NAJul 5, 2012
The GNAT method for nonlinear model reduction: effective implementation and application to computational fluid dynamics and turbulent flowsKevin Carlberg, Charbel Farhat, Julien Cortial et al.
The Gauss--Newton with approximated tensors (GNAT) method is a nonlinear model reduction method that operates on fully discretized computational models. It achieves dimension reduction by a Petrov--Galerkin projection associated with residual minimization; it delivers computational efficency by a hyper-reduction procedure based on the `gappy POD' technique. Originally presented in Ref. [1], where it was applied to implicit nonlinear structural-dynamics models, this method is further developed here and applied to the solution of a benchmark turbulent viscous flow problem. To begin, this paper develops global state-space error bounds that justify the method's design and highlight its advantages in terms of minimizing components of these error bounds. Next, the paper introduces a `sample mesh' concept that enables a distributed, computationally efficient implementation of the GNAT method in finite-volume-based computational-fluid-dynamics (CFD) codes. The suitability of GNAT for parameterized problems is highlighted with the solution of an academic problem featuring moving discontinuities. Finally, the capability of this method to reduce by orders of magnitude the core-hours required for large-scale CFD computations, while preserving accuracy, is demonstrated with the simulation of turbulent flow over the Ahmed body. For an instance of this benchmark problem with over 17 million degrees of freedom, GNAT outperforms several other nonlinear model-reduction methods, reduces the required computational resources by more than two orders of magnitude, and delivers a solution that differs by less than 1% from its high-dimensional counterpart.
NAJun 5, 2019
Model reduction of dynamical systems on nonlinear manifolds using deep convolutional autoencodersKookjin Lee, Kevin Carlberg
Nearly all model-reduction techniques project the governing equations onto a linear subspace of the original state space. Such subspaces are typically computed using methods such as balanced truncation, rational interpolation, the reduced-basis method, and (balanced) POD. Unfortunately, restricting the state to evolve in a linear subspace imposes a fundamental limitation to the accuracy of the resulting reduced-order model (ROM). In particular, linear-subspace ROMs can be expected to produce low-dimensional models with high accuracy only if the problem admits a fast decaying Kolmogorov $n$-width (e.g., diffusion-dominated problems). Unfortunately, many problems of interest exhibit a slowly decaying Kolmogorov $n$-width (e.g., advection-dominated problems). To address this, we propose a novel framework for projecting dynamical systems onto nonlinear manifolds using minimum-residual formulations at the time-continuous and time-discrete levels; the former leads to manifold Galerkin projection, while the latter leads to manifold least-squares Petrov--Galerkin (LSPG) projection. We perform analyses that provide insight into the relationship between these proposed approaches and classical linear-subspace reduced-order models; we also derive a posteriori discrete-time error bounds for the proposed approaches. In addition, we propose a computationally practical approach for computing the nonlinear manifold, which is based on convolutional autoencoders from deep learning. Finally, we demonstrate the ability of the method to significantly outperform even the optimal linear-subspace ROM on benchmark advection-dominated problems, thereby demonstrating the method's ability to overcome the intrinsic $n$-width limitations of linear subspaces.
LGJun 6, 2022
CROM: Continuous Reduced-Order Modeling of PDEs Using Implicit Neural RepresentationsPeter Yichen Chen, Jinxu Xiang, Dong Heon Cho et al.
The long runtime of high-fidelity partial differential equation (PDE) solvers makes them unsuitable for time-critical applications. We propose to accelerate PDE solvers using reduced-order modeling (ROM). Whereas prior ROM approaches reduce the dimensionality of discretized vector fields, our continuous reduced-order modeling (CROM) approach builds a low-dimensional embedding of the continuous vector fields themselves, not their discretization. We represent this reduced manifold using continuously differentiable neural fields, which may train on any and all available numerical solutions of the continuous system, even when they are obtained using diverse methods or discretizations. We validate our approach on an extensive range of PDEs with training data from voxel grids, meshes, and point clouds. Compared to prior discretization-dependent ROM methods, such as linear subspace proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) and nonlinear manifold neural-network-based autoencoders, CROM features higher accuracy, lower memory consumption, dynamically adaptive resolutions, and applicability to any discretization. For equal latent space dimension, CROM exhibits 79$\times$ and 49$\times$ better accuracy, and 39$\times$ and 132$\times$ smaller memory footprint, than POD and autoencoder methods, respectively. Experiments demonstrate 109$\times$ and 89$\times$ wall-clock speedups over unreduced models on CPUs and GPUs, respectively. Videos and codes are available on the project page: https://crom-pde.github.io
GROct 26, 2023
Neural Stress Fields for Reduced-order Elastoplasticity and FractureZeshun Zong, Xuan Li, Minchen Li et al.
We propose a hybrid neural network and physics framework for reduced-order modeling of elastoplasticity and fracture. State-of-the-art scientific computing models like the Material Point Method (MPM) faithfully simulate large-deformation elastoplasticity and fracture mechanics. However, their long runtime and large memory consumption render them unsuitable for applications constrained by computation time and memory usage, e.g., virtual reality. To overcome these barriers, we propose a reduced-order framework. Our key innovation is training a low-dimensional manifold for the Kirchhoff stress field via an implicit neural representation. This low-dimensional neural stress field (NSF) enables efficient evaluations of stress values and, correspondingly, internal forces at arbitrary spatial locations. In addition, we also train neural deformation and affine fields to build low-dimensional manifolds for the deformation and affine momentum fields. These neural stress, deformation, and affine fields share the same low-dimensional latent space, which uniquely embeds the high-dimensional simulation state. After training, we run new simulations by evolving in this single latent space, which drastically reduces the computation time and memory consumption. Our general continuum-mechanics-based reduced-order framework is applicable to any phenomena governed by the elastodynamics equation. To showcase the versatility of our framework, we simulate a wide range of material behaviors, including elastica, sand, metal, non-Newtonian fluids, fracture, contact, and collision. We demonstrate dimension reduction by up to 100,000X and time savings by up to 10X.
NAMar 27, 2018
Conservative model reduction for finite-volume modelsKevin Carlberg, Youngsoo Choi, Syuzanna Sargsyan
This work proposes a method for model reduction of finite-volume models that guarantees the resulting reduced-order model is conservative, thereby preserving the structure intrinsic to finite-volume discretizations. The proposed reduced-order models associate with optimization problems characterized by a minimum-residual objective function and nonlinear equality constraints that explicitly enforce conservation over subdomains. Conservative Galerkin projection arises from formulating this optimization problem at the time-continuous level, while conservative least-squares Petrov--Galerkin (LSPG) projection associates with a time-discrete formulation. We equip these approaches with hyper-reduction techniques in the case of nonlinear flux and source terms, and also provide approaches for handling infeasibility. In addition, we perform analyses that include deriving conditions under which conservative Galerkin and conservative LSPG are equivalent, as well as deriving a posteriori error bounds. Numerical experiments performed on a parameterized quasi-1D Euler equation demonstrate the ability of the proposed method to ensure not only global conservation, but also significantly lower state-space errors than nonconservative reduced-order models such as standard Galerkin and LSPG projection.
NAJan 21, 2016
Krylov-subspace recycling via the POD-augmented conjugate-gradient methodKevin Carlberg, Virginia Forstall, Ray Tuminaro
This work presents a new Krylov-subspace-recycling method for efficiently solving sequences of linear systems of equations characterized by varying right-hand sides and symmetric-positive-definite matrices. As opposed to typical truncation strategies used in recycling such as deflation, we propose a truncation method inspired by goal-oriented proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) from model reduction. This idea is based on the observation that model reduction aims to compute a low-dimensional subspace that contains an accurate solution; as such, we expect the proposed method to generate a low-dimensional subspace that is well suited for computing solutions that can satisfy inexact tolerances. In particular, we propose specific goal-oriented POD `ingredients' that align the optimality properties of POD with the objective of Krylov-subspace recycling. To compute solutions in the resulting `augmented' POD subspace, we propose a hybrid direct/iterative three-stage method that leverages 1) the optimal ordering of POD basis vectors, and 2) well-conditioned reduced matrices. Numerical experiments performed on solid-mechanics problems highlight te benefits of the proposed method over existing approaches for Krylov-subspace recycling.
NANov 12, 2018
Space-time least-squares Petrov-Galerkin projection for nonlinear model reductionYoungsoo Choi, Kevin Carlberg
This work proposes a space-time least-squares Petrov-Galerkin (ST-LSPG) projection method for model reduction of nonlinear dynamical systems. In contrast to typical nonlinear model-reduction methods that first apply (Petrov-)Galerkin projection in the spatial dimension and subsequently apply time integration to numerically resolve the resulting low-dimensional dynamical system, the proposed method applies projection in space and time simultaneously. To accomplish this, the method first introduces a low-dimensional space-time trial subspace, which can be obtained by computing tensor decompositions of state-snapshot data. The method then computes discrete-optimal approximations in this space-time trial subspace by minimizing the residual arising after time discretization over all space and time in a weighted $\ell^2$-norm. This norm can be defined to enable complexity reduction (i.e., hyper-reduction) in time, which leads to space-time collocation and space-time GNAT variants of the ST-LSPG method. Advantages of the approach relative to typical spatial-projection-based nonlinear model reduction methods such as Galerkin projection and least-squares Petrov-Galerkin projection include: (1) a reduction of both the spatial and temporal dimensions of the dynamical system, (2) the removal of spurious temporal modes (e.g., unstable growth) from the state space, and (3) error bounds that exhibit slower growth in time. Numerical examples performed on model problems in fluid dynamics demonstrate the ability of the method to generate orders-of-magnitude computational savings relative to spatial-projection-based reduced-order models without sacrificing accuracy.
NAOct 23, 2014
Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecastingKevin Carlberg, Jaideep Ray, Bart van Bloemen Waanders
Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to 1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equations at future time steps, and 2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. The goal is to generate an a ccurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of lin ear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.
LGNov 6, 2025
Accelerating scientific discovery with the common task frameworkJ. Nathan Kutz, Peter Battaglia, Michael Brenner et al.
Machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms are transforming and empowering the characterization and control of dynamic systems in the engineering, physical, and biological sciences. These emerging modeling paradigms require comparative metrics to evaluate a diverse set of scientific objectives, including forecasting, state reconstruction, generalization, and control, while also considering limited data scenarios and noisy measurements. We introduce a common task framework (CTF) for science and engineering, which features a growing collection of challenge data sets with a diverse set of practical and common objectives. The CTF is a critically enabling technology that has contributed to the rapid advance of ML/AI algorithms in traditional applications such as speech recognition, language processing, and computer vision. There is a critical need for the objective metrics of a CTF to compare the diverse algorithms being rapidly developed and deployed in practice today across science and engineering.
NAJan 5, 2017
Stochastic Least-Squares Petrov-Galerkin Method for Parameterized Linear SystemsKookjin Lee, Kevin Carlberg, Howard C. Elman
We consider the numerical solution of parameterized linear systems where the system matrix, the solution, and the right-hand side are parameterized by a set of uncertain input parameters. We explore spectral methods in which the solutions are approximated in a chosen finite-dimensional subspace. It has been shown that the stochastic Galerkin projection technique fails to minimize any measure of the solution error [20]. As a remedy for this, we propose a novel stochastic least-squares Petrov--Galerkin (LSPG) method. The proposed method is optimal in the sense that it produces the solution that minimizes a weighted l2-norm of the residual over all solutions in a given finite-dimensional subspace. Moreover, the method can be adapted to minimize the solution error in different weighted l2-norms by simply applying a weighting function within the least-squares formulation. In addition, a goal-oriented semi-norm induced by an output quantity of interest can be minimized by defining a weighting function as a linear functional of the solution. We establish optimality and error bounds for the proposed method, and extensive numerical experiments show that the weighted LSPG methods outperforms other spectral methods in minimizing corresponding target weighted norms.
CVOct 7, 2022
Learning a Visually Grounded Memory AssistantMeera Hahn, Kevin Carlberg, Ruta Desai et al.
We introduce a novel interface for large scale collection of human memory and assistance. Using the 3D Matterport simulator we create a realistic indoor environments in which we have people perform specific embodied memory tasks that mimic household daily activities. This interface was then deployed on Amazon Mechanical Turk allowing us to test and record human memory, navigation and needs for assistance at a large scale that was previously impossible. Using the interface we collect the `The Visually Grounded Memory Assistant Dataset' which is aimed at developing our understanding of (1) the information people encode during navigation of 3D environments and (2) conditions under which people ask for memory assistance. Additionally we experiment with with predicting when people will ask for assistance using models trained on hand-selected visual and semantic features. This provides an opportunity to build stronger ties between the machine-learning and cognitive-science communities through learned models of human perception, memory, and cognition.
AINov 10, 2025
DigiData: Training and Evaluating General-Purpose Mobile Control AgentsYuxuan Sun, Manchen Wang, Shengyi Qian et al.
AI agents capable of controlling user interfaces have the potential to transform human interaction with digital devices. To accelerate this transformation, two fundamental building blocks are essential: high-quality datasets that enable agents to achieve complex and human-relevant goals, and robust evaluation methods that allow researchers and practitioners to rapidly enhance agent performance. In this paper, we introduce DigiData, a large-scale, high-quality, diverse, multi-modal dataset designed for training mobile control agents. Unlike existing datasets, which derive goals from unstructured interactions, DigiData is meticulously constructed through comprehensive exploration of app features, resulting in greater diversity and higher goal complexity. Additionally, we present DigiData-Bench, a benchmark for evaluating mobile control agents on real-world complex tasks. We demonstrate that the commonly used step-accuracy metric falls short in reliably assessing mobile control agents and, to address this, we propose dynamic evaluation protocols and AI-powered evaluations as rigorous alternatives for agent assessment. Our contributions aim to significantly advance the development of mobile control agents, paving the way for more intuitive and effective human-device interactions.
MLFeb 3, 2024Code
Accelerating Look-ahead in Bayesian Optimization: Multilevel Monte Carlo is All you NeedShangda Yang, Vitaly Zankin, Maximilian Balandat et al.
We leverage multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) to improve the performance of multi-step look-ahead Bayesian optimization (BO) methods that involve nested expectations and maximizations. Often these expectations must be computed by Monte Carlo (MC). The complexity rate of naive MC degrades for nested operations, whereas MLMC is capable of achieving the canonical MC convergence rate for this type of problem, independently of dimension and without any smoothness assumptions. Our theoretical study focuses on the approximation improvements for twoand three-step look-ahead acquisition functions, but, as we discuss, the approach is generalizable in various ways, including beyond the context of BO. Our findings are verified numerically and the benefits of MLMC for BO are illustrated on several benchmark examples. Code is available at https://github.com/Shangda-Yang/MLMCBO .
CVOct 25, 2025
Benchmarking Egocentric Multimodal Goal Inference for Assistive Wearable AgentsVijay Veerabadran, Fanyi Xiao, Nitin Kamra et al.
There has been a surge of interest in assistive wearable agents: agents embodied in wearable form factors (e.g., smart glasses) who take assistive actions toward a user's goal/query (e.g. "Where did I leave my keys?"). In this work, we consider the important complementary problem of inferring that goal from multi-modal contextual observations. Solving this "goal inference" problem holds the promise of eliminating the effort needed to interact with such an agent. This work focuses on creating WAGIBench, a strong benchmark to measure progress in solving this problem using vision-language models (VLMs). Given the limited prior work in this area, we collected a novel dataset comprising 29 hours of multimodal data from 348 participants across 3,477 recordings, featuring ground-truth goals alongside accompanying visual, audio, digital, and longitudinal contextual observations. We validate that human performance exceeds model performance, achieving 93% multiple-choice accuracy compared with 84% for the best-performing VLM. Generative benchmark results that evaluate several families of modern vision-language models show that larger models perform significantly better on the task, yet remain far from practical usefulness, as they produce relevant goals only 55% of the time. Through a modality ablation, we show that models benefit from extra information in relevant modalities with minimal performance degradation from irrelevant modalities.
LGSep 25, 2021
Model reduction for the material point method via an implicit neural representation of the deformation mapPeter Yichen Chen, Maurizio M. Chiaramonte, Eitan Grinspun et al.
This work proposes a model-reduction approach for the material point method on nonlinear manifolds. Our technique approximates the $\textit{kinematics}$ by approximating the deformation map using an implicit neural representation that restricts deformation trajectories to reside on a low-dimensional manifold. By explicitly approximating the deformation map, its spatiotemporal gradients -- in particular the deformation gradient and the velocity -- can be computed via analytical differentiation. In contrast to typical model-reduction techniques that construct a linear or nonlinear manifold to approximate the (finite number of) degrees of freedom characterizing a given spatial discretization, the use of an implicit neural representation enables the proposed method to approximate the $\textit{continuous}$ deformation map. This allows the kinematic approximation to remain agnostic to the discretization. Consequently, the technique supports dynamic discretizations -- including resolution changes -- during the course of the online reduced-order-model simulation. To generate $\textit{dynamics}$ for the generalized coordinates, we propose a family of projection techniques. At each time step, these techniques: (1) Calculate full-space kinematics at quadrature points, (2) Calculate the full-space dynamics for a subset of `sample' material points, and (3) Calculate the reduced-space dynamics by projecting the updated full-space position and velocity onto the low-dimensional manifold and tangent space, respectively. We achieve significant computational speedup via hyper-reduction that ensures all three steps execute on only a small subset of the problem's spatial domain. Large-scale numerical examples with millions of material points illustrate the method's ability to gain an order of magnitude computational-cost saving -- indeed $\textit{real-time simulations}$ -- with negligible errors.
HCOct 14, 2020
Optimal Assistance for Object-Rearrangement Tasks in Augmented RealityBenjamin Newman, Kevin Carlberg, Ruta Desai
Augmented-reality (AR) glasses that will have access to onboard sensors and an ability to display relevant information to the user present an opportunity to provide user assistance in quotidian tasks. Many such tasks can be characterized as object-rearrangement tasks. We introduce a novel framework for computing and displaying AR assistance that consists of (1) associating an optimal action sequence with the policy of an embodied agent and (2) presenting this sequence to the user as suggestions in the AR system's heads-up display. The embodied agent comprises a "hybrid" between the AR system and the user, with the AR system's observation space (i.e., sensors) and the user's action space (i.e., task-execution actions); its policy is learned by minimizing the task-completion time. In this initial study, we assume that the AR system's observations include the environment's map and localization of the objects and the user. These choices allow us to formalize the problem of computing AR assistance for any object-rearrangement task as a planning problem, specifically as a capacitated vehicle-routing problem. Further, we introduce a novel AR simulator that can enable web-based evaluation of AR-like assistance and associated at-scale data collection via the Habitat simulator for embodied artificial intelligence. Finally, we perform a study that evaluates user response to the proposed form of AR assistance on a specific quotidian object-rearrangement task, house cleaning, using our proposed AR simulator on mechanical turk. In particular, we study the effect of the proposed AR assistance on users' task performance and sense of agency over a range of task difficulties. Our results indicate that providing users with such assistance improves their overall performance and while users report a negative impact to their agency, they may still prefer the proposed assistance to having no assistance at all.
NAJul 12, 2017
Data-driven time parallelism via forecastingKevin Carlberg, Lukas Brencher, Bernard Haasdonk et al.
This work proposes a data-driven method for enabling the efficient, stable time-parallel numerical solution of systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The method assumes that low-dimensional bases that accurately capture the time evolution of the state are available. The method adopts the parareal framework for time parallelism, which is defined by an initialization method, a coarse propagator, and a fine propagator. Rather than employing usual approaches for initialization and coarse propagation, we propose novel data-driven techniques that leverage the available time-evolution bases. The coarse propagator is defined by a forecast (proposed in Ref. [12]) applied locally within each coarse time interval, which comprises the following steps: (1) apply the fine propagator for a small number of time steps, (2) approximate the state over the entire coarse time interval using gappy POD with the local time-evolution bases, and (3) select the approximation at the end of the time interval as the propagated state. We also propose both local-forecast and global-forecast initialization. The method is particularly well suited for POD-based reduced-order models (ROMs). In this case, spatial parallelism quickly saturates, as the ROM dynamical system is low dimensional; thus, time parallelism is needed to enable lower wall times. Further, the time-evolution bases can be extracted from the (readily available) right singular vectors arising during POD computation. In addition to performing analyses related to the method's accuracy, speedup, stability, and convergence, we also numerically demonstrate the method's performance. Here, numerical experiments on ROMs for a nonlinear convection-reaction problem demonstrate the method's ability to realize near-ideal speedups; global-forecast initialization with a local-forecast coarse propagator leads to the best performance.
NAMay 31, 2017
Error modeling for surrogates of dynamical systems using machine learningSumeet Trehan, Kevin Carlberg, Louis J. Durlofsky
A machine-learning-based framework for modeling the error introduced by surrogate models of parameterized dynamical systems is proposed. The framework entails the use of high-dimensional regression techniques (e.g., random forests, LASSO) to map a large set of inexpensively computed `error indicators' (i.e., features) produced by the surrogate model at a given time instance to a prediction of the surrogate-model error in a quantity of interest (QoI). This eliminates the need for the user to hand-select a small number of informative features. The methodology requires a training set of parameter instances at which the time-dependent surrogate-model error is computed by simulating both the high-fidelity and surrogate models. Using these training data, the method first determines regression-model locality (via classification or clustering), and subsequently constructs a `local' regression model to predict the time-instantaneous error within each identified region of feature space. We consider two uses for the resulting error model: (1) as a correction to the surrogate-model QoI prediction at each time instance, and (2) as a way to statistically model arbitrary functions of the time-dependent surrogate-model error (e.g., time-integrated errors). We apply the proposed framework to model errors in reduced-order models of nonlinear oil--water subsurface flow simulations. The reduced-order models used in this work entail application of trajectory piecewise linearization with proper orthogonal decomposition. When the first use of the method is considered, numerical experiments demonstrate consistent improvement in accuracy in the time-instantaneous QoI prediction relative to the original surrogate model, across a large number of test cases. When the second use is considered, results show that the proposed method provides accurate statistical predictions of the time- and well-averaged errors.
NAAug 16, 2016
Galerkin v. least-squares Petrov--Galerkin projection in nonlinear model reductionKevin Carlberg, Matthew Barone, Harbir Antil
Least-squares Petrov--Galerkin (LSPG) model-reduction techniques such as the Gauss--Newton with Approximated Tensors (GNAT) method have shown promise, as they have generated stable, accurate solutions for large-scale turbulent, compressible flow problems where standard Galerkin techniques have failed. However, there has been limited comparative analysis of the two approaches. This is due in part to difficulties arising from the fact that Galerkin techniques perform optimal projection associated with residual minimization at the time-continuous level, while LSPG techniques do so at the time-discrete level. This work provides a detailed theoretical and computational comparison of the two techniques for two common classes of time integrators: linear multistep schemes and Runge--Kutta schemes. We present a number of new findings, including conditions under which the LSPG ROM has a time-continuous representation, conditions under which the two techniques are equivalent, and time-discrete error bounds for the two approaches. Perhaps most surprisingly, we demonstrate both theoretically and computationally that decreasing the time step does not necessarily decrease the error for the LSPG ROM; instead, the time step should be `matched' to the spectral content of the reduced basis. In numerical experiments carried out on a turbulent compressible-flow problem with over one million unknowns, we show that increasing the time step to an intermediate value decreases both the error and the simulation time of the LSPG reduced-order model by an order of magnitude.
NAMay 20, 2014
The ROMES method for statistical modeling of reduced-order-model errorMartin Drohmann, Kevin Carlberg
This work presents a technique for statistically modeling errors introduced by reduced-order models. The method employs Gaussian-process regression to construct a mapping from a small number of computationally inexpensive `error indicators' to a distribution over the true error. The variance of this distribution can be interpreted as the (epistemic) uncertainty introduced by the reduced-order model. To model normed errors, the method employs existing rigorous error bounds and residual norms as indicators; numerical experiments show that the method leads to a near-optimal expected effectivity in contrast to typical error bounds. To model errors in general outputs, the method uses dual-weighted residuals---which are amenable to uncertainty control---as indicators. Experiments illustrate that correcting the reduced-order-model output with this surrogate can improve prediction accuracy by an order of magnitude; this contrasts with existing `multifidelity correction' approaches, which often fail for reduced-order models and suffer from the curse of dimensionality. The proposed error surrogates also lead to a notion of `probabilistic rigor', i.e., the surrogate bounds the error with specified probability.