Zachary James

Zachary James, Joseph Guinness, Arthur DeGaetano

Convective available potential energy (CAPE) is an important variable for forecasting severe weather and understanding deep convection and precipitation. The latest versions of the Global Forecast System (GFS) and related Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) have exhibited a bias towards underestimating CAPE values during the summertime. We train an artificial intelligence (AI) diffusion model to improve the skill and uncertainty quantification of afternoon 6-hour lead time ensemble forecasts over the United States. Our model takes a GFS CAPE forecast as input and outputs an ensemble that significantly outperforms both GFS and GEFS 6-hour forecasts on root mean square error, continuous ranked probability score, and Brier score. We propose a two-stage training pipeline to leverage both a larger historical GFS forecast dataset and a smaller historical GEFS dataset, despite the two using initialization and parameterization schemes that vary over time. We also show that classifier-free guidance can be used to control the skill and spread of the forecasts. We then demonstrate the versatility of our framework by adding aerosol optical depths (AODs) of black carbon, organic carbon, dust, sea salt, and sulfates as additional input features. Aerosols can invigorate or suppress convection depending on atmospheric conditions. Our AI models effectively incorporate aerosols to produce improved CAPE forecasts. We interpret the model components by using permutation feature importance to rank the influence of the different AODs and find that black carbon, organic carbon, and sulfate aerosols have a greater impact on the model's CAPE predictions than sea salt and dust aerosols.

Zachary James, Joseph Guinness

Gaussian Processes have become an indispensable part of the spatial statistician's toolbox but are unsuitable for analyzing large dataset because of the significant time and memory needed to fit the associated model exactly. Vecchia Approximation is widely used to reduce the computational complexity and can be calculated with embarrassingly parallel algorithms. While multi-core software has been developed for Vecchia Approximation, such as the GpGp R package, software designed to run on graphics processing units (GPU) is lacking, despite the tremendous success GPUs have had in statistics and machine learning. We compare three different ways to implement Vecchia Approximation on a GPU: two of which are similar to methods used for other Gaussian Process approximations and one that is new. The impact of memory type on performance is investigated and the final method is optimized accordingly. We show that our new method outperforms the other two and then present it in the GpGpU R package. We compare GpGpU to existing multi-core and GPU-accelerated software by fitting Gaussian Process models on various datasets, including a large spatial-temporal dataset of $n>10^6$ points collected from an earth-observing satellite. Our results show that GpGpU achieves faster runtimes and better predictive accuracy.

Zachary James, Joseph Guinness

Gaussian processes have become a popular tool for nonparametric regression because of their flexibility and uncertainty quantification. However, they often use stationary kernels, which limit the expressiveness of the model and may be unsuitable for many datasets. We propose a framework that uses nonstationary kernels whose parameters vary across the feature space, modeling these parameters as the output of a neural network that takes the features as input. The neural network and Gaussian process are trained jointly using the chain rule to calculate derivatives. Our method clearly describes the behavior of the nonstationary parameters and is compatible with approximation methods for scaling to large datasets. It is flexible and easily adapts to different nonstationary kernels without needing to redesign the optimization procedure. Our methods are implemented with the GPyTorch library and can be readily modified. We test a nonstationary variance and noise variant of our method on several machine learning datasets and find that it achieves better accuracy and log-score than both a stationary model and a hierarchical model approximated with variational inference. Similar results are observed for a model with only nonstationary variance. We also demonstrate our approach's ability to recover the nonstationary parameters of a spatial dataset.

Gyaneshwar Agrahari, Kiran Bist, Monika Pandey et al.

Accurate prediction of anthropometric body composition variables, such as Appendicular Lean Mass (ALM), Body Fat Percentage (BFP), and Bone Mineral Density (BMD), is essential for early diagnosis of several chronic diseases. Currently, researchers rely on Dual-Energy X-ray Absorptiometry (DXA) scans to measure these metrics; however, DXA scans are costly and time-consuming. This work proposes an alternative to DXA scans by applying statistical and machine learning models on biomarkers (height, volume, left calf circumference, etc) obtained from 3D optical images. The dataset consists of 847 patients and was sourced from Pennington Biomedical Research Center. Extracting patients' data in healthcare faces many technical challenges and legal restrictions. However, most supervised machine learning algorithms are inherently data-intensive, requiring a large amount of training data. To overcome these limitations, we implemented a semi-supervised model, the $p$-Laplacian regression model. This paper is the first to demonstrate the application of a $p$-Laplacian model for regression. Our $p$-Laplacian model yielded errors of $\sim13\%$ for ALM, $\sim10\%$ for BMD, and $\sim20\%$ for BFP when the training data accounted for 10 percent of all data. Among the supervised algorithms we implemented, Support Vector Regression (SVR) performed the best for ALM and BMD, yielding errors of $\sim 8\%$ for both, while Least Squares SVR performed the best for BFP with $\sim 11\%$ error when trained on 80 percent of the data. Our findings position the $p$-Laplacian model as a promising tool for healthcare applications, particularly in a data-constrained environment.