Gábor Lugosi

Urmisha Chatterjee, Karissa Huang, Ritabrata Karmakar et al.

We study a generalization of the classical hidden clique problem to graphs with real-valued edge weights. Formally, we define a hypothesis testing problem. Under the null hypothesis, edges of a complete graph on $n$ vertices are associated with independent and identically distributed edge weights from a distribution $P$. Under the alternate hypothesis, $k$ vertices are chosen at random and the edge weights between them are drawn from a distribution $Q$, while the remaining are sampled from $P$. The goal is to decide, upon observing the edge weights, which of the two hypotheses they were generated from. We investigate the problem under two different scenarios: (1) when $P$ and $Q$ are completely known, and (2) when there is only partial information of $P$ and $Q$. In the first scenario, we obtain statistical limits on $k$ when the two hypotheses are distinguishable, and when they are not. Additionally, in each of the scenarios, we provide bounds on the minimal risk of the hypothesis testing problem when $Q$ is not absolutely continuous with respect to $P$. We also provide computationally efficient spectral tests that can distinguish the two hypotheses as long as $k=Ω(\sqrt{n})$ in both the scenarios.

Simon Briend, Francisco Calvillo, Gábor Lugosi

We study the problem of finding the root vertex in large growing networks. We prove that it is possible to construct confidence sets of size independent of the number of vertices in the network that contain the root vertex with high probability in various models of random networks. The models include uniform random recursive dags and uniform Cooper-Frieze random graphs.

Spencer Compton, Gábor Lugosi, Jaouad Mourtada et al.

We study density estimation in Kullback-Leibler divergence: given an i.i.d. sample from an unknown density $p$, the goal is to construct an estimator $\widehat p$ such that $\mathrm{KL}(p,\widehat p)$ is small with high probability. We consider two settings involving a finite dictionary of $M$ densities: (i) model aggregation, where $p$ belongs to the dictionary, and (ii) convex aggregation (mixture density estimation), where $p$ is a mixture of densities from the dictionary. Crucially, we make no assumption on the base densities: their ratios may be unbounded and their supports may differ. For both problems, we identify the best possible high-probability guarantees in terms of the dictionary size, sample size, and confidence level. These optimal rates are higher than those achievable when density ratios are bounded by absolute constants; for mixture density estimation, they match existing lower bounds in the special case of discrete distributions. Our analysis of the mixture case hinges on two new covering results. First, we provide a sharp, distribution-free upper bound on the local Hellinger entropy of the class of mixtures of $M$ distributions. Second, we prove an optimal ratio covering theorem for convex sets: for every convex compact set $K\subset \mathbb{R}_+^d$, there exists a subset $A\subset K$ with at most $2^{8d}$ elements such that each element of $K$ is coordinate-wise dominated by an element of $A$ up to a universal constant factor. This geometric result is of independent interest; notably, it yields new cardinality estimates for $\varepsilon$-approximate Pareto sets in multi-objective optimization when the attainable set of objective vectors is convex.

Sofiya Burova, Francisco Calvillo, Gábor Lugosi et al.

We consider the problem of testing properties of graphs underlying high-dimensional graphical models. We adopt the model of covariance queries introduced by Lugosi, Truszkowski, Velona, and Zwiernik (2021). We study the case when the underlying graph is a tree. The main results of the paper show that, while reconstructing the entire tree may be costly, certain global structural properties can be tested efficiently. In particular, we design randomized tests for global structural properties that use a sub-quadratic number of queries. We develop testing procedures for several fundamental properties, including the number of leaves, the maximum degree, the typical distance, and the diameter of the tree. For each property, we obtain explicit query complexity bounds that depend on the target threshold and tolerance parameters.

Simon Briend, Gábor Lugosi, Roberto Imbuzeiro Oliveira

Tukey's depth (or halfspace depth) is a widely used measure of centrality for multivariate data. However, exact computation of Tukey's depth is known to be a hard problem in high dimensions. As a remedy, randomized approximations of Tukey's depth have been proposed. In this paper we explore when such randomized algorithms return a good approximation of Tukey's depth. We study the case when the data are sampled from a log-concave isotropic distribution. We prove that, if one requires that the algorithm runs in polynomial time in the dimension, the randomized algorithm correctly approximates the maximal depth $1/2$ and depths close to zero. On the other hand, for any point of intermediate depth, any good approximation requires exponential complexity.

Gábor Lugosi, Marcos Matabuena

This paper introduces a framework for uncertainty quantification in regression models defined in metric spaces. Leveraging a newly defined notion of homoscedasticity, we develop a conformal prediction algorithm that offers finite-sample coverage guarantees and fast convergence rates of the oracle estimator. In heteroscedastic settings, we forgo these non-asymptotic guarantees to gain statistical efficiency, proposing a local $k$--nearest--neighbor method without conformal calibration that is adaptive to the geometry of each particular nonlinear space. Both procedures work with any regression algorithm and are scalable to large data sets, allowing practitioners to plug in their preferred models and incorporate domain expertise. We prove consistency for the proposed estimators under minimal conditions. Finally, we demonstrate the practical utility of our approach in personalized--medicine applications involving random response objects such as probability distributions and graph Laplacians.

Simon Briend, Christophe Giraud, Gábor Lugosi et al.

This paper studies the problem of estimating the order of arrival of the vertices in a random recursive tree. Specifically, we study two fundamental models: the uniform attachment model and the linear preferential attachment model. We propose an order estimator based on the Jordan centrality measure and define a family of risk measures to quantify the quality of the ordering procedure. Moreover, we establish a minimax lower bound for this problem, and prove that the proposed estimator is nearly optimal. Finally, we numerically demonstrate that the proposed estimator outperforms degree-based and spectral ordering procedures.

Gábor Lugosi, Gergely Neu

We present a new framework for deriving bounds on the generalization bound of statistical learning algorithms from the perspective of online learning. Specifically, we construct an online learning game called the "generalization game", where an online learner is trying to compete with a fixed statistical learning algorithm in predicting the sequence of generalization gaps on a training set of i.i.d. data points. We establish a connection between the online and statistical learning setting by showing that the existence of an online learning algorithm with bounded regret in this game implies a bound on the generalization error of the statistical learning algorithm, up to a martingale concentration term that is independent of the complexity of the statistical learning method. This technique allows us to recover several standard generalization bounds including a range of PAC-Bayesian and information-theoretic guarantees, as well as generalizations thereof.

Gábor Lugosi, Gergely Neu

Since the celebrated works of Russo and Zou (2016,2019) and Xu and Raginsky (2017), it has been well known that the generalization error of supervised learning algorithms can be bounded in terms of the mutual information between their input and the output, given that the loss of any fixed hypothesis has a subgaussian tail. In this work, we generalize this result beyond the standard choice of Shannon's mutual information to measure the dependence between the input and the output. Our main result shows that it is indeed possible to replace the mutual information by any strongly convex function of the joint input-output distribution, with the subgaussianity condition on the losses replaced by a bound on an appropriately chosen norm capturing the geometry of the dependence measure. This allows us to derive a range of generalization bounds that are either entirely new or strengthen previously known ones. Examples include bounds stated in terms of $p$-norm divergences and the Wasserstein-2 distance, which are respectively applicable for heavy-tailed loss distributions and highly smooth loss functions. Our analysis is entirely based on elementary tools from convex analysis by tracking the growth of a potential function associated with the dependence measure and the loss function.

Gábor Lugosi, Ciara Pike-Burke, Pierre-André Savalle

The fidelity bandits problem is a variant of the $K$-armed bandit problem in which the reward of each arm is augmented by a fidelity reward that provides the player with an additional payoff depending on how 'loyal' the player has been to that arm in the past. We propose two models for fidelity. In the loyalty-points model the amount of extra reward depends on the number of times the arm has previously been played. In the subscription model the additional reward depends on the current number of consecutive draws of the arm. We consider both stochastic and adversarial problems. Since single-arm strategies are not always optimal in stochastic problems, the notion of regret in the adversarial setting needs careful adjustment. We introduce three possible notions of regret and investigate which can be bounded sublinearly. We study in detail the special cases of increasing, decreasing and coupon (where the player gets an additional reward after every $m$ plays of an arm) fidelity rewards. For the models which do not necessarily enjoy sublinear regret, we provide a worst case lower bound. For those models which exhibit sublinear regret, we provide algorithms and bound their regret.

Gábor Lugosi, Gergely Neu, Julia Olkhovskaya

We study a family online influence maximization problems where in a sequence of rounds $t=1,\ldots,T$, a decision maker selects one from a large number of agents with the goal of maximizing influence. Upon choosing an agent, the decision maker shares a piece of information with the agent, which information then spreads in an unobserved network over which the agents communicate. The goal of the decision maker is to select the sequence of agents in a way that the total number of influenced nodes in the network. In this work, we consider a scenario where the networks are generated independently for each $t$ according to some fixed but unknown distribution, so that the set of influenced nodes corresponds to the connected component of the random graph containing the vertex corresponding to the selected agent. Furthermore, we assume that the decision maker only has access to limited feedback: instead of making the unrealistic assumption that the entire network is observable, we suppose that the available feedback is generated based on a small neighborhood of the selected vertex. Our results show that such partial local observations can be sufficient for maximizing global influence. We model the underlying random graph as a sparse inhomogeneous Erdős--Rényi graph, and study three specific families of random graph models in detail: stochastic block models, Chung--Lu models and Kronecker random graphs. We show that in these cases one may learn to maximize influence by merely observing the degree of the selected vertex in the generated random graph. We propose sequential learning algorithms that aim at maximizing influence, and provide their theoretical analysis in both the subcritical and supercritical regimes of all considered models.

Peter L. Bartlett, Philip M. Long, Gábor Lugosi et al.

The phenomenon of benign overfitting is one of the key mysteries uncovered by deep learning methodology: deep neural networks seem to predict well, even with a perfect fit to noisy training data. Motivated by this phenomenon, we consider when a perfect fit to training data in linear regression is compatible with accurate prediction. We give a characterization of linear regression problems for which the minimum norm interpolating prediction rule has near-optimal prediction accuracy. The characterization is in terms of two notions of the effective rank of the data covariance. It shows that overparameterization is essential for benign overfitting in this setting: the number of directions in parameter space that are unimportant for prediction must significantly exceed the sample size. By studying examples of data covariance properties that this characterization shows are required for benign overfitting, we find an important role for finite-dimensional data: the accuracy of the minimum norm interpolating prediction rule approaches the best possible accuracy for a much narrower range of properties of the data distribution when the data lies in an infinite dimensional space versus when the data lies in a finite dimensional space whose dimension grows faster than the sample size.

Gábor Lugosi, Jakub Truszkowski, Vasiliki Velona et al.

We study the problem of recovering the structure underlying large Gaussian graphical models or, more generally, partial correlation graphs. In high-dimensional problems it is often too costly to store the entire sample covariance matrix. We propose a new input model in which one can query single entries of the covariance matrix. We prove that it is possible to recover the support of the inverse covariance matrix with low query and computational complexity. Our algorithms work in a regime when this support is represented by tree-like graphs and, more generally, for graphs of small treewidth. Our results demonstrate that for large classes of graphs, the structure of the corresponding partial correlation graphs can be determined much faster than even computing the empirical covariance matrix.

Julia Olkhovskaya, Gergely Neu, Gábor Lugosi

We consider an online influence maximization problem in which a decision maker selects a node among a large number of possibilities and places a piece of information at the node. The node transmits the information to some others that are in the same connected component in a random graph. The goal of the decision maker is to reach as many nodes as possible, with the added complication that feedback is only available about the degree of the selected node. Our main result shows that such local observations can be sufficient for maximizing global influence in two broadly studied families of random graph models: stochastic block models and Chung--Lu models. With this insight, we propose a bandit algorithm that aims at maximizing local (and thus global) influence, and provide its theoretical analysis in both the subcritical and supercritical regimes of both considered models. Notably, our performance guarantees show no explicit dependence on the total number of nodes in the network, making our approach well-suited for large-scale applications.

Gábor Lugosi, Mihalis G. Markakis, Gergely Neu

We consider a repeated newsvendor problem where the inventory manager has no prior information about the demand, and can access only censored/sales data. In analogy to multi-armed bandit problems, the manager needs to simultaneously "explore" and "exploit" with her inventory decisions, in order to minimize the cumulative cost. We make no probabilistic assumptions---importantly, independence or time stationarity---regarding the mechanism that creates the demand sequence. Our goal is to shed light on the hardness of the problem, and to develop policies that perform well with respect to the regret criterion, that is, the difference between the cumulative cost of a policy and that of the best fixed action/static inventory decision in hindsight, uniformly over all feasible demand sequences. We show that a simple randomized policy, termed the Exponentially Weighted Forecaster, combined with a carefully designed cost estimator, achieves optimal scaling of the expected regret (up to logarithmic factors) with respect to all three key primitives: the number of time periods, the number of inventory decisions available, and the demand support. Through this result, we derive an important insight: the benefit from "information stalking" as well as the cost of censoring are both negligible in this dynamic learning problem, at least with respect to the regret criterion. Furthermore, we modify the proposed policy in order to perform well in terms of the tracking regret, that is, using as benchmark the best sequence of inventory decisions that switches a limited number of times. Numerical experiments suggest that the proposed approach outperforms existing ones (that are tailored to, or facilitated by, time stationarity) on nonstationary demand models. Finally, we extend the proposed approach and its analysis to a "combinatorial" version of the repeated newsvendor problem.

Nicolò Cesa-Bianchi, Claudio Gentile, Gábor Lugosi et al.

Boltzmann exploration is a classic strategy for sequential decision-making under uncertainty, and is one of the most standard tools in Reinforcement Learning (RL). Despite its widespread use, there is virtually no theoretical understanding about the limitations or the actual benefits of this exploration scheme. Does it drive exploration in a meaningful way? Is it prone to misidentifying the optimal actions or spending too much time exploring the suboptimal ones? What is the right tuning for the learning rate? In this paper, we address several of these questions in the classic setup of stochastic multi-armed bandits. One of our main results is showing that the Boltzmann exploration strategy with any monotone learning-rate sequence will induce suboptimal behavior. As a remedy, we offer a simple non-monotone schedule that guarantees near-optimal performance, albeit only when given prior access to key problem parameters that are typically not available in practical situations (like the time horizon $T$ and the suboptimality gap $Δ$). More importantly, we propose a novel variant that uses different learning rates for different arms, and achieves a distribution-dependent regret bound of order $\frac{K\log^2 T}Δ$ and a distribution-independent bound of order $\sqrt{KT}\log K$ without requiring such prior knowledge. To demonstrate the flexibility of our technique, we also propose a variant that guarantees the same performance bounds even if the rewards are heavy-tailed.

Tongliang Liu, Gábor Lugosi, Gergely Neu et al.

We introduce a notion of algorithmic stability of learning algorithms---that we term \emph{argument stability}---that captures stability of the hypothesis output by the learning algorithm in the normed space of functions from which hypotheses are selected. The main result of the paper bounds the generalization error of any learning algorithm in terms of its argument stability. The bounds are based on martingale inequalities in the Banach space to which the hypotheses belong. We apply the general bounds to bound the performance of some learning algorithms based on empirical risk minimization and stochastic gradient descent.

Yevgeny Seldin, Gábor Lugosi

We present a new strategy for gap estimation in randomized algorithms for multiarmed bandits and combine it with the EXP3++ algorithm of Seldin and Slivkins (2014). In the stochastic regime the strategy reduces dependence of regret on a time horizon from $(\ln t)^3$ to $(\ln t)^2$ and eliminates an additive factor of order $Δe^{1/Δ^2}$, where $Δ$ is the minimal gap of a problem instance. In the adversarial regime regret guarantee remains unchanged.

Gábor Lugosi, Shahar Mendelson

We study the problem of estimating the mean of a random vector $X$ given a sample of $N$ independent, identically distributed points. We introduce a new estimator that achieves a purely sub-Gaussian performance under the only condition that the second moment of $X$ exists. The estimator is based on a novel concept of a multivariate median.

Gábor Lugosi, Shahar Mendelson

A regularized risk minimization procedure for regression function estimation is introduced that achieves near optimal accuracy and confidence under general conditions, including heavy-tailed predictor and response variables. The procedure is based on median-of-means tournaments, introduced by the authors in [8]. It is shown that the new procedure outperforms standard regularized empirical risk minimization procedures such as lasso or slope in heavy-tailed problems.

Luc Devroye, Gábor Lugosi, Gergely Neu

We propose a version of the follow-the-perturbed-leader online prediction algorithm in which the cumulative losses are perturbed by independent symmetric random walks. The forecaster is shown to achieve an expected regret of the optimal order O(sqrt(n log N)) where n is the time horizon and N is the number of experts. More importantly, it is shown that the forecaster changes its prediction at most O(sqrt(n log N)) times, in expectation. We also extend the analysis to online combinatorial optimization and show that even in this more general setting, the forecaster rarely switches between experts while having a regret of near-optimal order.

Sébastien Bubeck, Nicolò Cesa-Bianchi, Gábor Lugosi

The stochastic multi-armed bandit problem is well understood when the reward distributions are sub-Gaussian. In this paper we examine the bandit problem under the weaker assumption that the distributions have moments of order 1+ε, for some $ε\in (0,1]$. Surprisingly, moments of order 2 (i.e., finite variance) are sufficient to obtain regret bounds of the same order as under sub-Gaussian reward distributions. In order to achieve such regret, we define sampling strategies based on refined estimators of the mean such as the truncated empirical mean, Catoni's M-estimator, and the median-of-means estimator. We also derive matching lower bounds that also show that the best achievable regret deteriorates when ε<1.

Jean-Yves Audibert, Sébastien Bubeck, Gábor Lugosi

We address online linear optimization problems when the possible actions of the decision maker are represented by binary vectors. The regret of the decision maker is the difference between her realized loss and the best loss she would have achieved by picking, in hindsight, the best possible action. Our goal is to understand the magnitude of the best possible (minimax) regret. We study the problem under three different assumptions for the feedback the decision maker receives: full information, and the partial information models of the so-called "semi-bandit" and "bandit" problems. Combining the Mirror Descent algorithm and the INF (Implicitely Normalized Forecaster) strategy, we are able to prove optimal bounds for the semi-bandit case. We also recover the optimal bounds for the full information setting. In the bandit case we discuss existing results in light of a new lower bound, and suggest a conjecture on the optimal regret in that case. Finally we also prove that the standard exponentially weighted average forecaster is provably suboptimal in the setting of online combinatorial optimization.