Sotaro Ishii

Sotaro Ishii, Tetsuro Tanaka

To investigate the feasibility of strongly solving Minishogi (Gogo Shogi), it is necessary to know the number of its reachable positions from the initial position. However, there currently remains a significant gap between the lower and upper bounds of the value, since checking the legality of a Minishogi position is difficult. In this paper, the authors estimate the number of reachable positions by generating candidate positions using uniform random sampling and measuring the proportion of those reachable by a series of legal moves from the initial position. The experimental results reveal that the number of reachable Minishogi positions is approximately $2.38\times 10^{18}$.

Sotaro Ishii, Tetsuro Tanaka

Determining the state-space complexity of the game of Shogi (Japanese Chess) has been a challenging problem, with previous combinatorial estimates leaving a gap of five orders of magnitude ($10^{64}$ to $10^{69}$). This large gap arises from the difficulty of distinguishing Shogi positions legally reachable from the initial position among the vast number of valid board configurations. In this paper, we present a high-precision statistical estimation of the number of reachable positions in Shogi. Our method combines Monte Carlo sampling with a novel reachability test that utilizes a reverse search toward a set of "King-King only" (KK) positions, rather than a single-target backward search to the single initial position. This approach significantly reduces the search effort for determining unreachability. Based on a sample of 5 billion positions, we estimated the number of legal positions in Shogi to be $6.55 \times 10^{68}$ (to three significant digits) with a $3σ$ confidence level, substantially improving upon previously known bounds. We also applied this method to Mini Shogi, determining its complexity to be approximately $2.38 \times 10^{18}$.