LGApr 8, 2023Code
Deep Anti-Regularized Ensembles provide reliable out-of-distribution uncertainty quantificationAntoine de Mathelin, Francois Deheeger, Mathilde Mougeot et al.
We consider the problem of uncertainty quantification in high dimensional regression and classification for which deep ensemble have proven to be promising methods. Recent observations have shown that deep ensemble often return overconfident estimates outside the training domain, which is a major limitation because shifted distributions are often encountered in real-life scenarios. The principal challenge for this problem is to solve the trade-off between increasing the diversity of the ensemble outputs and making accurate in-distribution predictions. In this work, we show that an ensemble of networks with large weights fitting the training data are likely to meet these two objectives. We derive a simple and practical approach to produce such ensembles, based on an original anti-regularization term penalizing small weights and a control process of the weight increase which maintains the in-distribution loss under an acceptable threshold. The developed approach does not require any out-of-distribution training data neither any trade-off hyper-parameter calibration. We derive a theoretical framework for this approach and show that the proposed optimization can be seen as a "water-filling" problem. Several experiments in both regression and classification settings highlight that Deep Anti-Regularized Ensembles (DARE) significantly improve uncertainty quantification outside the training domain in comparison to recent deep ensembles and out-of-distribution detection methods. All the conducted experiments are reproducible and the source code is available at \url{https://github.com/antoinedemathelin/DARE}.
LGSep 9, 2022
Fast and Accurate Importance Weighting for Correcting Sample BiasAntoine de Mathelin, Francois Deheeger, Mathilde Mougeot et al.
Bias in datasets can be very detrimental for appropriate statistical estimation. In response to this problem, importance weighting methods have been developed to match any biased distribution to its corresponding target unbiased distribution. The seminal Kernel Mean Matching (KMM) method is, nowadays, still considered as state of the art in this research field. However, one of the main drawbacks of this method is the computational burden for large datasets. Building on previous works by Huang et al. (2007) and de Mathelin et al. (2021), we derive a novel importance weighting algorithm which scales to large datasets by using a neural network to predict the instance weights. We show, on multiple public datasets, under various sample biases, that our proposed approach drastically reduces the computational time on large dataset while maintaining similar sample bias correction performance compared to other importance weighting methods. The proposed approach appears to be the only one able to give relevant reweighting in a reasonable time for large dataset with up to two million data.
LGSep 27, 2023
Deep Out-of-Distribution Uncertainty Quantification via Weight Entropy MaximizationAntoine de Mathelin, François Deheeger, Mathilde Mougeot et al.
This paper deals with uncertainty quantification and out-of-distribution detection in deep learning using Bayesian and ensemble methods. It proposes a practical solution to the lack of prediction diversity observed recently for standard approaches when used out-of-distribution (Ovadia et al., 2019; Liu et al., 2021). Considering that this issue is mainly related to a lack of weight diversity, we claim that standard methods sample in "over-restricted" regions of the weight space due to the use of "over-regularization" processes, such as weight decay and zero-mean centered Gaussian priors. We propose to solve the problem by adopting the maximum entropy principle for the weight distribution, with the underlying idea to maximize the weight diversity. Under this paradigm, the epistemic uncertainty is described by the weight distribution of maximal entropy that produces neural networks "consistent" with the training observations. Considering stochastic neural networks, a practical optimization is derived to build such a distribution, defined as a trade-off between the average empirical risk and the weight distribution entropy. We develop a novel weight parameterization for the stochastic model, based on the singular value decomposition of the neural network's hidden representations, which enables a large increase of the weight entropy for a small empirical risk penalization. We provide both theoretical and numerical results to assess the efficiency of the approach. In particular, the proposed algorithm appears in the top three best methods in all configurations of an extensive out-of-distribution detection benchmark including more than thirty competitors.
LGDec 22, 2022
Fixed-budget online adaptive learning for physics-informed neural networks. Towards parameterized problem inferenceThi Nguyen Khoa Nguyen, Thibault Dairay, Raphaël Meunier et al.
Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have gained much attention in various fields of engineering thanks to their capability of incorporating physical laws into the models. PINNs integrate the physical constraints by minimizing the partial differential equations (PDEs) residuals on a set of collocation points. The distribution of these collocation points appears to have a huge impact on the performance of PINNs and the assessment of the sampling methods for these points is still an active topic. In this paper, we propose a Fixed-Budget Online Adaptive Learning (FBOAL) method, which decomposes the domain into sub-domains, for training collocation points based on local maxima and local minima of the PDEs residuals. The effectiveness of FBOAL is demonstrated for non-parameterized and parameterized problems. The comparison with other adaptive sampling methods is also illustrated. The numerical results demonstrate important gains in terms of the accuracy and computational cost of PINNs with FBOAL over the classical PINNs with non-adaptive collocation points. We also apply FBOAL in a complex industrial application involving coupling between mechanical and thermal fields. We show that FBOAL is able to identify the high-gradient locations and even give better predictions for some physical fields than the classical PINNs with collocation points sampled on a pre-adapted finite element mesh built thanks to numerical expert knowledge. From the present study, it is expected that the use of FBOAL will help to improve the conventional numerical solver in the construction of the mesh.
LGJan 29
Cascaded Transfer: Learning Many Tasks under Budget ConstraintsEloi Campagne, Yvenn Amara-Ouali, Yannig Goude et al.
Many-Task Learning refers to the setting where a large number of related tasks need to be learned, the exact relationships between tasks are not known. We introduce the Cascaded Transfer Learning, a novel many-task transfer learning paradigm where information (e.g. model parameters) cascades hierarchically through tasks that are learned by individual models of the same class, while respecting given budget constraints. The cascade is organized as a rooted tree that specifies the order in which tasks are learned and refined. We design a cascaded transfer mechanism deployed over a minimum spanning tree structure that connects the tasks according to a suitable distance measure, and allocates the available training budget along its branches. Experiments on synthetic and real many-task settings show that the resulting method enables more accurate and cost effective adaptation across large task collections compared to alternative approaches.
LGJun 8, 2023
A Meta-Generation framework for Industrial System GenerationFouad Oubari, Raphael Meunier, Rodrigue Décatoire et al.
Generative design is an increasingly important tool in the industrial world. It allows the designers and engineers to easily explore vast ranges of design options, providing a cheaper and faster alternative to the trial and failure approaches. Thanks to the flexibility they offer, Deep Generative Models are gaining popularity amongst Generative Design technologies. However, developing and evaluating these models can be challenging. The field lacks accessible benchmarks, in order to evaluate and compare objectively different Deep Generative Models architectures. Moreover, vanilla Deep Generative Models appear to be unable to accurately generate multi-components industrial systems that are controlled by latent design constraints. To address these challenges, we propose an industry-inspired use case that incorporates actual industrial system characteristics. This use case can be quickly generated and used as a benchmark. We propose a Meta-VAE capable of producing multi-component industrial systems and showcase its application on the proposed use case.
LGOct 7, 2022
To tree or not to tree? Assessing the impact of smoothing the decision boundariesAnthea Mérida, Argyris Kalogeratos, Mathilde Mougeot
When analyzing a dataset, it can be useful to assess how smooth the decision boundaries need to be for a model to better fit the data. This paper addresses this question by proposing the quantification of how much should the 'rigid' decision boundaries, produced by an algorithm that naturally finds such solutions, be relaxed to obtain a performance improvement. The approach we propose starts with the rigid decision boundaries of a seed Decision Tree (seed DT), which is used to initialize a Neural DT (NDT). The initial boundaries are challenged by relaxing them progressively through training the NDT. During this process, we measure the NDT's performance and decision agreement to its seed DT. We show how these two measures can help the user in figuring out how expressive his model should be, before exploring it further via model selection. The validity of our approach is demonstrated with experiments on simulated and benchmark datasets.
LGAug 18, 2024
A Markov Random Field Multi-Modal Variational AutoEncoderFouad Oubari, Mohamed El Baha, Raphael Meunier et al.
Recent advancements in multimodal Variational AutoEncoders (VAEs) have highlighted their potential for modeling complex data from multiple modalities. However, many existing approaches use relatively straightforward aggregating schemes that may not fully capture the complex dynamics present between different modalities. This work introduces a novel multimodal VAE that incorporates a Markov Random Field (MRF) into both the prior and posterior distributions. This integration aims to capture complex intermodal interactions more effectively. Unlike previous models, our approach is specifically designed to model and leverage the intricacies of these relationships, enabling a more faithful representation of multimodal data. Our experiments demonstrate that our model performs competitively on the standard PolyMNIST dataset and shows superior performance in managing complex intermodal dependencies in a specially designed synthetic dataset, intended to test intricate relationships.
LGJul 7, 2021Code
ADAPT : Awesome Domain Adaptation Python ToolboxAntoine de Mathelin, Mounir Atiq, Guillaume Richard et al.
In this paper, we introduce the ADAPT library, an open source Python API providing the implementation of the main transfer learning and domain adaptation methods. The library is designed with a user friendly approach to facilitate the access to domain adaptation for a wide public. ADAPT is compatible with scikit-learn and TensorFlow and a full documentation is proposed online https://adapt-python.github.io/adapt/ with a substantial gallery of examples.
MLJan 15, 2024
Conformal Approach To Gaussian Process Surrogate Evaluation With Coverage GuaranteesEdgar Jaber, Vincent Blot, Nicolas Brunel et al.
Gaussian processes (GPs) are a Bayesian machine learning approach widely used to construct surrogate models for the uncertainty quantification of computer simulation codes in industrial applications. It provides both a mean predictor and an estimate of the posterior prediction variance, the latter being used to produce Bayesian credibility intervals. Interpreting these intervals relies on the Gaussianity of the simulation model as well as the well-specification of the priors which are not always appropriate. We propose to address this issue with the help of conformal prediction. In the present work, a method for building adaptive cross-conformal prediction intervals is proposed by weighting the non-conformity score with the posterior standard deviation of the GP. The resulting conformal prediction intervals exhibit a level of adaptivity akin to Bayesian credibility sets and display a significant correlation with the surrogate model local approximation error, while being free from the underlying model assumptions and having frequentist coverage guarantees. These estimators can thus be used for evaluating the quality of a GP surrogate model and can assist a decision-maker in the choice of the best prior for the specific application of the GP. The performance of the method is illustrated through a panel of numerical examples based on various reference databases. Moreover, the potential applicability of the method is demonstrated in the context of surrogate modeling of an expensive-to-evaluate simulator of the clogging phenomenon in steam generators of nuclear reactors.
35.1LGApr 5
Correcting Source Mismatch in Flow Matching with Radial-Angular TransportFouad Oubari, Mathilde Mougeot
Flow Matching is typically built from Gaussian sources and Euclidean probability paths. For heavy-tailed or anisotropic data, however, a Gaussian source induces a structural mismatch already at the level of the radial distribution. We introduce \textit{Radial--Angular Flow Matching (RAFM)}, a framework that explicitly corrects this source mismatch within the standard simulation-free Flow Matching template. RAFM uses a source whose radial law matches that of the data and whose conditional angular distribution is uniform on the sphere, thereby removing the Gaussian radial mismatch by construction. This reduces the remaining transport problem to angular alignment, which leads naturally to conditional paths on scaled spheres defined by spherical geodesic interpolation. The resulting framework yields explicit Flow Matching targets tailored to radial--angular transport without modifying the underlying deterministic training pipeline. We establish the exact density of the matched-radial source, prove a radial--angular KL decomposition that isolates the Gaussian radial penalty, characterize the induced target vector field, and derive a stability result linking Flow Matching error to generation error. We further analyze empirical estimation of the radial law, for which Wasserstein and CDF metrics provide natural guarantees. Empirically, RAFM substantially improves over standard Gaussian Flow Matching and remains competitive with recent non-Gaussian alternatives while preserving a lightweight deterministic training procedure. Overall, RAFM provides a principled source-and-path design for Flow Matching on heavy-tailed and extreme-event data.
LGJan 28, 2025
Bridging Contrastive Learning and Domain Adaptation: Theoretical Perspective and Practical ApplicationGonzalo Iñaki Quintana, Laurence Vancamberg, Vincent Jugnon et al.
This work studies the relationship between Contrastive Learning and Domain Adaptation from a theoretical perspective. The two standard contrastive losses, NT-Xent loss (Self-supervised) and Supervised Contrastive loss, are related to the Class-wise Mean Maximum Discrepancy (CMMD), a dissimilarity measure widely used for Domain Adaptation. Our work shows that minimizing the contrastive losses decreases the CMMD and simultaneously improves class-separability, laying the theoretical groundwork for the use of Contrastive Learning in the context of Domain Adaptation. Due to the relevance of Domain Adaptation in medical imaging, we focused the experiments on mammography images. Extensive experiments on three mammography datasets - synthetic patches, clinical (real) patches, and clinical (real) images - show improved Domain Adaptation, class-separability, and classification performance, when minimizing the Supervised Contrastive loss.
LGJan 31, 2025
OneBatchPAM: A Fast and Frugal K-Medoids AlgorithmAntoine de Mathelin, Nicolas Enrique Cecchi, François Deheeger et al.
This paper proposes a novel k-medoids approximation algorithm to handle large-scale datasets with reasonable computational time and memory complexity. We develop a local-search algorithm that iteratively improves the medoid selection based on the estimation of the k-medoids objective. A single batch of size m << n provides the estimation, which reduces the required memory size and the number of pairwise dissimilarities computations to O(mn), instead of O(n^2) compared to most k-medoids baselines. We obtain theoretical results highlighting that a batch of size m = O(log(n)) is sufficient to guarantee, with strong probability, the same performance as the original local-search algorithm. Multiple experiments conducted on real datasets of various sizes and dimensions show that our algorithm provides similar performances as state-of-the-art methods such as FasterPAM and BanditPAM++ with a drastically reduced running time.
LGJul 16, 2025
Multi-Component VAE with Gaussian Markov Random FieldFouad Oubari, Mohamed El-Baha, Raphael Meunier et al.
Multi-component datasets with intricate dependencies, like industrial assemblies or multi-modal imaging, challenge current generative modeling techniques. Existing Multi-component Variational AutoEncoders typically rely on simplified aggregation strategies, neglecting critical nuances and consequently compromising structural coherence across generated components. To explicitly address this gap, we introduce the Gaussian Markov Random Field Multi-Component Variational AutoEncoder , a novel generative framework embedding Gaussian Markov Random Fields into both prior and posterior distributions. This design choice explicitly models cross-component relationships, enabling richer representation and faithful reproduction of complex interactions. Empirically, our GMRF MCVAE achieves state-of-the-art performance on a synthetic Copula dataset specifically constructed to evaluate intricate component relationships, demonstrates competitive results on the PolyMNIST benchmark, and significantly enhances structural coherence on the real-world BIKED dataset. Our results indicate that the GMRF MCVAE is especially suited for practical applications demanding robust and realistic modeling of multi-component coherence
LGJul 15, 2025
Deep Generative Methods and Tire Architecture DesignFouad Oubari, Raphael Meunier, Rodrigue Décatoire et al.
As deep generative models proliferate across the AI landscape, industrial practitioners still face critical yet unanswered questions about which deep generative models best suit complex manufacturing design tasks. This work addresses this question through a complete study of five representative models (Variational Autoencoder, Generative Adversarial Network, multimodal Variational Autoencoder, Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model, and Multinomial Diffusion Model) on industrial tire architecture generation. Our evaluation spans three key industrial scenarios: (i) unconditional generation of complete multi-component designs, (ii) component-conditioned generation (reconstructing architectures from partial observations), and (iii) dimension-constrained generation (creating designs that satisfy specific dimensional requirements). To enable discrete diffusion models to handle conditional scenarios, we introduce categorical inpainting, a mask-aware reverse diffusion process that preserves known labels without requiring additional training. Our evaluation employs geometry-aware metrics specifically calibrated for industrial requirements, quantifying spatial coherence, component interaction, structural connectivity, and perceptual fidelity. Our findings reveal that diffusion models achieve the strongest overall performance; a masking-trained VAE nonetheless outperforms the multimodal variant MMVAE\textsuperscript{+} on nearly all component-conditioned metrics, and within the diffusion family MDM leads in-distribution whereas DDPM generalises better to out-of-distribution dimensional constraints.
LGMay 6, 2024
Geometry-aware framework for deep energy method: an application to structural mechanics with hyperelastic materialsThi Nguyen Khoa Nguyen, Thibault Dairay, Raphaël Meunier et al.
Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have gained considerable interest in diverse engineering domains thanks to their capacity to integrate physical laws into deep learning models. Recently, geometry-aware PINN-based approaches that employ the strong form of underlying physical system equations have been developed with the aim of integrating geometric information into PINNs. Despite ongoing research, the assessment of PINNs in problems with various geometries remains an active area of investigation. In this work, we introduce a novel physics-informed framework named the Geometry-Aware Deep Energy Method (GADEM) for solving structural mechanics problems on different geometries. As the weak form of the physical system equation (or the energy-based approach) has demonstrated clear advantages compared to the strong form for solving solid mechanics problems, GADEM employs the weak form and aims to infer the solution on multiple shapes of geometries. Integrating a geometry-aware framework into an energy-based method results in an effective physics-informed deep learning model in terms of accuracy and computational cost. Different ways to represent the geometric information and to encode the geometric latent vectors are investigated in this work. We introduce a loss function of GADEM which is minimized based on the potential energy of all considered geometries. An adaptive learning method is also employed for the sampling of collocation points to enhance the performance of GADEM. We present some applications of GADEM to solve solid mechanics problems, including a loading simulation of a toy tire involving contact mechanics and large deformation hyperelasticity. The numerical results of this work demonstrate the remarkable capability of GADEM to infer the solution on various and new shapes of geometries using only one trained model.
LGJan 31, 2022
Physics-informed neural networks for non-Newtonian fluid thermo-mechanical problems: an application to rubber calendering processThi Nguyen Khoa Nguyen, Thibault Dairay, Raphaël Meunier et al.
Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have gained much attention in various fields of engineering thanks to their capability of incorporating physical laws into the models. However, the assessment of PINNs in industrial applications involving coupling between mechanical and thermal fields is still an active research topic. In this work, we present an application of PINNs to a non-Newtonian fluid thermo-mechanical problem which is often considered in the rubber calendering process. We demonstrate the effectiveness of PINNs when dealing with inverse and ill-posed problems, which are impractical to be solved by classical numerical discretization methods. We study the impact of the placement of the sensors and the distribution of unsupervised points on the performance of PINNs in a problem of inferring hidden physical fields from some partial data. We also investigate the capability of PINNs to identify unknown physical parameters from the measurements captured by sensors. The effect of noisy measurements is also considered throughout this work. The results of this paper demonstrate that in the problem of identification, PINNs can successfully estimate the unknown parameters using only the measurements on the sensors. In ill-posed problems where boundary conditions are not completely defined, even though the placement of the sensors and the distribution of unsupervised points have a great impact on PINNs performance, we show that the algorithm is able to infer the hidden physics from local measurements.
LGDec 17, 2021
A Binded VAE for Inorganic Material GenerationFouad Oubari, Antoine de Mathelin, Rodrigue Décatoire et al.
Designing new industrial materials with desired properties can be very expensive and time consuming. The main difficulty is to generate compounds that correspond to realistic materials. Indeed, the description of compounds as vectors of components' proportions is characterized by discrete features and a severe sparsity. Furthermore, traditional generative model validation processes as visual verification, FID and Inception scores are tailored for images and cannot then be used as such in this context. To tackle these issues, we develop an original Binded-VAE model dedicated to the generation of discrete datasets with high sparsity. We validate the model with novel metrics adapted to the problem of compounds generation. We show on a real issue of rubber compound design that the proposed approach outperforms the standard generative models which opens new perspectives for material design optimization.
LGMar 5, 2021
Discrepancy-Based Active Learning for Domain AdaptationAntoine de Mathelin, Francois Deheeger, Mathilde Mougeot et al.
The goal of the paper is to design active learning strategies which lead to domain adaptation under an assumption of Lipschitz functions. Building on previous work by Mansour et al. (2009) we adapt the concept of discrepancy distance between source and target distributions to restrict the maximization over the hypothesis class to a localized class of functions which are performing accurate labeling on the source domain. We derive generalization error bounds for such active learning strategies in terms of Rademacher average and localized discrepancy for general loss functions which satisfy a regularity condition. A practical K-medoids algorithm that can address the case of large data set is inferred from the theoretical bounds. Our numerical experiments show that the proposed algorithm is competitive against other state-of-the-art active learning techniques in the context of domain adaptation, in particular on large data sets of around one hundred thousand images.
LGJun 20, 2020
Model family selection for classification using Neural Decision TreesAnthea Mérida Montes de Oca, Argyris Kalogeratos, Mathilde Mougeot
Model selection consists in comparing several candidate models according to a metric to be optimized. The process often involves a grid search, or such, and cross-validation, which can be time consuming, as well as not providing much information about the dataset itself. In this paper we propose a method to reduce the scope of exploration needed for the task. The idea is to quantify how much it would be necessary to depart from trained instances of a given family, reference models (RMs) carrying `rigid' decision boundaries (e.g. decision trees), so as to obtain an equivalent or better model. In our approach, this is realized by progressively relaxing the decision boundaries of the initial decision trees (the RMs) as long as this is beneficial in terms of performance measured on an analyzed dataset. More specifically, this relaxation is performed by making use of a neural decision tree, which is a neural network built from DTs. The final model produced by our method carries non-linear decision boundaries. Measuring the performance of the final model, and its agreement to its seeding RM can help the user to figure out on which family of models he should focus on.
LGJun 15, 2020
Adversarial Weighting for Domain Adaptation in RegressionAntoine de Mathelin, Guillaume Richard, Francois Deheeger et al.
We present a novel instance-based approach to handle regression tasks in the context of supervised domain adaptation under an assumption of covariate shift. The approach developed in this paper is based on the assumption that the task on the target domain can be efficiently learned by adequately reweighting the source instances during training phase. We introduce a novel formulation of the optimization objective for domain adaptation which relies on a discrepancy distance characterizing the difference between domains according to a specific task and a class of hypotheses. To solve this problem, we develop an adversarial network algorithm which learns both the source weighting scheme and the task in one feed-forward gradient descent. We provide numerical evidence of the relevance of the method on public data sets for regression domain adaptation through reproducible experiments.
APSep 20, 2019
A clusterwise supervised learning procedure based on aggregation of distancesAurélie Fisher, Mathilde Mougeot, Sothea Has
Nowadays, many machine learning procedures are available on the shelve and may be used easily to calibrate predictive models on supervised data. However, when the input data consists of more than one unknown cluster, and when different underlying predictive models exist, fitting a model is a more challenging task. We propose, in this paper, a procedure in three steps to automatically solve this problem. The KFC procedure aggregates different models adaptively on data. The first step of the procedure aims at catching the clustering structure of the input data, which may be characterized by several statistical distributions. It provides several partitions, given the assumptions on the distributions. For each partition, the second step fits a specific predictive model based on the data in each cluster. The overall model is computed by a consensual aggregation of the models corresponding to the different partitions. A comparison of the performances on different simulated and real data assesses the excellent performance of our method in a large variety of prediction problems.
MLMar 8, 2018
Aggregation using input-output trade-offAurélie Fischer, Mathilde Mougeot
In this paper, we introduce a new learning strategy based on a seminal idea of Mojirsheibani (1999, 2000, 2002a, 2002b), who proposed a smart method for combining several classifiers, relying on a consensus notion. In many aggregation methods, the prediction for a new observation x is computed by building a linear or convex combination over a collection of basic estimators r1(x),. .. , rm(x) previously calibrated using a training data set. Mojirsheibani proposes to compute the prediction associated to a new observation by combining selected outputs of the training examples. The output of a training example is selected if some kind of consensus is observed: the predictions computed for the training example with the different machines have to be "similar" to the prediction for the new observation. This approach has been recently extended to the context of regression in Biau et al. (2016). In the original scheme, the agreement condition is actually required to hold for all individual estimators, which appears inadequate if there is one bad initial estimator. In practice, a few disagreements are allowed ; for establishing the theoretical results, the proportion of estimators satisfying the condition is required to tend to 1. In this paper, we propose an alternative procedure, mixing the previous consensus ideas on the predictions with the Euclidean distance computed between entries. This may be seen as an alternative approach allowing to reduce the effect of a possibly bad estimator in the initial list, using a constraint on the inputs. We prove the consistency of our strategy in classification and in regression. We also provide some numerical experiments on simulated and real data to illustrate the benefits of this new aggregation method. On the whole, our practical study shows that our method may perform much better than the original combination technique, and, in particular, exhibit far less variance. We also show on simulated examples that this procedure mixing inputs and outputs is still robust to high dimensional inputs.
APOct 4, 2016
Statistical learning for wind power : a modeling and stability study towards forecastingAurélie Fischer, Lucie Montuelle, Mathilde Mougeot et al.
We focus on wind power modeling using machine learning techniques. We show on real data provided by the wind energy company Ma{ï}a Eolis, that parametric models, even following closely the physical equation relating wind production to wind speed are outperformed by intelligent learning algorithms. In particular, the CART-Bagging algorithm gives very stable and promising results. Besides, as a step towards forecast, we quantify the impact of using deteriorated wind measures on the performances. We show also on this application that the default methodology to select a subset of predictors provided in the standard random forest package can be refined, especially when there exists among the predictors one variable which has a major impact.