Mark A. Kramer

Mark A. Kramer, Aanchal Mathur, Caroline E. Adams et al.

This paper explores the use of large language models (LLMs) to assist in the development of new disease modules for Synthea, an open-source synthetic health data generator. Incorporating LLMs into the module development process has the potential to reduce development time, reduce required expertise, expand model diversity, and improve the overall quality of synthetic patient data. We demonstrate four ways that LLMs can support Synthea module creation: generating a disease profile, generating a disease module from a disease profile, evaluating an existing Synthea module, and refining an existing module. We introduce the concept of progressive refinement, which involves iteratively evaluating the LLM-generated module by checking its syntactic correctness and clinical accuracy, and then using that information to modify the module. While the use of LLMs in this context shows promise, we also acknowledge the challenges and limitations, such as the need for human oversight, the importance of rigorous testing and validation, and the potential for inaccuracies in LLM-generated content. The paper concludes with recommendations for future research and development to fully realize the potential of LLM-aided synthetic data creation.

Mark A. Kramer, Allen Leavens, Alexander Scarlat

Policy documents, such as legislation, regulations, and executive orders, are crucial in shaping society. However, their length and complexity make interpretation and application challenging and time-consuming. Artificial intelligence (AI), particularly large language models (LLMs), has the potential to automate the process of analyzing these documents, improving accuracy and efficiency. This study aims to evaluate the potential of AI in streamlining policy analysis and to identify the strengths and limitations of current AI approaches. The research focuses on question answering and tasks involving content extraction from policy documents. A case study was conducted using Executive Order 14110 on "Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence" as a test case. Four commercial AI systems were used to analyze the document and answer a set of representative policy questions. The performance of the AI systems was compared to manual analysis conducted by human experts. The study found that two AI systems, Gemini 1.5 Pro and Claude 3 Opus, demonstrated significant potential for supporting policy analysis, providing accurate and reliable information extraction from complex documents. They performed comparably to human analysts but with significantly higher efficiency. However, achieving reproducibility remains a challenge, necessitating further research and development.

Carlos Rojas-Guzman, Mark A. Kramer

Bayesian belief networks can be used to represent and to reason about complex systems with uncertain, incomplete and conflicting information. Belief networks are graphs encoding and quantifying probabilistic dependence and conditional independence among variables. One type of reasoning of interest in diagnosis is called abductive inference (determination of the global most probable system description given the values of any partial subset of variables). In some cases, abductive inference can be performed with exact algorithms using distributed network computations but it is an NP-hard problem and complexity increases drastically with the presence of undirected cycles, number of discrete states per variable, and number of variables in the network. This paper describes an approximate method based on genetic algorithms to perform abductive inference in large, multiply connected networks for which complexity is a concern when using most exact methods and for which systematic search methods are not feasible. The theoretical adequacy of the method is discussed and preliminary experimental results are presented.