Andrés Abeliuk

Cinthia Sánchez, Hernan Sarmiento, Andres Abeliuk et al.

Social media data has emerged as a useful source of timely information about real-world crisis events. One of the main tasks related to the use of social media for disaster management is the automatic identification of crisis-related messages. Most of the studies on this topic have focused on the analysis of data for a particular type of event in a specific language. This limits the possibility of generalizing existing approaches because models cannot be directly applied to new types of events or other languages. In this work, we study the task of automatically classifying messages that are related to crisis events by leveraging cross-language and cross-domain labeled data. Our goal is to make use of labeled data from high-resource languages to classify messages from other (low-resource) languages and/or of new (previously unseen) types of crisis situations. For our study we consolidated from the literature a large unified dataset containing multiple crisis events and languages. Our empirical findings show that it is indeed possible to leverage data from crisis events in English to classify the same type of event in other languages, such as Spanish and Italian (80.0% F1-score). Furthermore, we achieve good performance for the cross-domain task (80.0% F1-score) in a cross-lingual setting. Overall, our work contributes to improving the data scarcity problem that is so important for multilingual crisis classification. In particular, mitigating cold-start situations in emergency events, when time is of essence.

Francisco Plana, Andrés Abeliuk, Jorge Pérez

We present a simple and quick method to approximate network centrality indexes. Our approach, called QuickCent, is inspired by so-called fast and frugal heuristics, which are heuristics initially proposed to model some human decision and inference processes. The centrality index that we estimate is the harmonic centrality, which is a measure based on shortest-path distances, so infeasible to compute on large networks. We compare QuickCent with known machine learning algorithms on synthetic data generated with preferential attachment, and some empirical networks. Our experiments show that QuickCent is able to make estimates that are competitive in accuracy with the best alternative methods tested, either on synthetic scale-free networks or empirical networks. QuickCent has the feature of achieving low error variance estimates, even with a small training set. Moreover, QuickCent is comparable in efficiency -- accuracy and time cost -- to those produced by more complex methods. We discuss and provide some insight into how QuickCent exploits the fact that in some networks, such as those generated by preferential attachment, local density measures such as the in-degree, can be a proxy for the size of the network region to which a node has access, opening up the possibility of approximating centrality indices based on size such as the harmonic centrality. Our initial results show that simple heuristics and biologically inspired computational methods are a promising line of research in the context of network measure estimations.

Daniel M. Benjamin, Fred Morstatter, Ali E. Abbas et al. · stanford

Sound decision-making relies on accurate prediction for tangible outcomes ranging from military conflict to disease outbreaks. To improve crowdsourced forecasting accuracy, we developed SAGE, a hybrid forecasting system that combines human and machine generated forecasts. The system provides a platform where users can interact with machine models and thus anchor their judgments on an objective benchmark. The system also aggregates human and machine forecasts weighting both for propinquity and based on assessed skill while adjusting for overconfidence. We present results from the Hybrid Forecasting Competition (HFC) - larger than comparable forecasting tournaments - including 1085 users forecasting 398 real-world forecasting problems over eight months. Our main result is that the hybrid system generated more accurate forecasts compared to a human-only baseline which had no machine generated predictions. We found that skilled forecasters who had access to machine-generated forecasts outperformed those who only viewed historical data. We also demonstrated the inclusion of machine-generated forecasts in our aggregation algorithms improved performance, both in terms of accuracy and scalability. This suggests that hybrid forecasting systems, which potentially require fewer human resources, can be a viable approach for maintaining a competitive level of accuracy over a larger number of forecasting questions.

Lucas Carrasco, Felipe Urrutia, Andrés Abeliuk

This paper introduces a novel algorithm for constructing decision trees using large language models (LLMs) in a zero-shot manner based on Classification and Regression Trees (CART) principles. Traditional decision tree induction methods rely heavily on labeled data to recursively partition data using criteria such as information gain or the Gini index. In contrast, we propose a method that uses the pre-trained knowledge embedded in LLMs to build decision trees without requiring training data. Our approach leverages LLMs to perform operations essential for decision tree construction, including attribute discretization, probability calculation, and Gini index computation based on the probabilities. We show that these zero-shot decision trees can outperform baseline zero-shot methods and achieve competitive performance compared to supervised data-driven decision trees on tabular datasets. The decision trees constructed via this method provide transparent and interpretable models, addressing data scarcity while preserving interpretability. This work establishes a new baseline in low-data machine learning, offering a principled, knowledge-driven alternative to data-driven tree construction.

Andrés Abeliuk, Vanessa Gaete, Naim Bro

Large Language Models (LLMs) excel in text generation and understanding, especially in simulating socio-political and economic patterns, serving as an alternative to traditional surveys. However, their global applicability remains questionable due to unexplored biases across socio-demographic and geographic contexts. This study examines how LLMs perform across diverse populations by analyzing public surveys from Chile and the United States, focusing on predictive accuracy and fairness metrics. The results show performance disparities, with LLM consistently outperforming on U.S. datasets. This bias originates from the U.S.-centric training data, remaining evident after accounting for socio-demographic differences. In the U.S., political identity and race significantly influence prediction accuracy, while in Chile, gender, education, and religious affiliation play more pronounced roles. Our study presents a novel framework for measuring socio-demographic biases in LLMs, offering a path toward ensuring fairer and more equitable model performance across diverse socio-cultural contexts.

Sebastián Tinoco, Andrés Abeliuk, Javier Ruiz del Solar

Algorithmic pricing is increasingly shaping market competition, raising concerns about its potential to compromise competitive dynamics. While prior work has shown that reinforcement learning (RL)-based pricing algorithms can lead to tacit collusion, less attention has been given to the role of macroeconomic factors in shaping these dynamics. This study examines the role of inflation in influencing algorithmic collusion within competitive markets. By incorporating inflation shocks into a RL-based pricing model, we analyze whether agents adapt their strategies to sustain supra-competitive profits. Our findings indicate that inflation reduces market competitiveness by fostering implicit coordination among agents, even without direct collusion. However, despite achieving sustained higher profitability, agents fail to develop robust punishment mechanisms to deter deviations from equilibrium strategies. The results suggest that inflation amplifies non-competitive dynamics in algorithmic pricing, emphasizing the need for regulatory oversight in markets where AI-driven pricing is prevalent.

Zihao He, Negar Mokhberian, Antonio Camara et al.

Growing polarization of the news media has been blamed for fanning disagreement, controversy and even violence. Early identification of polarized topics is thus an urgent matter that can help mitigate conflict. However, accurate measurement of topic-wise polarization is still an open research challenge. To address this gap, we propose Partisanship-aware Contextualized Topic Embeddings (PaCTE), a method to automatically detect polarized topics from partisan news sources. Specifically, utilizing a language model that has been finetuned on recognizing partisanship of the news articles, we represent the ideology of a news corpus on a topic by corpus-contextualized topic embedding and measure the polarization using cosine distance. We apply our method to a dataset of news articles about the COVID-19 pandemic. Extensive experiments on different news sources and topics demonstrate the efficacy of our method to capture topical polarization, as indicated by its effectiveness of retrieving the most polarized topics.

Akira Matsui, Emilio Ferrara, Fred Morstatter et al.

Crowdwork often entails tackling cognitively-demanding and time-consuming tasks. Crowdsourcing can be used for complex annotation tasks, from medical imaging to geospatial data, and such data powers sensitive applications, such as health diagnostics or autonomous driving. However, the existence and prevalence of underperforming crowdworkers is well-recognized, and can pose a threat to the validity of crowdsourcing. In this study, we propose the use of a computational framework to identify clusters of underperforming workers using clickstream trajectories. We focus on crowdsourced geopolitical forecasting. The framework can reveal different types of underperformers, such as workers with forecasts whose accuracy is far from the consensus of the crowd, those who provide low-quality explanations for their forecasts, and those who simply copy-paste their forecasts from other users. Our study suggests that clickstream clustering and analysis are fundamental tools to diagnose the performance of crowdworkers in platforms leveraging the wisdom of crowds.

Nazgol Tavabi, Andrés Abeliuk, Negar Mokhberian et al.

The ability to accurately predict cyber-attacks would enable organizations to mitigate their growing threat and avert the financial losses and disruptions they cause. But how predictable are cyber-attacks? Researchers have attempted to combine external data -- ranging from vulnerability disclosures to discussions on Twitter and the darkweb -- with machine learning algorithms to learn indicators of impending cyber-attacks. However, successful cyber-attacks represent a tiny fraction of all attempted attacks: the vast majority are stopped, or filtered by the security appliances deployed at the target. As we show in this paper, the process of filtering reduces the predictability of cyber-attacks. The small number of attacks that do penetrate the target's defenses follow a different generative process compared to the whole data which is much harder to learn for predictive models. This could be caused by the fact that the resulting time series also depends on the filtering process in addition to all the different factors that the original time series depended on. We empirically quantify the loss of predictability due to filtering using real-world data from two organizations. Our work identifies the limits to forecasting cyber-attacks from highly filtered data.

Sunshine Chong, Andrés Abeliuk

Recommendation systems today exert a strong influence on consumer behavior and individual perceptions of the world. By using collaborative filtering (CF) methods to create recommendations, it generates a continuous feedback loop in which user behavior becomes magnified in the algorithmic system. Popular items get recommended more frequently, creating the bias that affects and alters user preferences. In order to visualize and compare the different biases, we will analyze the effects of recommendation systems and quantify the inequalities resulting from them.

Nazgol Tavabi, Homa Hosseinmardi, Jennifer L. Villatte et al.

Continuous collection of physiological data from wearable sensors enables temporal characterization of individual behaviors. Understanding the relation between an individual's behavioral patterns and psychological states can help identify strategies to improve quality of life. One challenge in analyzing physiological data is extracting the underlying behavioral states from the temporal sensor signals and interpreting them. Here, we use a non-parametric Bayesian approach to model sensor data from multiple people and discover the dynamic behaviors they share. We apply this method to data collected from sensors worn by a population of hospital workers and show that the learned states can cluster participants into meaningful groups and better predict their cognitive and psychological states. This method offers a way to learn interpretable compact behavioral representations from multivariate sensor signals.

Mert Ozer, Anna Sapienza, Andrés Abeliuk et al.

How is popularity gained online? Is being successful strictly related to rapidly becoming viral in an online platform or is it possible to acquire popularity in a steady and disciplined fashion? What are other temporal characteristics that can unveil the popularity of online content? To answer these questions, we leverage a multi-faceted temporal analysis of the evolution of popular online contents. Here, we present dipm-SC: a multi-dimensional shape-based time-series clustering algorithm with a heuristic to find the optimal number of clusters. First, we validate the accuracy of our algorithm on synthetic datasets generated from benchmark time series models. Second, we show that dipm-SC can uncover meaningful clusters of popularity behaviors in a real-world Twitter dataset. By clustering the multidimensional time-series of the popularity of contents coupled with other domain-specific dimensions, we uncover two main patterns of popularity: bursty and steady temporal behaviors. Moreover, we find that the way popularity is gained over time has no significant impact on the final cumulative popularity.

Nazgol Tavabi, Nathan Bartley, Andrés Abeliuk et al.

The deep and darkweb (d2web) refers to limited access web sites that require registration, authentication, or more complex encryption protocols to access them. These web sites serve as hubs for a variety of illicit activities: to trade drugs, stolen user credentials, hacking tools, and to coordinate attacks and manipulation campaigns. Despite its importance to cyber crime, the d2web has not been systematically investigated. In this paper, we study a large corpus of messages posted to 80 d2web forums over a period of more than a year. We identify topics of discussion using LDA and use a non-parametric HMM to model the evolution of topics across forums. Then, we examine the dynamic patterns of discussion and identify forums with similar patterns. We show that our approach surfaces hidden similarities across different forums and can help identify anomalous events in this rich, heterogeneous data.

Palash Goyal, KSM Tozammel Hossain, Ashok Deb et al.

Cyber attacks are growing in frequency and severity. Over the past year alone we have witnessed massive data breaches that stole personal information of millions of people and wide-scale ransomware attacks that paralyzed critical infrastructure of several countries. Combating the rising cyber threat calls for a multi-pronged strategy, which includes predicting when these attacks will occur. The intuition driving our approach is this: during the planning and preparation stages, hackers leave digital traces of their activities on both the surface web and dark web in the form of discussions on platforms like hacker forums, social media, blogs and the like. These data provide predictive signals that allow anticipating cyber attacks. In this paper, we describe machine learning techniques based on deep neural networks and autoregressive time series models that leverage external signals from publicly available Web sources to forecast cyber attacks. Performance of our framework across ground truth data over real-world forecasting tasks shows that our methods yield a significant lift or increase of F1 for the top signals on predicted cyber attacks. Our results suggest that, when deployed, our system will be able to provide an effective line of defense against various types of targeted cyber attacks.

Richard Kim, Max Kleiman-Weiner, Andres Abeliuk et al.

We introduce a new computational model of moral decision making, drawing on a recent theory of commonsense moral learning via social dynamics. Our model describes moral dilemmas as a utility function that computes trade-offs in values over abstract moral dimensions, which provide interpretable parameter values when implemented in machine-led ethical decision-making. Moreover, characterizing the social structures of individuals and groups as a hierarchical Bayesian model, we show that a useful description of an individual's moral values - as well as a group's shared values - can be inferred from a limited amount of observed data. Finally, we apply and evaluate our approach to data from the Moral Machine, a web application that collects human judgments on moral dilemmas involving autonomous vehicles.

Manuel Alfonseca, Manuel Cebrian, Antonio Fernandez Anta et al.

Superintelligence is a hypothetical agent that possesses intelligence far surpassing that of the brightest and most gifted human minds. In light of recent advances in machine intelligence, a number of scientists, philosophers and technologists have revived the discussion about the potential catastrophic risks entailed by such an entity. In this article, we trace the origins and development of the neo-fear of superintelligence, and some of the major proposals for its containment. We argue that such containment is, in principle, impossible, due to fundamental limits inherent to computing itself. Assuming that a superintelligence will contain a program that includes all the programs that can be executed by a universal Turing machine on input potentially as complex as the state of the world, strict containment requires simulations of such a program, something theoretically (and practically) infeasible.

Andres Abeliuk, Haris Aziz, Gerardo Berbeglia et al.

We propose a model of interdependent scheduling games in which each player controls a set of services that they schedule independently. A player is free to schedule his own services at any time; however, each of these services only begins to accrue reward for the player when all predecessor services, which may or may not be controlled by the same player, have been activated. This model, where players have interdependent services, is motivated by the problems faced in planning and coordinating large-scale infrastructures, e.g., restoring electricity and gas to residents after a natural disaster or providing medical care in a crisis when different agencies are responsible for the delivery of staff, equipment, and medicine. We undertake a game-theoretic analysis of this setting and in particular consider the issues of welfare maximization, computing best responses, Nash dynamics, and existence and computation of Nash equilibria.