Patrick Bloebaum

Francesco Montagna, Philipp M. Faller, Patrick Bloebaum et al.

Causal discovery from observational data holds great promise, but existing methods rely on strong assumptions about the underlying causal structure, often requiring full observability of all relevant variables. We tackle these challenges by leveraging the score function $\nabla \log p(X)$ of observed variables for causal discovery and propose the following contributions. First, we fine-tune the existing identifiability results with the score on additive noise models, showing that their assumption of nonlinearity of the causal mechanisms is not necessary. Second, we establish conditions for inferring causal relations from the score even in the presence of hidden variables; this result is two-faced: we demonstrate the score's potential to infer the equivalence class of causal graphs with hidden variables (while previous results are restricted to the fully observable setting), and we provide sufficient conditions for identifying direct causes in latent variable models. Building on these insights, we propose a flexible algorithm suited for causal discovery on linear, nonlinear, and latent variable models, which we empirically validate.

Lenon Minorics, Caner Turkmen, David Kernert et al.

This paper proposes a new approach for testing Granger non-causality on panel data. Instead of aggregating panel member statistics, we aggregate their corresponding p-values and show that the resulting p-value approximately bounds the type I error by the chosen significance level even if the panel members are dependent. We compare our approach against the most widely used Granger causality algorithm on panel data and show that our approach yields lower FDR at the same power for large sample sizes and panels with cross-sectional dependencies. Finally, we examine COVID-19 data about confirmed cases and deaths measured in countries/regions worldwide and show that our approach is able to discover the true causal relation between confirmed cases and deaths while state-of-the-art approaches fail.

Kailash Budhathoki, Dominik Janzing, Patrick Bloebaum et al.

We describe a formal approach based on graphical causal models to identify the "root causes" of the change in the probability distribution of variables. After factorizing the joint distribution into conditional distributions of each variable, given its parents (the "causal mechanisms"), we attribute the change to changes of these causal mechanisms. This attribution analysis accounts for the fact that mechanisms often change independently and sometimes only some of them change. Through simulations, we study the performance of our distribution change attribution method. We then present a real-world case study identifying the drivers of the difference in the income distribution between men and women.