11.8LGJun 15, 2022
Online Contextual Decision-Making with a Smart Predict-then-Optimize MethodHeyuan Liu, Paul Grigas
We study an online contextual decision-making problem with resource constraints. At each time period, the decision-maker first predicts a reward vector and resource consumption matrix based on a given context vector and then solves a downstream optimization problem to make a decision. The final goal of the decision-maker is to maximize the summation of the reward and the utility from resource consumption, while satisfying the resource constraints. We propose an algorithm that mixes a prediction step based on the "Smart Predict-then-Optimize (SPO)" method with a dual update step based on mirror descent. We prove regret bounds and demonstrate that the overall convergence rate of our method depends on the $\mathcal{O}(T^{-1/2})$ convergence of online mirror descent as well as risk bounds of the surrogate loss function used to learn the prediction model. Our algorithm and regret bounds apply to a general convex feasible region for the resource constraints, including both hard and soft resource constraint cases, and they apply to a wide class of prediction models in contrast to the traditional settings of linear contextual models or finite policy spaces. We also conduct numerical experiments to empirically demonstrate the strength of our proposed SPO-type methods, as compared to traditional prediction-error-only methods, on multi-dimensional knapsack and longest path instances.
8.8LGMay 11, 2023
Active Learning For Contextual Linear Optimization: A Margin-Based ApproachMo Liu, Paul Grigas, Heyuan Liu et al.
We develop the first active learning method for contextual linear optimization. Specifically, we introduce a label acquisition algorithm that sequentially decides whether to request the ``labels'' of feature samples from an unlabeled data stream, where the labels correspond to the coefficients of the objective in the linear optimization. Our method is the first to be directly informed by the decision loss induced by the predicted coefficients, referred to as the Smart Predict-then-Optimize (SPO) loss. Motivated by the structure of the SPO loss, our algorithm adopts a margin-based criterion utilizing the concept of distance to degeneracy. In particular, we design an efficient active learning algorithm with theoretical excess risk (i.e., generalization) guarantees. We derive upper bounds on the label complexity, defined as the number of samples whose labels are acquired to achieve a desired small level of SPO risk. These bounds show that our algorithm has a much smaller label complexity than the naive supervised learning approach that labels all samples, particularly when the SPO loss is minimized directly on the collected data. To address the discontinuity and nonconvexity of the SPO loss, we derive label complexity bounds under tractable surrogate loss functions. Under natural margin conditions, these bounds also outperform naive supervised learning. Using the SPO+ loss, a specialized surrogate of the SPO loss, we establish even tighter bounds under separability conditions. Finally, we present numerical evidence showing the practical value of our algorithms in settings such as personalized pricing and the shortest path problem.