Daniele Apiletti

Daniele Rege Cambrin, Gabriele Scaffidi Militone, Luca Colomba et al.

Designing effective game tutorials is crucial for a smooth learning curve for new players, especially in games with many rules and complex core mechanics. Evaluating the effectiveness of these tutorials usually requires multiple iterations with testers who have no prior knowledge of the game. Recent Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have demonstrated significant capabilities in understanding and interpreting visual content. VLMs can analyze images, provide detailed insights, and answer questions about their content. They can recognize objects, actions, and contexts in visual data, making them valuable tools for various applications, including automated game testing. In this work, we propose an automated game-testing solution to evaluate the quality of game tutorials. Our approach leverages VLMs to analyze frames from video game tutorials, answer relevant questions to simulate human perception, and provide feedback. This feedback is compared with expected results to identify confusing or problematic scenes and highlight potential errors for developers. In addition, we publish complete tutorial videos and annotated frames from different game versions used in our tests. This solution reduces the need for extensive manual testing, especially by speeding up and simplifying the initial development stages of the tutorial to improve the final game experience.

Simone Fassio, Simone Monaco, Daniele Apiletti

Deep learning has revolutionized various fields by enabling highly accurate predictions and estimates. One important application is probabilistic prediction, where models estimate the probability of events rather than deterministic outcomes. This approach is particularly relevant and, therefore, still unexplored for segmentation tasks where each pixel in an image needs to be classified. Conventional models often overlook the probabilistic nature of labels, but accurate uncertainty estimation is crucial for improving the reliability and applicability of models. In this study, we applied Calibrated Probability Estimation (CaPE) to segmentation tasks to evaluate its impact on model calibration. Our results indicate that while CaPE improves calibration, its effect is less pronounced compared to classification tasks, suggesting that segmentation models can inherently provide better probability estimates. We also investigated the influence of dataset size and bin optimization on the effectiveness of calibration. Our results emphasize the expressive power of segmentation models as probability estimators and incorporate probabilistic reasoning, which is crucial for applications requiring precise uncertainty quantification.

Simone Monaco, Luca Monaco, Daniele Apiletti

Accurate precipitation forecasts are crucial for applications such as flood management, agricultural planning, water resource allocation, and weather warnings. Despite advances in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, they still exhibit significant biases and uncertainties, especially at high spatial and temporal resolutions. To address these limitations, we explore uncertainty-aware deep learning models for post-processing daily cumulative quantitative precipitation forecasts to obtain forecast uncertainties that lead to a better trade-off between accuracy and reliability. Our study compares different state-of-the-art models, and we propose a variant of the well-known SDE-Net, called SDE U-Net, tailored to segmentation problems like ours. We evaluate its performance for both typical and intense precipitation events. Our results show that all deep learning models significantly outperform the average baseline NWP solution, with our implementation of the SDE U-Net showing the best trade-off between accuracy and reliability. Integrating these models, which account for uncertainty, into operational forecasting systems can improve decision-making and preparedness for weather-related events.

Fotios Petropoulos, Daniele Apiletti, Vassilios Assimakopoulos et al.

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.

Salvatore Greco, Bartolomeo Vacchetti, Daniele Apiletti et al.

Concept drift is the phenomenon in which the underlying data distributions and statistical properties of a target domain change over time, leading to a degradation in model performance. Consequently, production models require continuous drift detection monitoring. Most drift detection methods to date are supervised, relying on ground-truth labels. However, they are inapplicable in many real-world scenarios, as true labels are often unavailable. Although recent efforts have proposed unsupervised drift detectors, many lack the accuracy required for reliable detection or are too computationally intensive for real-time use in high-dimensional, large-scale production environments. Moreover, they often fail to characterize or explain drift effectively. To address these limitations, we propose \textsc{DriftLens}, an unsupervised framework for real-time concept drift detection and characterization. Designed for deep learning classifiers handling unstructured data, \textsc{DriftLens} leverages distribution distances in deep learning representations to enable efficient and accurate detection. Additionally, it characterizes drift by analyzing and explaining its impact on each label. Our evaluation across classifiers and data-types demonstrates that \textsc{DriftLens} (i) outperforms previous methods in detecting drift in 15/17 use cases; (ii) runs at least 5 times faster; (iii) produces drift curves that align closely with actual drift (correlation $\geq\!0.85$); (iv) effectively identifies representative drift samples as explanations.

Francesco Ventura, Salvatore Greco, Daniele Apiletti et al.

Despite the high accuracy offered by state-of-the-art deep natural-language models (e.g. LSTM, BERT), their application in real-life settings is still widely limited, as they behave like a black-box to the end-user. Hence, explainability is rapidly becoming a fundamental requirement of future-generation data-driven systems based on deep-learning approaches. Several attempts to fulfill the existing gap between accuracy and interpretability have been done. However, robust and specialized xAI (Explainable Artificial Intelligence) solutions tailored to deep natural-language models are still missing. We propose a new framework, named T-EBAnO, which provides innovative prediction-local and class-based model-global explanation strategies tailored to black-box deep natural-language models. Given a deep NLP model and the textual input data, T-EBAnO provides an objective, human-readable, domain-specific assessment of the reasons behind the automatic decision-making process. Specifically, the framework extracts sets of interpretable features mining the inner knowledge of the model. Then, it quantifies the influence of each feature during the prediction process by exploiting the novel normalized Perturbation Influence Relation index at the local level and the novel Global Absolute Influence and Global Relative Influence indexes at the global level. The effectiveness and the quality of the local and global explanations obtained with T-EBAnO are proved on (i) a sentiment analysis task performed by a fine-tuned BERT model, and (ii) a toxic comment classification task performed by an LSTM model.

Tania Cerquitelli, Stefano Proto, Francesco Ventura et al.

A key aspect of automating predictive machine learning entails the capability of properly triggering the update of the trained model. To this aim, suitable automatic solutions to self-assess the prediction quality and the data distribution drift between the original training set and the new data have to be devised. In this paper, we propose a novel methodology to automatically detect prediction-quality degradation of machine learning models due to class-based concept drift, i.e., when new data contains samples that do not fit the set of class labels known by the currently-trained predictive model. Experiments on synthetic and real-world public datasets show the effectiveness of the proposed methodology in automatically detecting and describing concept drift caused by changes in the class-label data distributions.