Michael Potter

Chen Liu, Xiaomeng Dong, Michael Potter et al.

Focal Loss has reached incredible popularity as it uses a simple technique to identify and utilize hard examples to achieve better performance on classification. However, this method does not easily generalize outside of classification tasks, such as in keypoint detection. In this paper, we propose a novel adaptation of Focal Loss for keypoint detection tasks, called Adversarial Focal Loss (AFL). AFL not only is semantically analogous to Focal loss, but also works as a plug-and-chug upgrade for arbitrary loss functions. While Focal Loss requires output from a classifier, AFL leverages a separate adversarial network to produce a difficulty score for each input. This difficulty score can then be used to dynamically prioritize learning on hard examples, even in absence of a classifier. In this work, we show AFL's effectiveness in enhancing existing methods in keypoint detection and verify its capability to re-weigh examples based on difficulty.

Michael Potter, Benny Cheng

We propose to integrate weapon system features (such as weapon system manufacturer, deployment time and location, storage time and location, etc.) into a parameterized Cox-Weibull [1] reliability model via a neural network, like DeepSurv [2], to improve predictive maintenance. In parallel, we develop an alternative Bayesian model by parameterizing the Weibull parameters with a neural network and employing dropout methods such as Monte-Carlo (MC)-dropout for comparative purposes. Due to data collection procedures in weapon system testing we employ a novel interval-censored log-likelihood which incorporates Monte-Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) [3] sampling of the Weibull parameters during gradient descent optimization. We compare classification metrics such as receiver operator curve (ROC) area under the curve (AUC), precision-recall (PR) AUC, and F scores to show our model generally outperforms traditional powerful models such as XGBoost and the current standard conditional Weibull probability density estimation model.

Michael Potter, Rahil Bhowal, Richard Zhao et al.

In response to the critical need for effective reconnaissance in disaster scenarios, this research article presents the design and implementation of a complete autonomous robot system using the Turtlebot3 with Robotic Operating System (ROS) Noetic. Upon deployment in closed, initially unknown environments, the system aims to generate a comprehensive map and identify any present 'victims' using AprilTags as stand-ins. We discuss our solution for search and rescue missions, while additionally exploring more advanced algorithms to improve search and rescue functionalities. We introduce a Cubature Kalman Filter to help reduce the mean squared error [m] for AprilTag localization and an information-theoretic exploration algorithm to expedite exploration in unknown environments. Just like turtles, our system takes it slow and steady, but when it's time to save the day, it moves at ninja-like speed! Despite Donatello's shell, he's no slowpoke - he zips through obstacles with the agility of a teenage mutant ninja turtle. So, hang on tight to your shells and get ready for a whirlwind of reconnaissance! Full pipeline code https://github.com/rzhao5659/MRProject/tree/main Exploration code https://github.com/rzhao5659/MRProject/tree/main

Michael Potter, Miru Jun

We implement a Bayesian inference process for Neural Networks to model the time to failure of highly reliable weapon systems with interval-censored data and time-varying covariates. We analyze and benchmark our approach, LaplaceNN, on synthetic and real datasets with standard classification metrics such as Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Area Under Curve (AUC) Precision-Recall (PR) AUC, and reliability curve visualizations.

Michael Potter, Beyza Kalkanlı, Deniz Erdoğmuş et al.

Identifying the optimal diagnostic test and hardware system instance to infer reliability characteristics using field data is challenging, especially when constrained by fixed budgets and minimal maintenance cycles. Active Learning (AL) has shown promise for parameter inference with limited data and budget constraints in machine learning/deep learning tasks. However, AL for reliability model parameter inference remains underexplored for repairable hardware systems. It requires specialized AL Acquisition Functions (AFs) that consider hardware aging and the fact that a hardware system consists of multiple sub-systems, which may undergo only partial testing during a given diagnostic test. To address these challenges, we propose a relaxed Mixed Integer Semidefinite Program (MISDP) AL AF that incorporates Diagnostic Coverage (DC), Fisher Information Matrices (FIMs), and diagnostic testing budgets. Furthermore, we design empirical-based simulation experiments focusing on two diagnostic testing scenarios: (1) partial tests of a hardware system with overlapping subsystem coverage, and (2) partial tests where one diagnostic test fully subsumes the subsystem coverage of another. We evaluate our proposed approach against the most widely used AL AF in the literature (entropy), as well as several intuitive AL AFs tailored for reliability model parameter inference. Our proposed AF ranked best on average among the alternative AFs across 6,000 experimental configurations, with respect to Area Under the Curve (AUC) of the Absolute Total Expected Event Error (ATEER) and Mean Squared Error (MSE) curves, with statistical significance calculated at a 0.05 alpha level using a Friedman hypothesis test.

Michael Potter, Stefano Maxenti, Michael Everett

Survival Analysis (SA) models the time until an event occurs, with applications in fields like medicine, defense, finance, and aerospace. Recent research indicates that Neural Networks (NNs) can effectively capture complex data patterns in SA, whereas simple generalized linear models often fall short in this regard. However, dataset uncertainties (e.g., noisy measurements, human error) can degrade NN model performance. To address this, we leverage advances in NN verification to develop training objectives for robust, fully-parametric SA models. Specifically, we propose an adversarially robust loss function based on a Min-Max optimization problem. We employ CROWN-Interval Bound Propagation (CROWN-IBP) to tackle the computational challenges inherent in solving this Min-Max problem. Evaluated over 10 SurvSet datasets, our method, Survival Analysis with Adversarial Regularization (SAWAR), consistently outperforms baseline adversarial training methods and state-of-the-art (SOTA) deep SA models across various covariate perturbations with respect to Negative Log Likelihood (NegLL), Integrated Brier Score (IBS), and Concordance Index (CI) metrics. Thus, we demonstrate that adversarial robustness enhances SA predictive performance and calibration, mitigating data uncertainty and improving generalization across diverse datasets by up to 150% compared to baselines.