Hugol Larochelle

Fengyuan Liu, Jay Gala, Nilaksh et al. · mila

Evaluating the real-world capabilities of AI systems requires grounding benchmark performance in human-interpretable measures of task difficulty. Existing approaches that rely on direct human task completion time annotations are costly, noisy, and difficult to scale across benchmarks. In this work, we propose BRIDGE, a unified psychometric framework that learns the latent difficulty scale from model responses and anchors it to human task completion time. Using a two-parameter logistic Item Response Theory model, we jointly estimate latent task difficulty and model capability from model performance data across multiple benchmarks. We demonstrate that latent task difficulty varies linearly with the logarithm of human completion time, allowing human task completion time to be inferred for new benchmarks from model performance alone. Leveraging this alignment, we forecast frontier model capabilities in terms of human task length and independently reproduce METR's exponential scaling results, with the 50% solvable task horizon doubling approximately every 6 months.

Juan Agustin Duque, Razvan Ciuca, Ayoub Echchahed et al.

Addressing climate change requires global coordination, yet rational economic actors often prioritize immediate gains over collective welfare, resulting in social dilemmas. InvestESG is a recently proposed multi-agent simulation that captures the dynamic interplay between investors and companies under climate risk. We provide a formal characterization of the conditions under which InvestESG exhibits an intertemporal social dilemma, deriving theoretical thresholds at which individual incentives diverge from collective welfare. Building on this, we apply Advantage Alignment, a scalable opponent shaping algorithm shown to be effective in general-sum games, to influence agent learning in InvestESG. We offer theoretical insights into why Advantage Alignment systematically favors socially beneficial equilibria by biasing learning dynamics toward cooperative outcomes. Our results demonstrate that strategically shaping the learning processes of economic agents can result in better outcomes that could inform policy mechanisms to better align market incentives with long-term sustainability goals.

Nan Rosemary Ke, Olexa Bilaniuk, Anirudh Goyal et al.

Promising results have driven a recent surge of interest in continuous optimization methods for Bayesian network structure learning from observational data. However, there are theoretical limitations on the identifiability of underlying structures obtained from observational data alone. Interventional data provides much richer information about the underlying data-generating process. However, the extension and application of methods designed for observational data to include interventions is not straightforward and remains an open problem. In this paper we provide a general framework based on continuous optimization and neural networks to create models for the combination of observational and interventional data. The proposed method is even applicable in the challenging and realistic case that the identity of the intervened upon variable is unknown. We examine the proposed method in the setting of graph recovery both de novo and from a partially-known edge set. We establish strong benchmark results on several structure learning tasks, including structure recovery of both synthetic graphs as well as standard graphs from the Bayesian Network Repository.