Kai Ying

Ziqing Ma, Kai Ying, Xinyue Gu et al.

Accurate day-ahead solar irradiance forecasting is essential for integrating solar energy into the power grid. However, it remains challenging due to the pronounced diurnal cycle and inherently complex cloud dynamics. Current methods either lack fine-scale resolution (e.g., numerical weather prediction, weather foundation models) or degrade at longer lead times (e.g., satellite extrapolation). We propose Baguan-solar, a two-stage multimodal framework that fuses forecasts from Baguan, a global weather foundation model, with high-resolution geostationary satellite imagery to produce 24- hour irradiance forecasts at kilometer scale. Its decoupled two-stage design first forecasts day-night continuous intermediates (e.g., cloud cover) and then infers irradiance, while its modality fusion jointly preserves fine-scale cloud structures from satellite and large-scale constraints from Baguan forecasts. Evaluated over East Asia using CLDAS as ground truth, Baguan-solar outperforms strong baselines (including ECMWF IFS, vanilla Baguan, and SolarSeer), reducing RMSE by 16.08% and better resolving cloud-induced transients. An operational deployment of Baguan-solar has supported solar power forecasting in an eastern province in China, since July 2025. Our code is accessible at https://github.com/DAMO-DI-ML/Baguansolar. git.

Yiyuan Yang, Zichuan Liu, Lei Song et al.

Time series anomaly detection is critical across various domains, yet current approaches often limit analysis to mere binary anomaly classification without detailed categorization or further explanatory reasoning. To address these limitations, we propose a novel task, Time-series Reasoning for Anomaly (Time-RA) that transforms classical time series anomaly detection from a discriminative into a generative, reasoning-intensive task leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs). Also, we introduce the first real-world multimodal benchmark dataset, RATs40K, explicitly annotated for anomaly reasoning, comprising approximately 40,000 samples across 10 real-world domains. Each sample includes numeric time series data, contextual text information, and visual representations, each annotated with fine-grained categories (14 types for univariate anomalies and 6 for multivariate anomalies) and structured explanatory reasoning. We develop a sophisticated annotation framework utilizing ensemble-generated labels refined through GPT-4-driven feedback, ensuring accuracy and interpretability. Extensive benchmarking of LLMs and multimodal LLMs demonstrates the capabilities and limitations of current models, highlighting the critical role of supervised fine-tuning. Our dataset and task pave the way for significant advancements in interpretable time series anomaly detection and reasoning. The code (https://github.com/yyysjz1997/Time-RA) and dataset (https://huggingface.co/datasets/Time-RA/RATs40K) have been fully open-sourced to support and accelerate future research in this area.

Zheng Wang, Kai Ying, Bin Xu et al.

Accurate near-real-time precipitation retrieval has been enhanced by satellite-based technologies. However, infrared-based algorithms have low accuracy due to weak relations with surface precipitation, whereas passive microwave and radar-based methods are more accurate but limited in range. This challenge motivates the Precipitation Retrieval Expansion (PRE) task, which aims to enable accurate, infrared-based full-disc precipitation retrievals beyond the scanning swath. We introduce Multimodal Knowledge Expansion, a two-stage pipeline with the proposed PRE-Net model. In the Swath-Distilling stage, PRE-Net transfers knowledge from a multimodal data integration model to an infrared-based model within the scanning swath via Coordinated Masking and Wavelet Enhancement (CoMWE). In the Full-Disc Adaptation stage, Self-MaskTune refines predictions across the full disc by balancing multimodal and full-disc infrared knowledge. Experiments on the introduced PRE benchmark demonstrate that PRE-Net significantly advanced precipitation retrieval performance, outperforming leading products like PERSIANN-CCS, PDIR, and IMERG. The code will be available at https://github.com/Zjut-MultimediaPlus/PRE-Net.