Yu-Hsueh Fang

Yu-Hsueh Fang, Chia-Yen Lee

Online Conformal Prediction (CP) struggles to balance temporal adaptability and structural stability. Feedback-driven methods (e.g., Adaptive Conformal Inference (ACI)) suffer from systemic marginal under-coverage and high interval variance during abrupt shifts, while temporally discounted Bayesian CP suffers from severe structural lag and uncalibrated interval bloat. We propose State-Adaptive Bayesian Conformal Prediction (SA-BCP) to achieve optimal spatio-temporal decoupling. By gating long-term temporal inertia with spatial kernel-density evidence, SA-BCP proactively expands intervals for recognized historical regimes while maintaining tight efficiency during stable states. We rigorously prove this mechanism's optimality, identifying a minimax bias-variance tradeoff governed by an evidence threshold $K$. Extensive benchmarks on volatile financial datasets (2016--2026), including AMD, Gold, and GBP/USD, demonstrate that SA-BCP consistently minimizes the strictly proper Winkler score across diverse confidence levels. Specifically, SA-BCP resolves the systematic under-coverage inherent to ACI variants while simultaneously reducing the uncalibrated interval bloat of Bayesian CP by 10\% to 37\% under high-confidence requests. By elegantly navigating this tradeoff, SA-BCP achieves an optimal balance between conditional reliability and predictive efficiency.

Yu-Hsueh Fang

Gaussian process (GP) inference in Python is dominated by libraries such as GPyTorch and GPflow, which are built on deep-learning frameworks and inherit their dispatch overhead and dependency footprint. We present LightGP, a dependency-free C++17 library for GP regression with Python bindings, supporting Apple Metal and NVIDIA CUDA backends alongside tuned CPU paths via Apple Accelerate and OpenBLAS. LightGP provides four inference paths -- exact Cholesky, matrix-free conjugate gradients, sparse variational free energy, and structured kernel interpolation with FFT -- covering problems from $N{=}100$ to $N{=}500{,}000$. On an Apple M4, LightGP CPU is 2.6--8.7$\times$ faster than GPyTorch CPU for exact GP and ${\sim}1.5\times$ faster for sparse GP at every scale tested. On an NVIDIA RTX~3060, LightGP CUDA is 2.3--6.7$\times$ faster than GPyTorch CUDA for exact GP up to $N{=}2{,}048$, with GPyTorch closing the gap at $N{=}4{,}096$. A fused matrix-free kernel-vector product on Metal achieves 32$\times$ over the explicit path at $N{=}20{,}000$ with $O(N)$ memory, and an FFT-accelerated SKI matvec via Accelerate vDSP runs in sub-millisecond time at $N{=}200{,}000$. LightGP compiles as a single static library with zero external dependencies and is installable via \texttt{pip install lightgp

Yu-Hsueh Fang, Chia-Yen Lee

In the field of machine learning, regression problems are pivotal due to their ability to predict continuous outcomes. Traditional error metrics like mean squared error, mean absolute error, and coefficient of determination measure model accuracy. The model accuracy is the consequence of the selected model and the features, which blurs the analysis of contribution. Predictability, in the other hand, focus on the predictable level of a target variable given a set of features. This study introduces conditional entropy estimators to assess predictability in regression problems, bridging this gap. We enhance and develop reliable conditional entropy estimators, particularly the KNIFE-P estimator and LMC-P estimator, which offer under- and over-estimation, providing a practical framework for predictability analysis. Extensive experiments on synthesized and real-world datasets demonstrate the robustness and utility of these estimators. Additionally, we extend the analysis to the coefficient of determination \(R^2 \), enhancing the interpretability of predictability. The results highlight the effectiveness of KNIFE-P and LMC-P in capturing the achievable performance and limitations of feature sets, providing valuable tools in the development of regression models. These indicators offer a robust framework for assessing the predictability for regression problems.