequency information. On the other hand, both architecture types behave similarly in the way features progress from abstract patterns in early layers to concrete objects in late layers. In addition, we show that ViTs maintain spatial information in all layers except the final layer. In contrast to previous works, we show that the last layer most likely discards the spatial information and behaves as a learned global pooling operation. Finally, we conduct large-scale visualizations on a wide range of ViT variants, including DeiT, CoaT, ConViT, PiT, Swin, and Twin, to validate the effectiveness of our method.

Sanae Lotfi, Marc Finzi, Sanyam Kapoor et al.

While there has been progress in developing non-vacuous generalization bounds for deep neural networks, these bounds tend to be uninformative about why deep learning works. In this paper, we develop a compression approach based on quantizing neural network parameters in a linear subspace, profoundly improving on previous results to provide state-of-the-art generalization bounds on a variety of tasks, including transfer learning. We use these tight bounds to better understand the role of model size, equivariance, and the implicit biases of optimization, for generalization in deep learning. Notably, we find large models can be compressed to a much greater extent than previously known, encapsulating Occam's razor. We also argue for data-independent bounds in explaining generalization.

Xinpeng Wang, William Cao, Andrew Gordon Wilson et al.

Recent studies on hallucination detection have shown that hallucination-related signals are more strongly encoded in intermediate layers than in the final layer of large language models (LLMs). Although a growing body of work has sought to exploit this property for hallucination detection, how to automate the selection of high-performing layers remains underexplored, and principled methods for this purpose are still lacking. To address this gap, we first propose several hypotheses for why such signals emerge in intermediate layers and evaluate corresponding criteria for automatic layer selection across diverse LLM architectures, scales, and tasks, covering both question answering and summarization hallucination detection benchmarks. However, we find that none of these criteria consistently delivers satisfactory performance. We therefore propose a new selection criterion, First Effective Peak of Intrinsic Dimension (FEPoID), which consistently identify optimal or near-optimal layers and outperforms both the aforementioned criteria and existing hallucination detection baselines. FEPoID is training-free and incurs negligible computational overhead. In addition, we study the generation behaviors of LLMs and introduce a simple yet effective truncation strategy, which further amplifies hallucination-related signals and substantially improves overall detection performance. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/DesoloYw/Automatic-Layer-Selection-for-Hallucination-Detection.git

Matt L. Wiemann, Lindsay M. Smith, Peter Melchior et al.

Frontier LLMs now perform strongly across a wide range of physics evaluations, but it is hard to disentangle genuine reasoning from recall of established science. We introduce DiscoverPhysics, an interactive benchmark that asks a LLM agent to discover the laws of motion of a simulated world whose physics deliberately deviates from our own. We construct 22 worlds governed by, among others, screened and fractional-power gravity, multi-species couplings, hidden dark-matter-like particles, non-coordinate-free physics, and time-varying interactions. Each world is generated on demand by an N-body simulator, for which the agent proposes several rounds of experiments, observes raw trajectory data, and ultimately submits both a natural-language explanation of the world's physics and a Python implementation of the inferred law. Because solving a world requires the agent to design informative experiments and revise its hypotheses, the benchmark probes long-horizon reasoning over an experimental history. We evaluate submissions along two complementary axes: trajectory MSE on held-out particles and an LLM-judged explanation score following an expert-written rubric assessing conceptual understanding of each world. Across eleven frontier models, we find that the strongest agents pass only half of the worlds and consistently fail on those where latent structure must be uncovered. Open-source models lag substantially behind commercial models, both in their ability to design informative experiments and in extracting conclusions from the data. We further find that good predictive accuracy does not guarantee high explanation quality and that conceptual understanding depends on hypothesis refinement through well-chosen experiments.

Micah Goldblum, Marc Finzi, Keefer Rowan et al.

No free lunch theorems for supervised learning state that no learner can solve all problems or that all learners achieve exactly the same accuracy on average over a uniform distribution on learning problems. Accordingly, these theorems are often referenced in support of the notion that individual problems require specially tailored inductive biases. While virtually all uniformly sampled datasets have high complexity, real-world problems disproportionately generate low-complexity data, and we argue that neural network models share this same preference, formalized using Kolmogorov complexity. Notably, we show that architectures designed for a particular domain, such as computer vision, can compress datasets on a variety of seemingly unrelated domains. Our experiments show that pre-trained and even randomly initialized language models prefer to generate low-complexity sequences. Whereas no free lunch theorems seemingly indicate that individual problems require specialized learners, we explain how tasks that often require human intervention such as picking an appropriately sized model when labeled data is scarce or plentiful can be automated into a single learning algorithm. These observations justify the trend in deep learning of unifying seemingly disparate problems with an increasingly small set of machine learning models.

Nate Gruver, Marc Finzi, Micah Goldblum et al.

Equivariance guarantees that a model's predictions capture key symmetries in data. When an image is translated or rotated, an equivariant model's representation of that image will translate or rotate accordingly. The success of convolutional neural networks has historically been tied to translation equivariance directly encoded in their architecture. The rising success of vision transformers, which have no explicit architectural bias towards equivariance, challenges this narrative and suggests that augmentations and training data might also play a significant role in their performance. In order to better understand the role of equivariance in recent vision models, we introduce the Lie derivative, a method for measuring equivariance with strong mathematical foundations and minimal hyperparameters. Using the Lie derivative, we study the equivariance properties of hundreds of pretrained models, spanning CNNs, transformers, and Mixer architectures. The scale of our analysis allows us to separate the impact of architecture from other factors like model size or training method. Surprisingly, we find that many violations of equivariance can be linked to spatial aliasing in ubiquitous network layers, such as pointwise non-linearities, and that as models get larger and more accurate they tend to display more equivariance, regardless of architecture. For example, transformers can be more equivariant than convolutional neural networks after training.

Marc Finzi, Anudhyan Boral, Andrew Gordon Wilson et al.

Diffusion models are a class of probabilistic generative models that have been widely used as a prior for image processing tasks like text conditional generation and inpainting. We demonstrate that these models can be adapted to make predictions and provide uncertainty quantification for chaotic dynamical systems. In these applications, diffusion models can implicitly represent knowledge about outliers and extreme events; however, querying that knowledge through conditional sampling or measuring probabilities is surprisingly difficult. Existing methods for conditional sampling at inference time seek mainly to enforce the constraints, which is insufficient to match the statistics of the distribution or compute the probability of the chosen events. To achieve these ends, optimally one would use the conditional score function, but its computation is typically intractable. In this work, we develop a probabilistic approximation scheme for the conditional score function which provably converges to the true distribution as the noise level decreases. With this scheme we are able to sample conditionally on nonlinear userdefined events at inference time, and matches data statistics even when sampling from the tails of the distribution.

Nate Gruver, Marc Finzi, Shikai Qiu et al.

By encoding time series as a string of numerical digits, we can frame time series forecasting as next-token prediction in text. Developing this approach, we find that large language models (LLMs) such as GPT-3 and LLaMA-2 can surprisingly zero-shot extrapolate time series at a level comparable to or exceeding the performance of purpose-built time series models trained on the downstream tasks. To facilitate this performance, we propose procedures for effectively tokenizing time series data and converting discrete distributions over tokens into highly flexible densities over continuous values. We argue the success of LLMs for time series stems from their ability to naturally represent multimodal distributions, in conjunction with biases for simplicity, and repetition, which align with the salient features in many time series, such as repeated seasonal trends. We also show how LLMs can naturally handle missing data without imputation through non-numerical text, accommodate textual side information, and answer questions to help explain predictions. While we find that increasing model size generally improves performance on time series, we show GPT-4 can perform worse than GPT-3 because of how it tokenizes numbers, and poor uncertainty calibration, which is likely the result of alignment interventions such as RLHF.

Zichang Liu, Zhiqiang Tang, Xingjian Shi et al.

The ability to jointly learn from multiple modalities, such as text, audio, and visual data, is a defining feature of intelligent systems. While there have been promising advances in designing neural networks to harness multimodal data, the enormous success of data augmentation currently remains limited to single-modality tasks like image classification. Indeed, it is particularly difficult to augment each modality while preserving the overall semantic structure of the data; for example, a caption may no longer be a good description of an image after standard augmentations have been applied, such as translation. Moreover, it is challenging to specify reasonable transformations that are not tailored to a particular modality. In this paper, we introduce LeMDA, Learning Multimodal Data Augmentation, an easy-to-use method that automatically learns to jointly augment multimodal data in feature space, with no constraints on the identities of the modalities or the relationship between modalities. We show that LeMDA can (1) profoundly improve the performance of multimodal deep learning architectures, (2) apply to combinations of modalities that have not been previously considered, and (3) achieve state-of-the-art results on a wide range of applications comprised of image, text, and tabular data.

Samuel Stanton, Wesley Maddox, Andrew Gordon Wilson

Bayesian optimization is a coherent, ubiquitous approach to decision-making under uncertainty, with applications including multi-arm bandits, active learning, and black-box optimization. Bayesian optimization selects decisions (i.e. objective function queries) with maximal expected utility with respect to the posterior distribution of a Bayesian model, which quantifies reducible, epistemic uncertainty about query outcomes. In practice, subjectively implausible outcomes can occur regularly for two reasons: 1) model misspecification and 2) covariate shift. Conformal prediction is an uncertainty quantification method with coverage guarantees even for misspecified models and a simple mechanism to correct for covariate shift. We propose conformal Bayesian optimization, which directs queries towards regions of search space where the model predictions have guaranteed validity, and investigate its behavior on a suite of black-box optimization tasks and tabular ranking tasks. In many cases we find that query coverage can be significantly improved without harming sample-efficiency.

Renkun Ni, Ping-yeh Chiang, Jonas Geiping et al.

Sharpness-Aware Minimization (SAM) has recently emerged as a robust technique for improving the accuracy of deep neural networks. However, SAM incurs a high computational cost in practice, requiring up to twice as much computation as vanilla SGD. The computational challenge posed by SAM arises because each iteration requires both ascent and descent steps and thus double the gradient computations. To address this challenge, we propose to compute gradients in both stages of SAM on only the top-k samples with highest loss. K-SAM is simple and extremely easy-to-implement while providing significant generalization boosts over vanilla SGD at little to no additional cost.

Ruqi Zhang, Andrew Gordon Wilson, Christopher De Sa

While low-precision optimization has been widely used to accelerate deep learning, low-precision sampling remains largely unexplored. As a consequence, sampling is simply infeasible in many large-scale scenarios, despite providing remarkable benefits to generalization and uncertainty estimation for neural networks. In this paper, we provide the first study of low-precision Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics (SGLD), showing that its costs can be significantly reduced without sacrificing performance, due to its intrinsic ability to handle system noise. We prove that the convergence of low-precision SGLD with full-precision gradient accumulators is less affected by the quantization error than its SGD counterpart in the strongly convex setting. To further enable low-precision gradient accumulators, we develop a new quantization function for SGLD that preserves the variance in each update step. We demonstrate that low-precision SGLD achieves comparable performance to full-precision SGLD with only 8 bits on a variety of deep learning tasks.

Wanqian Yang, Polina Kirichenko, Micah Goldblum et al.

Deep neural networks are susceptible to shortcut learning, using simple features to achieve low training loss without discovering essential semantic structure. Contrary to prior belief, we show that generative models alone are not sufficient to prevent shortcut learning, despite an incentive to recover a more comprehensive representation of the data than discriminative approaches. However, we observe that shortcuts are preferentially encoded with minimal information, a fact that generative models can exploit to mitigate shortcut learning. In particular, we propose Chroma-VAE, a two-pronged approach where a VAE classifier is initially trained to isolate the shortcut in a small latent subspace, allowing a secondary classifier to be trained on the complementary, shortcut-free latent subspace. In addition to demonstrating the efficacy of Chroma-VAE on benchmark and real-world shortcut learning tasks, our work highlights the potential for manipulating the latent space of generative classifiers to isolate or interpret specific correlations.

Wesley J. Maddox, Andres Potapczynski, Andrew Gordon Wilson

Low-precision arithmetic has had a transformative effect on the training of neural networks, reducing computation, memory and energy requirements. However, despite its promise, low-precision arithmetic has received little attention for Gaussian processes (GPs), largely because GPs require sophisticated linear algebra routines that are unstable in low-precision. We study the different failure modes that can occur when training GPs in half precision. To circumvent these failure modes, we propose a multi-faceted approach involving conjugate gradients with re-orthogonalization, mixed precision, and preconditioning. Our approach significantly improves the numerical stability and practical performance of conjugate gradients in low-precision over a wide range of settings, enabling GPs to train on $1.8$ million data points in $10$ hours on a single GPU, without any sparse approximations.

Marc Finzi, Andres Potapczynski, Matthew Choptuik et al.

Unlike conventional grid and mesh based methods for solving partial differential equations (PDEs), neural networks have the potential to break the curse of dimensionality, providing approximate solutions to problems where using classical solvers is difficult or impossible. While global minimization of the PDE residual over the network parameters works well for boundary value problems, catastrophic forgetting impairs the applicability of this approach to initial value problems (IVPs). In an alternative local-in-time approach, the optimization problem can be converted into an ordinary differential equation (ODE) on the network parameters and the solution propagated forward in time; however, we demonstrate that current methods based on this approach suffer from two key issues. First, following the ODE produces an uncontrolled growth in the conditioning of the problem, ultimately leading to unacceptably large numerical errors. Second, as the ODE methods scale cubically with the number of model parameters, they are restricted to small neural networks, significantly limiting their ability to represent intricate PDE initial conditions and solutions. Building on these insights, we develop Neural IVP, an ODE based IVP solver which prevents the network from getting ill-conditioned and runs in time linear in the number of parameters, enabling us to evolve the dynamics of challenging PDEs with neural networks.

Gregory Benton, Wesley J. Maddox, Andrew Gordon Wilson

A broad class of stochastic volatility models are defined by systems of stochastic differential equations. While these models have seen widespread success in domains such as finance and statistical climatology, they typically lack an ability to condition on historical data to produce a true posterior distribution. To address this fundamental limitation, we show how to re-cast a class of stochastic volatility models as a hierarchical Gaussian process (GP) model with specialized covariance functions. This GP model retains the inductive biases of the stochastic volatility model while providing the posterior predictive distribution given by GP inference. Within this framework, we take inspiration from well studied domains to introduce a new class of models, Volt and Magpie, that significantly outperform baselines in stock and wind speed forecasting, and naturally extend to the multitask setting.

Sanae Lotfi, Yilun Kuang, Brandon Amos et al.

Large language models (LLMs) with billions of parameters excel at predicting the next token in a sequence. Recent work computes non-vacuous compression-based generalization bounds for LLMs, but these bounds are vacuous for large models at the billion-parameter scale. Moreover, these bounds are obtained through restrictive compression techniques, bounding compressed models that generate low-quality text. Additionally, the tightness of these existing bounds depends on the number of IID documents in a training set rather than the much larger number of non-IID constituent tokens, leaving untapped potential for tighter bounds. In this work, we instead use properties of martingales to derive generalization bounds that benefit from the vast number of tokens in LLM training sets. Since a dataset contains far more tokens than documents, our generalization bounds not only tolerate but actually benefit from far less restrictive compression schemes. With Monarch matrices, Kronecker factorizations, and post-training quantization, we achieve non-vacuous generalization bounds for LLMs as large as LLaMA2-70B. Unlike previous approaches, our work achieves the first non-vacuous bounds for models that are deployed in practice and generate high-quality text.

Andres Potapczynski, Marc Finzi, Geoff Pleiss et al.

Many areas of machine learning and science involve large linear algebra problems, such as eigendecompositions, solving linear systems, computing matrix exponentials, and trace estimation. The matrices involved often have Kronecker, convolutional, block diagonal, sum, or product structure. In this paper, we propose a simple but general framework for large-scale linear algebra problems in machine learning, named CoLA (Compositional Linear Algebra). By combining a linear operator abstraction with compositional dispatch rules, CoLA automatically constructs memory and runtime efficient numerical algorithms. Moreover, CoLA provides memory efficient automatic differentiation, low precision computation, and GPU acceleration in both JAX and PyTorch, while also accommodating new objects, operations, and rules in downstream packages via multiple dispatch. CoLA can accelerate many algebraic operations, while making it easy to prototype matrix structures and algorithms, providing an appealing drop-in tool for virtually any computational effort that requires linear algebra. We showcase its efficacy across a broad range of applications, including partial differential equations, Gaussian processes, equivariant model construction, and unsupervised learning.

Martin Marek, Dongkyu Cho, Shikai Qiu et al.

Models trained on a new task typically degrade on prior tasks, a phenomenon known as forgetting. Traditionally, mitigating forgetting has required replaying stored exemplars from prior tasks, which is often impractical. By contrast, language models can sample from their own training distribution, and we show that these self-generated samples serve as effective replay data, nearly eliminating forgetting. We find that forgetting nonetheless persists when the model has little remaining capacity: models pretrained close to saturation cannot absorb new information without overwriting prior knowledge. When capacity is not the limiting factor, low learning rates reduce forgetting but require substantially more training steps. Replay breaks this tradeoff, enabling fast, high-learning-rate finetuning without forgetting.

Shikai Qiu, Tim G. J. Rudner, Sanyam Kapoor et al.

Standard regularized training procedures correspond to maximizing a posterior distribution over parameters, known as maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation. However, model parameters are of interest only insomuch as they combine with the functional form of a model to provide a function that can make good predictions. Moreover, the most likely parameters under the parameter posterior do not generally correspond to the most likely function induced by the parameter posterior. In fact, we can re-parametrize a model such that any setting of parameters can maximize the parameter posterior. As an alternative, we investigate the benefits and drawbacks of directly estimating the most likely function implied by the model and the data. We show that this procedure leads to pathological solutions when using neural networks and prove conditions under which the procedure is well-behaved, as well as a scalable approximation. Under these conditions, we find that function-space MAP estimation can lead to flatter minima, better generalization, and improved robustness to overfitting.

Andres Potapczynski, Ravi Kiran Selvam, Tatiana Konstantinova et al.

In many time series forecasting settings, the target time series is accompanied by exogenous covariates, such as promotions and prices in retail demand; temperature in energy load; calendar and holiday indicators for traffic or sales; and grid load or fuel costs in electricity pricing. Ignoring these exogenous signals can substantially degrade forecasting accuracy, particularly when they drive spikes, discontinuities, or regime and phase changes in the target series. Most current time series foundation models (e.g., Chronos, Sundial, TimesFM, TimeMoE, TimeLLM, and LagLlama) ignore exogenous covariates and make forecasts solely from the numerical time series history, thereby limiting their performance. In this paper, we develop ApolloPFN, a prior-data fitted network (PFN) that is time-aware (unlike prior PFNs) and that natively incorporates exogenous covariates (unlike prior univariate forecasters). Our design introduces two major advances: (i) a synthetic data generation procedure tailored to resolve the failure modes that arise when tabular (non-temporal) PFNs are applied to time series; and (ii) time-aware architectural modifications that embed inductive biases needed to exploit the time series context. We demonstrate that ApolloPFN achieves state-of-the-art results across benchmarks, such as M5 and electric price forecasting, that contain exogenous information.

Nuria Alina Chandra, Yucen Lily Li, Alan N. Amin et al.

To model discrete sequences such as DNA, proteins, and language using diffusion, practitioners must choose between three major methods: diffusion in discrete space, Gaussian diffusion in Euclidean space, or diffusion on the simplex. Despite their shared goal, these models have disparate algorithms, theoretical structures, and tradeoffs: discrete diffusion has the most natural domain, Gaussian diffusion has more mature algorithms, and diffusion on the simplex in principle combines the strengths of the other two but in practice suffers from a numerically unstable stochastic processes. Ideally we could see each of these models as instances of the same underlying framework, and enable practitioners to switch between models for downstream applications. However previous theories have only considered connections in special cases. Here we build a theory unifying all three methods of discrete diffusion as different parameterizations of the same underlying process: the Wright-Fisher population genetics model. In particular, we find simplicial and Gaussian diffusion as two large-population limits. Our theory formally connects the likelihoods and hyperparameters of these models and leverages decades of mathematical genetics literature to unlock stable simplicial diffusion. Finally, we relieve the practitioner of balancing model trade-offs by demonstrating it is possible to train a single model that can perform diffusion in any of these three domains at test time. Our experiments show that Wright-Fisher simplicial diffusion is more stable and outperforms previous simplicial diffusion models on conditional DNA generation. We also show that we can train models on multiple domains at once that are competitive with models trained on any individual domain.

Mayuka Jayawardhana, Renbo, Samuel Dooley et al. · amazon-science

Large language models (LLMs) perform remarkably well on tabular datasets in zero- and few-shot settings, since they can extract meaning from natural language column headers that describe features and labels. Similarly, TabPFN, a recent non-LLM transformer pretrained on numerous tables for in-context learning, has demonstrated excellent performance for dataset sizes up to a thousand samples. In contrast, gradient-boosted decision trees (GBDTs) are typically trained from scratch on each dataset without benefiting from pretraining data and must learn the relationships between columns from their entries alone since they lack natural language understanding. LLMs and TabPFN excel on small tabular datasets where a strong prior is essential, yet they are not competitive with GBDTs on medium or large datasets, since their context lengths are limited. In this paper, we propose a simple and lightweight approach for fusing large language models and TabPFN with gradient-boosted decision trees, which allows scalable GBDTs to benefit from the natural language capabilities and pretraining of transformers. We name our fusion methods LLM-Boost and PFN-Boost, respectively. While matching or surpassing the performance of the transformer at sufficiently small dataset sizes and GBDTs at sufficiently large sizes, LLM-Boost and PFN-Boost outperform both standalone components on a wide range of dataset sizes in between. We demonstrate state-of-the-art performance against numerous baselines and ensembling algorithms. We find that PFN-Boost achieves the best average performance among all methods we test for all but very small dataset sizes. We release our code at http://github.com/MayukaJ/LLM-Boost .

Abdul Fatir Ansari, Lorenzo Stella, Caner Turkmen et al.

We introduce Chronos, a simple yet effective framework for pretrained probabilistic time series models. Chronos tokenizes time series values using scaling and quantization into a fixed vocabulary and trains existing transformer-based language model architectures on these tokenized time series via the cross-entropy loss. We pretrained Chronos models based on the T5 family (ranging from 20M to 710M parameters) on a large collection of publicly available datasets, complemented by a synthetic dataset that we generated via Gaussian processes to improve generalization. In a comprehensive benchmark consisting of 42 datasets, and comprising both classical local models and deep learning methods, we show that Chronos models: (a) significantly outperform other methods on datasets that were part of the training corpus; and (b) have comparable and occasionally superior zero-shot performance on new datasets, relative to methods that were trained specifically on them. Our results demonstrate that Chronos models can leverage time series data from diverse domains to improve zero-shot accuracy on unseen forecasting tasks, positioning pretrained models as a viable tool to greatly simplify forecasting pipelines.

Hossein Souri, Arpit Bansal, Hamid Kazemi et al.

Modern neural networks are often trained on massive datasets that are web scraped with minimal human inspection. As a result of this insecure curation pipeline, an adversary can poison or backdoor the resulting model by uploading malicious data to the internet and waiting for a victim to scrape and train on it. Existing approaches for creating poisons and backdoors start with randomly sampled clean data, called base samples, and then modify those samples to craft poisons. However, some base samples may be significantly more amenable to poisoning than others. As a result, we may be able to craft more potent poisons by carefully choosing the base samples. In this work, we use guided diffusion to synthesize base samples from scratch that lead to significantly more potent poisons and backdoors than previous state-of-the-art attacks. Our Guided Diffusion Poisoning (GDP) base samples can be combined with any downstream poisoning or backdoor attack to boost its effectiveness. Our implementation code is publicly available at: https://github.com/hsouri/GDP .

Ying Wang, Mengye Ren, Andrew Gordon Wilson

We propose In-Context Clustering (ICC), a flexible LLM-based procedure for clustering data from diverse distributions. Unlike traditional clustering algorithms constrained by predefined similarity measures, ICC flexibly captures complex relationships among inputs through an attention mechanism. We show that pretrained LLMs exhibit impressive zero-shot clustering capabilities on text-encoded numeric data, with attention matrices showing salient cluster patterns. Spectral clustering using attention matrices offers surprisingly competitive performance. We further enhance the clustering capabilities of LLMs on numeric and image data through fine-tuning using the Next Token Prediction (NTP) loss. Moreover, the flexibility of LLM prompting enables text-conditioned image clustering, a capability that classical clustering methods lack. Our work extends in-context learning to an unsupervised setting, showcasing the effectiveness and flexibility of LLMs for clustering. Our code is available at https://agenticlearning.ai/icc.

Sanyam Kapoor, Nate Gruver, Manley Roberts et al.

When using large language models (LLMs) in high-stakes applications, we need to know when we can trust their predictions. Some works argue that prompting high-performance LLMs is sufficient to produce calibrated uncertainties, while others introduce sampling methods that can be prohibitively expensive. In this work, we first argue that prompting on its own is insufficient to achieve good calibration and then show that fine-tuning on a small dataset of correct and incorrect answers can create an uncertainty estimate with good generalization and small computational overhead. We show that a thousand graded examples are sufficient to outperform baseline methods and that training through the features of a model is necessary for good performance and tractable for large open-source models when using LoRA. We also investigate the mechanisms that enable reliable LLM uncertainty estimation, finding that many models can be used as general-purpose uncertainty estimators, applicable not just to their own uncertainties but also the uncertainty of other models. Lastly, we show that uncertainty estimates inform human use of LLMs in human-AI collaborative settings through a user study.

Samuel Stanton, Wesley J. Maddox, Ian Delbridge et al.

Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a gold standard for performance in online settings, such as sample-efficient control and black box optimization, where we need to update a posterior distribution as we acquire data in a sequential fashion. However, updating a GP posterior to accommodate even a single new observation after having observed $n$ points incurs at least $O(n)$ computations in the exact setting. We show how to use structured kernel interpolation to efficiently recycle computations for constant-time $O(1)$ online updates with respect to the number of points $n$, while retaining exact inference. We demonstrate the promise of our approach in a range of online regression and classification settings, Bayesian optimization, and active sampling to reduce error in malaria incidence forecasting. Code is available at https://github.com/wjmaddox/online_gp.

Wesley J. Maddox, Shuai Tang, Pablo Garcia Moreno et al.

The inductive biases of trained neural networks are difficult to understand and, consequently, to adapt to new settings. We study the inductive biases of linearizations of neural networks, which we show to be surprisingly good summaries of the full network functions. Inspired by this finding, we propose a technique for embedding these inductive biases into Gaussian processes through a kernel designed from the Jacobian of the network. In this setting, domain adaptation takes the form of interpretable posterior inference, with accompanying uncertainty estimation. This inference is analytic and free of local optima issues found in standard techniques such as fine-tuning neural network weights to a new task. We develop significant computational speed-ups based on matrix multiplies, including a novel implementation for scalable Fisher vector products. Our experiments on both image classification and regression demonstrate the promise and convenience of this framework for transfer learning, compared to neural network fine-tuning. Code is available at https://github.com/amzn/xfer/tree/master/finite_ntk.

Gregory W. Benton, Wesley J. Maddox, Sanae Lotfi et al.

With a better understanding of the loss surfaces for multilayer networks, we can build more robust and accurate training procedures. Recently it was discovered that independently trained SGD solutions can be connected along one-dimensional paths of near-constant training loss. In this paper, we show that there are mode-connecting simplicial complexes that form multi-dimensional manifolds of low loss, connecting many independently trained models. Inspired by this discovery, we show how to efficiently build simplicial complexes for fast ensembling, outperforming independently trained deep ensembles in accuracy, calibration, and robustness to dataset shift. Notably, our approach only requires a few training epochs to discover a low-loss simplex, starting from a pre-trained solution. Code is available at https://github.com/g-benton/loss-surface-simplexes.

William Herlands, Edward McFowland, Andrew Gordon Wilson et al.

Identifying anomalous patterns in real-world data is essential for understanding where, when, and how systems deviate from their expected dynamics. Yet methods that separately consider the anomalousness of each individual data point have low detection power for subtle, emerging irregularities. Additionally, recent detection techniques based on subset scanning make strong independence assumptions and suffer degraded performance in correlated data. We introduce methods for identifying anomalous patterns in non-iid data by combining Gaussian processes with novel log-likelihood ratio statistic and subset scanning techniques. Our approaches are powerful, interpretable, and can integrate information across multiple data streams. We illustrate their performance on numeric simulations and three open source spatiotemporal datasets of opioid overdose deaths, 311 calls, and storm reports.

Nate Gruver, Anuroop Sriram, Andrea Madotto et al. · baidu, cmu

We propose fine-tuning large language models for generation of stable materials. While unorthodox, fine-tuning large language models on text-encoded atomistic data is simple to implement yet reliable, with around 90% of sampled structures obeying physical constraints on atom positions and charges. Using energy above hull calculations from both learned ML potentials and gold-standard DFT calculations, we show that our strongest model (fine-tuned LLaMA-2 70B) can generate materials predicted to be metastable at about twice the rate (49% vs 28%) of CDVAE, a competing diffusion model. Because of text prompting's inherent flexibility, our models can simultaneously be used for unconditional generation of stable material, infilling of partial structures and text-conditional generation. Finally, we show that language models' ability to capture key symmetries of crystal structures improves with model scale, suggesting that the biases of pretrained LLMs are surprisingly well-suited for atomistic data.

Yujia Zheng, Zijian Li, Shunxing Fan et al.

Given only observational data $X = g(Z)$, where both the latent variables $Z$ and the generating process $g$ are unknown, recovering $Z$ is ill-posed without additional assumptions. Existing methods often assume linearity or rely on auxiliary supervision and functional constraints. However, such assumptions are rarely verifiable in practice, and most theoretical guarantees break down under even mild violations, leaving uncertainty about how to reliably understand the hidden world. To make identifiability actionable in the real-world scenarios, we take a complementary view: in the general settings where full identifiability is unattainable, what can still be recovered with guarantees, and what biases could be universally adopted? We introduce the problem of diverse dictionary learning to formalize this view. Specifically, we show that intersections, complements, and symmetric differences of latent variables linked to arbitrary observations, along with the latent-to-observed dependency structure, are still identifiable up to appropriate indeterminacies even without strong assumptions. These set-theoretic results can be composed using set algebra to construct structured and essential views of the hidden world, such as genus-differentia definitions. When sufficient structural diversity is present, they further imply full identifiability of all latent variables. Notably, all identifiability benefits follow from a simple inductive bias during estimation that can be readily integrated into most models. We validate the theory and demonstrate the benefits of the bias on both synthetic and real-world data.

Luke Bhan, Hanyu Zhang, Andrew Gordon Wilson et al.

Monitoring forecasting systems is critical for customer satisfaction, profitability, and operational efficiency in large-scale retail businesses. We propose The Forecast Critic, a system that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) for automated forecast monitoring, taking advantage of their broad world knowledge and strong ``reasoning'' capabilities. As a prerequisite for this, we systematically evaluate the ability of LLMs to assess time series forecast quality, focusing on three key questions. (1) Can LLMs be deployed to perform forecast monitoring and identify obviously unreasonable forecasts? (2) Can LLMs effectively incorporate unstructured exogenous features to assess what a reasonable forecast looks like? (3) How does performance vary across model sizes and reasoning capabilities, measured across state-of-the-art LLMs? We present three experiments, including on both synthetic and real-world forecasting data. Our results show that LLMs can reliably detect and critique poor forecasts, such as those plagued by temporal misalignment, trend inconsistencies, and spike errors. The best-performing model we evaluated achieves an F1 score of 0.88, somewhat below human-level performance (F1 score: 0.97). We also demonstrate that multi-modal LLMs can effectively incorporate unstructured contextual signals to refine their assessment of the forecast. Models correctly identify missing or spurious promotional spikes when provided with historical context about past promotions (F1 score: 0.84). Lastly, we demonstrate that these techniques succeed in identifying inaccurate forecasts on the real-world M5 time series dataset, with unreasonable forecasts having an sCRPS at least 10% higher than that of reasonable forecasts. These findings suggest that LLMs, even without domain-specific fine-tuning, may provide a viable and scalable option for automated forecast monitoring and evaluation.

Ethan Baron, Alan N. Amin, Ruben Weitzman et al.

Many proteins useful in modern medicine or bioengineering are challenging to make in the lab, fuse with other proteins in cells, or deliver to tissues in the body, because their sequences are too long. Shortening these sequences typically involves costly, time-consuming experimental campaigns. Ideally, we could instead use modern models of massive databases of sequences from nature to learn how to propose shrunken proteins that resemble sequences found in nature. Unfortunately, these models struggle to efficiently search the combinatorial space of all deletions, and are not trained with inductive biases to learn how to delete. To address this gap, we propose SCISOR, a novel discrete diffusion model that deletes letters from sequences to generate protein samples that resemble those found in nature. To do so, SCISOR trains a de-noiser to reverse a forward noising process that adds random insertions to natural sequences. As a generative model, SCISOR fits evolutionary sequence data competitively with previous large models. In evaluation, SCISOR achieves state-of-the-art predictions of the functional effects of deletions on ProteinGym. Finally, we use the SCISOR de-noiser to shrink long protein sequences, and show that its suggested deletions result in significantly more realistic proteins and more often preserve functional motifs than previous models of evolutionary sequences.

Theodore Papamarkou, Maria Skoularidou, Konstantina Palla et al.

In the current landscape of deep learning research, there is a predominant emphasis on achieving high predictive accuracy in supervised tasks involving large image and language datasets. However, a broader perspective reveals a multitude of overlooked metrics, tasks, and data types, such as uncertainty, active and continual learning, and scientific data, that demand attention. Bayesian deep learning (BDL) constitutes a promising avenue, offering advantages across these diverse settings. This paper posits that BDL can elevate the capabilities of deep learning. It revisits the strengths of BDL, acknowledges existing challenges, and highlights some exciting research avenues aimed at addressing these obstacles. Looking ahead, the discussion focuses on possible ways to combine large-scale foundation models with BDL to unlock their full potential.

Samuel Lavoie, Polina Kirichenko, Mark Ibrahim et al.

There are a thousand ways to caption an image. Contrastive Language Pretraining (CLIP) on the other hand, works by mapping an image and its caption to a single vector -- limiting how well CLIP-like models can represent the diverse ways to describe an image. In this work, we introduce Llip, Latent Language Image Pretraining, which models the diversity of captions that could match an image. Llip's vision encoder outputs a set of visual features that are mixed into a final representation by conditioning on information derived from the text. We show that Llip outperforms non-contextualized baselines like CLIP and SigLIP on a variety of tasks even with large-scale encoders. Llip improves zero-shot classification by an average of 2.9% zero-shot classification benchmarks with a ViT-G/14 encoder. Specifically, Llip attains a zero-shot top-1 accuracy of 83.5% on ImageNet outperforming a similarly sized CLIP by 1.4%. We also demonstrate improvement on zero-shot retrieval on MS-COCO by 6.0%. We provide a comprehensive analysis of the components introduced by the method and demonstrate that Llip leads to richer visual representations.

Sanae Lotfi, Marc Finzi, Yilun Kuang et al.

Modern language models can contain billions of parameters, raising the question of whether they can generalize beyond the training data or simply parrot their training corpora. We provide the first non-vacuous generalization bounds for pretrained large language models (LLMs), indicating that language models are capable of discovering regularities that generalize to unseen data. In particular, we derive a compression bound that is valid for the unbounded log-likelihood loss using prediction smoothing, and we extend the bound to handle subsampling, accelerating bound computation by orders of magnitude on massive datasets. To achieve the extreme level of compression required for non-vacuous bounds, we devise SubLoRA, a simple low-dimensional nonlinear parameterization that leads to non-vacuous generalization bounds for models with nearly a billion parameters. Finally, we use our bounds to understand LLM generalization and find that larger models have better generalization bounds and are more compressible than smaller models.