Xubo Yue

Xubo Yue, Raed Al Kontar, Ana María Estrada Gómez

As edge devices become increasingly powerful, data analytics are gradually moving from a centralized to a decentralized regime where edge compute resources are exploited to process more of the data locally. This regime of analytics is coined as federated data analytics (FDA). In spite of the recent success stories of FDA, most literature focuses exclusively on deep neural networks. In this work, we take a step back to develop an FDA treatment for one of the most fundamental statistical models: linear regression. Our treatment is built upon hierarchical modeling that allows borrowing strength across multiple groups. To this end, we propose two federated hierarchical model structures that provide a shared representation across devices to facilitate information sharing. Notably, our proposed frameworks are capable of providing uncertainty quantification, variable selection, hypothesis testing and fast adaptation to new unseen data. We validate our methods on a range of real-life applications including condition monitoring for aircraft engines. The results show that our FDA treatment for linear models can serve as a competing benchmark model for future development of federated algorithms.

Xubo Yue, Raed Al Kontar, Albert S. Berahas et al.

Optimal design is a critical yet challenging task within many applications. This challenge arises from the need for extensive trial and error, often done through simulations or running field experiments. Fortunately, sequential optimal design, also referred to as Bayesian optimization when using surrogates with a Bayesian flavor, has played a key role in accelerating the design process through efficient sequential sampling strategies. However, a key opportunity exists nowadays. The increased connectivity of edge devices sets forth a new collaborative paradigm for Bayesian optimization. A paradigm whereby different clients collaboratively borrow strength from each other by effectively distributing their experimentation efforts to improve and fast-track their optimal design process. To this end, we bring the notion of consensus to Bayesian optimization, where clients agree (i.e., reach a consensus) on their next-to-sample designs. Our approach provides a generic and flexible framework that can incorporate different collaboration mechanisms. In lieu of this, we propose transitional collaborative mechanisms where clients initially rely more on each other to maneuver through the early stages with scant data, then, at the late stages, focus on their own objectives to get client-specific solutions. Theoretically, we show the sub-linear growth in regret for our proposed framework. Empirically, through simulated datasets and a real-world collaborative sensor design experiment, we show that our framework can effectively accelerate and improve the optimal design process and benefit all participants.

Jianhong Chen, Naichen Shi, Xubo Yue

Causal discovery is a data-driven paradigm for analyzing complex systems, while physics-based models, such as ordinary differential equations (ODEs), provide mechanistic structure for real-world dynamical processes. Integrating these paradigms can improve identifiability, stability, and robustness. However, real dynamical systems often exhibit cyclic interactions and nonstationarity, whereas many causal discovery methods rely on acyclicity, stationarity, or equilibrium assumptions. We propose an integrative causal discovery framework for dynamical systems that leverages partial physical knowledge through stochastic differential equations (SDEs). The drift term encodes known ODE dynamics, while the diffusion term captures unknown causal couplings beyond the prescribed physics. We develop a scalable sparsity-inducing maximum quasi-likelihood estimator with a theoretically justified stabilization technique to improve the optimization landscape. Under mild conditions, we establish causal graph recovery guarantees for both stable and unstable SDEs. We also analyze robustness of our causal graph estimate to ODE misspecification and clarify how the introduced stabilization technique balances numerical stability and statistical recoverability. Experiments on linear SDEs and nonlinear benchmarks, including Lotka-Volterra and Lorenz dynamics with acyclic and cyclic structures, show improved graph recovery and robustness over data-driven baselines. We also demonstrate practical utility on real-world epidemic data by reconstructing stochastic SIR dynamics within our causal discovery framework.

Raghav Gnanasambandam, Bo Shen, Jihoon Chung et al.

Physics-informed Neural Networks (PINNs) are gaining attention in the engineering and scientific literature for solving a range of differential equations with applications in weather modeling, healthcare, manufacturing, etc. Poor scalability is one of the barriers to utilizing PINNs for many real-world problems. To address this, a Self-scalable tanh (Stan) activation function is proposed for the PINNs. The proposed Stan function is smooth, non-saturating, and has a trainable parameter. During training, it can allow easy flow of gradients to compute the required derivatives and also enable systematic scaling of the input-output mapping. It is shown theoretically that the PINNs with the proposed Stan function have no spurious stationary points when using gradient descent algorithms. The proposed Stan is tested on a number of numerical studies involving general regression problems. It is subsequently used for solving multiple forward problems, which involve second-order derivatives and multiple dimensions, and an inverse problem where the thermal diffusivity of a rod is predicted with heat conduction data. These case studies establish empirically that the Stan activation function can achieve better training and more accurate predictions than the existing activation functions in the literature.

Xiaofeng Xiao, Khawlah Alharbi, Pengyu Zhang et al.

Causal inference has recently gained notable attention across various fields like biology, healthcare, and environmental science, especially within explainable artificial intelligence (xAI) systems, for uncovering the causal relationships among multiple variables and outcomes. Yet, it has not been fully recognized and deployed in the manufacturing systems. In this paper, we introduce an explainable, scalable, and flexible federated Bayesian learning framework, \texttt{xFBCI}, designed to explore causality through treatment effect estimation in distributed manufacturing systems. By leveraging federated Bayesian learning, we efficiently estimate posterior of local parameters to derive the propensity score for each client without accessing local private data. These scores are then used to estimate the treatment effect using propensity score matching (PSM). Through simulations on various datasets and a real-world Electrohydrodynamic (EHD) printing data, we demonstrate that our approach outperforms standard Bayesian causal inference methods and several state-of-the-art federated learning benchmarks.

Jianhong Chen, Ying Ma, Xubo Yue

Traditionally, learning the structure of a Dynamic Bayesian Network has been centralized, requiring all data to be pooled in one location. However, in real-world scenarios, data are often distributed across multiple entities (e.g., companies, devices) that seek to collaboratively learn a Dynamic Bayesian Network while preserving data privacy and security. More importantly, due to the presence of diverse clients, the data may follow different distributions, resulting in data heterogeneity. This heterogeneity poses additional challenges for centralized approaches. In this study, we first introduce a federated learning approach for estimating the structure of a Dynamic Bayesian Network from homogeneous time series data that are horizontally distributed across different parties. We then extend this approach to heterogeneous time series data by incorporating a proximal operator as a regularization term in a personalized federated learning framework. To this end, we propose \texttt{FDBNL} and \texttt{PFDBNL}, which leverage continuous optimization, ensuring that only model parameters are exchanged during the optimization process. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art techniques, particularly in scenarios with many clients and limited individual sample sizes.

Xiaofeng Xiao, Xiao Hu, Yang Ye et al.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has achieved remarkable success in a wide range of sequential decision-making problems. Recent diffusion-based policies further improve RL by modeling complex, high-dimensional action distributions. However, existing diffusion policies primarily rely on statistical associations and fail to explicitly account for causal relationships among states, actions, and rewards, limiting their ability to identify which action components truly cause high returns. In this paper, we propose Causality-guided Diffusion Policy (CausalGDP), a unified framework that integrates causal reasoning into diffusion-based RL. CausalGDP first learns a base diffusion policy and an initial causal dynamical model from offline data, capturing causal dependencies among states, actions, and rewards. During real-time interaction, the causal information is continuously updated and incorporated as a guidance signal to steer the diffusion process toward actions that causally influence future states and rewards. By explicitly considering causality beyond association, CausalGDP focuses policy optimization on action components that genuinely drive performance improvements. Experimental results demonstrate that CausalGDP consistently achieves competitive or superior performance over state-of-the-art diffusion-based and offline RL methods, especially in complex, high-dimensional control tasks.

Jianhong Chen, Meng Zhao, Mostafa Reisi Gahrooei et al.

Temporal causal representation learning is a powerful tool for uncovering complex patterns in observational studies, which are often represented as low-dimensional time series. However, in many real-world applications, data are high-dimensional with varying input lengths and naturally take the form of irregular tensors. To analyze such data, irregular tensor decomposition is critical for extracting meaningful clusters that capture essential information. In this paper, we focus on modeling causal representation learning based on the transformed information. First, we present a novel causal formulation for a set of latent clusters. We then propose CaRTeD, a joint learning framework that integrates temporal causal representation learning with irregular tensor decomposition. Notably, our framework provides a blueprint for downstream tasks using the learned tensor factors, such as modeling latent structures and extracting causal information, and offers a more flexible regularization design to enhance tensor decomposition. Theoretically, we show that our algorithm converges to a stationary point. More importantly, our results fill the gap in theoretical guarantees for the convergence of state-of-the-art irregular tensor decomposition. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world electronic health record (EHR) datasets (MIMIC-III), with extensive benchmarks from both phenotyping and network recovery perspectives, demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art techniques and enhances the explainability of causal representations.

Xiaofeng Xiao, Bo Shen, Xubo Yue

Nowadays, as AI-driven manufacturing becomes increasingly popular, the volume of data streams requiring real-time monitoring continues to grow. However, due to limited resources, it is impractical to place sensors at every location to detect unexpected shifts. Therefore, it is necessary to develop an optimal sensor placement strategy that enables partial observability of the system while detecting anomalies as quickly as possible. Numerous approaches have been proposed to address this challenge; however, most existing methods consider only variable correlations and neglect a crucial factor: Causality. Moreover, although a few techniques incorporate causal analysis, they rely on interventions-artificially creating anomalies-to identify causal effects, which is impractical and might lead to catastrophic losses. In this paper, we introduce a causality-informed deep Q-network (Causal DQ) approach for partially observable sensor placement in anomaly detection. By integrating causal information at each stage of Q-network training, our method achieves faster convergence and tighter theoretical error bounds. Furthermore, the trained causal-informed Q-network significantly reduces the detection time for anomalies under various settings, demonstrating its effectiveness for sensor placement in large-scale, real-world data streams. Beyond the current implementation, our technique's fundamental insights can be applied to various reinforcement learning problems, opening up new possibilities for real-world causality-informed machine learning methods in engineering applications.

Cheoljoon Jeong, Xubo Yue, Seokhyun Chung

Many failure mechanisms of machinery are closely related to the behavior of condition monitoring (CM) signals. To achieve a cost-effective preventive maintenance strategy, accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction based on the signals is of paramount importance. However, the CM signals are often recorded at different factories and production lines, with limited amounts of data. Unfortunately, these datasets have rarely been shared between the sites due to data confidentiality and ownership issues, a lack of computing and storage power, and high communication costs associated with data transfer between sites and a data center. Another challenge in real applications is that the CM signals are often not explicitly specified \textit{a priori}, meaning that existing methods, which often usually a parametric form, may not be applicable. To address these challenges, we propose a new prognostic framework for RUL prediction using the joint modeling of nonlinear degradation signals and time-to-failure data within a federated learning scheme. The proposed method constructs a nonparametric degradation model using a federated multi-output Gaussian process and then employs a federated survival model to predict failure times and probabilities for in-service machinery. The superiority of the proposed method over other alternatives is demonstrated through comprehensive simulation studies and a case study using turbofan engine degradation signal data that include run-to-failure events.

Xubo Yue, Raed Al Kontar

In this paper, we propose \texttt{FGPR}: a Federated Gaussian process ($\mathcal{GP}$) regression framework that uses an averaging strategy for model aggregation and stochastic gradient descent for local client computations. Notably, the resulting global model excels in personalization as \texttt{FGPR} jointly learns a global $\mathcal{GP}$ prior across all clients. The predictive posterior then is obtained by exploiting this prior and conditioning on local data which encodes personalized features from a specific client. Theoretically, we show that \texttt{FGPR} converges to a critical point of the full log-likelihood function, subject to statistical error. Through extensive case studies we show that \texttt{FGPR} excels in a wide range of applications and is a promising approach for privacy-preserving multi-fidelity data modeling.

Raed Kontar, Naichen Shi, Xubo Yue et al.

The Internet of Things (IoT) is on the verge of a major paradigm shift. In the IoT system of the future, IoFT, the cloud will be substituted by the crowd where model training is brought to the edge, allowing IoT devices to collaboratively extract knowledge and build smart analytics/models while keeping their personal data stored locally. This paradigm shift was set into motion by the tremendous increase in computational power on IoT devices and the recent advances in decentralized and privacy-preserving model training, coined as federated learning (FL). This article provides a vision for IoFT and a systematic overview of current efforts towards realizing this vision. Specifically, we first introduce the defining characteristics of IoFT and discuss FL data-driven approaches, opportunities, and challenges that allow decentralized inference within three dimensions: (i) a global model that maximizes utility across all IoT devices, (ii) a personalized model that borrows strengths across all devices yet retains its own model, (iii) a meta-learning model that quickly adapts to new devices or learning tasks. We end by describing the vision and challenges of IoFT in reshaping different industries through the lens of domain experts. Those industries include manufacturing, transportation, energy, healthcare, quality & reliability, business, and computing.

Xubo Yue, Maher Nouiehed, Raed Al Kontar

In this paper we propose \texttt{GIFAIR-FL}: a framework that imposes \textbf{G}roup and \textbf{I}ndividual \textbf{FAIR}ness to \textbf{F}ederated \textbf{L}earning settings. By adding a regularization term, our algorithm penalizes the spread in the loss of client groups to drive the optimizer to fair solutions. Our framework \texttt{GIFAIR-FL} can accommodate both global and personalized settings. Theoretically, we show convergence in non-convex and strongly convex settings. Our convergence guarantees hold for both $i.i.d.$ and non-$i.i.d.$ data. To demonstrate the empirical performance of our algorithm, we apply our method to image classification and text prediction tasks. Compared to existing algorithms, our method shows improved fairness results while retaining superior or similar prediction accuracy.

Xubo Yue, Maher Nouiehed, Raed Al Kontar

In an effort to improve generalization in deep learning and automate the process of learning rate scheduling, we propose SALR: a sharpness-aware learning rate update technique designed to recover flat minimizers. Our method dynamically updates the learning rate of gradient-based optimizers based on the local sharpness of the loss function. This allows optimizers to automatically increase learning rates at sharp valleys to increase the chance of escaping them. We demonstrate the effectiveness of SALR when adopted by various algorithms over a broad range of networks. Our experiments indicate that SALR improves generalization, converges faster, and drives solutions to significantly flatter regions.

Xubo Yue, Raed Al Kontar

Lookahead, also known as non-myopic, Bayesian optimization (BO) aims to find optimal sampling policies through solving a dynamic program (DP) that maximizes a long-term reward over a rolling horizon. Though promising, lookahead BO faces the risk of error propagation through its increased dependence on a possibly mis-specified model. In this work we focus on the rollout approximation for solving the intractable DP. We first prove the improving nature of rollout in tackling lookahead BO and provide a sufficient condition for the used heuristic to be rollout improving. We then provide both a theoretical and practical guideline to decide on the rolling horizon stagewise. This guideline is built on quantifying the negative effect of a mis-specified model. To illustrate our idea, we provide case studies on both single and multi-information source BO. Empirical results show the advantageous properties of our method over several myopic and non-myopic BO algorithms.

Xubo Yue, Raed Kontar

We introduce an alternative closed form lower bound on the Gaussian process ($\mathcal{GP}$) likelihood based on the Rényi $α$-divergence. This new lower bound can be viewed as a convex combination of the Nyström approximation and the exact $\mathcal{GP}$. The key advantage of this bound, is its capability to control and tune the enforced regularization on the model and thus is a generalization of the traditional variational $\mathcal{GP}$ regression. From a theoretical perspective, we provide the convergence rate and risk bound for inference using our proposed approach. Experiments on real data show that the proposed algorithm may be able to deliver improvement over several $\mathcal{GP}$ inference methods.

Xubo Yue, Raed Kontar

We present a non-parametric prognostic framework for individualized event prediction based on joint modeling of both longitudinal and time-to-event data. Our approach exploits a multivariate Gaussian convolution process (MGCP) to model the evolution of longitudinal signals and a Cox model to map time-to-event data with longitudinal data modeled through the MGCP. Taking advantage of the unique structure imposed by convolved processes, we provide a variational inference framework to simultaneously estimate parameters in the joint MGCP-Cox model. This significantly reduces computational complexity and safeguards against model overfitting. Experiments on synthetic and real world data show that the proposed framework outperforms state-of-the art approaches built on two-stage inference and strong parametric assumptions.