Chun Ouyang

Chihcheng Hsieh, Isabel Blanco Nobre, Sandra Costa Sousa et al.

This study investigates the effects of including patients' clinical information on the performance of deep learning (DL) classifiers for disease location in chest X-ray images. Although current classifiers achieve high performance using chest X-ray images alone, our interviews with radiologists indicate that clinical data is highly informative and essential for interpreting images and making proper diagnoses. In this work, we propose a novel architecture consisting of two fusion methods that enable the model to simultaneously process patients' clinical data (structured data) and chest X-rays (image data). Since these data modalities are in different dimensional spaces, we propose a spatial arrangement strategy, spatialization, to facilitate the multimodal learning process in a Mask R-CNN model. We performed an extensive experimental evaluation using MIMIC-Eye, a dataset comprising modalities: MIMIC-CXR (chest X-ray images), MIMIC IV-ED (patients' clinical data), and REFLACX (annotations of disease locations in chest X-rays). Results show that incorporating patients' clinical data in a DL model together with the proposed fusion methods improves the disease localization in chest X-rays by 12\% in terms of Average Precision compared to a standard Mask R-CNN using only chest X-rays. Further ablation studies also emphasize the importance of multimodal DL architectures and the incorporation of patients' clinical data in disease localization. The architecture proposed in this work is publicly available to promote the scientific reproducibility of our study (https://github.com/ChihchengHsieh/multimodal-abnormalities-detection)

Zhipeng He, Chun Ouyang, Laith Alzubaidi et al.

Adversarial attacks are a potential threat to machine learning models by causing incorrect predictions through imperceptible perturbations to the input data. While these attacks have been extensively studied in unstructured data like images, applying them to tabular data, poses new challenges. These challenges arise from the inherent heterogeneity and complex feature interdependencies in tabular data, which differ from the image data. To account for this distinction, it is necessary to establish tailored imperceptibility criteria specific to tabular data. However, there is currently a lack of standardised metrics for assessing the imperceptibility of adversarial attacks on tabular data. To address this gap, we propose a set of key properties and corresponding metrics designed to comprehensively characterise imperceptible adversarial attacks on tabular data. These are: proximity to the original input, sparsity of altered features, deviation from the original data distribution, sensitivity in perturbing features with narrow distribution, immutability of certain features that should remain unchanged, feasibility of specific feature values that should not go beyond valid practical ranges, and feature interdependencies capturing complex relationships between data attributes. We evaluate the imperceptibility of five adversarial attacks, including both bounded attacks and unbounded attacks, on tabular data using the proposed imperceptibility metrics. The results reveal a trade-off between the imperceptibility and effectiveness of these attacks. The study also identifies limitations in current attack algorithms, offering insights that can guide future research in the area. The findings gained from this empirical analysis provide valuable direction for enhancing the design of adversarial attack algorithms, thereby advancing adversarial machine learning on tabular data.

Catarina Moreira, Yu-Liang Chou, Chihcheng Hsieh et al.

This study investigates the impact of machine learning models on the generation of counterfactual explanations by conducting a benchmark evaluation over three different types of models: a decision tree (fully transparent, interpretable, white-box model), a random forest (semi-interpretable, grey-box model), and a neural network (fully opaque, black-box model). We tested the counterfactual generation process using four algorithms (DiCE, WatcherCF, prototype, and GrowingSpheresCF) in the literature in 25 different datasets. Our findings indicate that: (1) Different machine learning models have little impact on the generation of counterfactual explanations; (2) Counterfactual algorithms based uniquely on proximity loss functions are not actionable and will not provide meaningful explanations; (3) One cannot have meaningful evaluation results without guaranteeing plausibility in the counterfactual generation. Algorithms that do not consider plausibility in their internal mechanisms will lead to biased and unreliable conclusions if evaluated with the current state-of-the-art metrics; (4) A counterfactual inspection analysis is strongly recommended to ensure a robust examination of counterfactual explanations and the potential identification of biases.

Mythreyi Velmurugan, Chun Ouyang, Yue Xu et al.

Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques are used to provide transparency to complex, opaque predictive models. However, these techniques are often designed for image and text data, and it is unclear how fit-for-purpose they are when applied to tabular data. As XAI techniques are rarely evaluated in settings with tabular data, the applicability of existing evaluation criteria and methods are also unclear and needs (re-)examination. For example, some works suggest that evaluation methods may unduly influence the evaluation results when using tabular data. This lack of clarity on evaluation procedures can lead to reduced transparency and ineffective use of XAI techniques in real world settings. In this study, we examine literature on XAI evaluation to derive guidelines on functionally-grounded assessment of local, post hoc XAI techniques. We identify 20 evaluation criteria and associated evaluation methods, and derive guidelines on when and how each criterion should be evaluated. We also identify key research gaps to be addressed by future work. Our study contributes to the body of knowledge on XAI evaluation through in-depth examination of functionally-grounded XAI evaluation protocols, and has laid the groundwork for future research on XAI evaluation.

Chunlei Meng, Jiabin Luo, Pengbin Feng et al.

Multimodal Sentiment Analysis (MSA) requires integrating language, acoustic, and visual signals without sacrificing modality-specific sentiment evidence. Existing methods mainly improve either shared-private decomposition or cross-modal interaction. Although effective, both ultimately depend on how shared and modality-specific evidence is organized before prediction. We observe that, under standard shared-private pipelines, modality heterogeneity often induces a branch-imbalance process: dominant shared patterns accumulate in the shared branch, yielding redundant and modality-biased evidence, while repeated interaction and rigid alignment gradually leak shared information into modality-specific channels and weaken discriminative private representations. As a result, the complementarity between shared and private representations is reduced, limiting robust sentiment reasoning. To address this issue, we propose the Dual-Branch Rebalancing Framework (DBR) on top of a standard multimodal decoupling stage. In the shared branch, a Temporal-Structural Factorization (TSF) module disentangles temporal evolution from structural dependencies and adaptively integrates them to reduce shared redundancy. In the private branch, an Anchor-Guided Private Routing (AGPR) module preserves discriminative modality-specific patterns while allowing controlled cross-modal borrowing. A Bidirectional Rebalancing Fusion (BRF) module then reunifies the two regularized branches in a context-aware manner for final prediction. Extensive experiments on CMU-MOSI, CMU-MOSEI, and MIntRec demonstrate that DBR consistently outperforms the compared baselines. Further analyses show that these improvements come from coordinated mitigation of branch imbalance.

Chihcheng Hsieh, Catarina Moreira, Isabel Blanco Nobre et al.

X-ray images are vital in medical diagnostics, but their effectiveness is limited without clinical context. Radiologists often find chest X-rays insufficient for diagnosing underlying diseases, necessitating the integration of structured clinical features with radiology reports. To address this, we introduce DALL-M, a novel framework that enhances clinical datasets by generating contextual synthetic data. DALL-M augments structured patient data, including vital signs (e.g., heart rate, oxygen saturation), radiology findings (e.g., lesion presence), and demographic factors. It integrates this tabular data with contextual knowledge extracted from radiology reports and domain-specific resources (e.g., Radiopaedia, Wikipedia), ensuring clinical consistency and reliability. DALL-M follows a three-phase process: (i) clinical context storage, (ii) expert query generation, and (iii) context-aware feature augmentation. Using large language models (LLMs), it generates both contextual synthetic values for existing clinical features and entirely new, clinically relevant features. Applied to 799 cases from the MIMIC-IV dataset, DALL-M expanded the original 9 clinical features to 91. Empirical validation with machine learning models (including Decision Trees, Random Forests, XGBoost, and TabNET) demonstrated a 16.5% improvement in F1 score and a 25% increase in Precision and Recall. DALL-M bridges an important gap in clinical data augmentation by preserving data integrity while enhancing predictive modeling in healthcare. Our results show that integrating LLM-generated synthetic features significantly improves model performance, making DALL-M a scalable and practical approach for AI-driven medical diagnostics.

Chunlei Meng, Jiabin Luo, Zhenglin Yan et al.

Multimodal Sentiment Analysis (MSA) integrates language, visual, and acoustic modalities to infer human sentiment. Most existing methods either focus on globally shared representations or modality-specific features, while overlooking signals that are shared only by certain modality pairs. This limits the expressiveness and discriminative power of multimodal representations. To address this limitation, we propose a Tri-Subspace Disentanglement (TSD) framework that explicitly factorizes features into three complementary subspaces: a common subspace capturing global consistency, submodally-shared subspaces modeling pairwise cross-modal synergies, and private subspaces preserving modality-specific cues. To keep these subspaces pure and independent, we introduce a decoupling supervisor together with structured regularization losses. We further design a Subspace-Aware Cross-Attention (SACA) fusion module that adaptively models and integrates information from the three subspaces to obtain richer and more robust representations. Experiments on CMU-MOSI and CMU-MOSEI demonstrate that TSD achieves state-of-the-art performance across all key metrics, reaching 0.691 MAE on CMU-MOSI and 54.9% ACC-7 on CMU-MOSEI, and also transfers well to multimodal intent recognition tasks. Ablation studies confirm that tri-subspace disentanglement and SACA jointly enhance the modeling of multi-granular cross-modal sentiment cues.

Chunlei Meng, Ziyang Zhou, Lucas He et al.

Multimodal Sentiment Analysis integrates Linguistic, Visual, and Acoustic. Mainstream approaches based on modality-invariant and modality-specific factorization or on complex fusion still rely on spatiotemporal mixed modeling. This ignores spatiotemporal heterogeneity, leading to spatiotemporal information asymmetry and thus limited performance. Hence, we propose TSDA, Temporal-Spatial Decouple before Act, which explicitly decouples each modality into temporal dynamics and spatial structural context before any interaction. For every modality, a temporal encoder and a spatial encoder project signals into separate temporal and spatial body. Factor-Consistent Cross-Modal Alignment then aligns temporal features only with their temporal counterparts across modalities, and spatial features only with their spatial counterparts. Factor specific supervision and decorrelation regularization reduce cross factor leakage while preserving complementarity. A Gated Recouple module subsequently recouples the aligned streams for task. Extensive experiments show that TSDA outperforms baselines. Ablation analysis studies confirm the necessity and interpretability of the design.

Chunlei Meng, Guanhong Huang, Rong Fu et al.

Multimodal learning aims to capture both shared and private information from multiple modalities. However, existing methods that project all modalities into a single latent space for fusion often overlook the asynchronous, multi-level semantic structure of multimodal data. This oversight induces semantic misalignment and error propagation, thereby degrading representation quality. To address this issue, we propose Cross-Level Co-Representation (CLCR), which explicitly organizes each modality's features into a three-level semantic hierarchy and specifies level-wise constraints for cross-modal interactions. First, a semantic hierarchy encoder aligns shallow, mid, and deep features across modalities, establishing a common basis for interaction. And then, at each level, an Intra-Level Co-Exchange Domain (IntraCED) factorizes features into shared and private subspaces and restricts cross-modal attention to the shared subspace via a learnable token budget. This design ensures that only shared semantics are exchanged and prevents leakage from private channels. To integrate information across levels, the Inter-Level Co-Aggregation Domain (InterCAD) synchronizes semantic scales using learned anchors, selectively fuses the shared representations, and gates private cues to form a compact task representation. We further introduce regularization terms to enforce separation of shared and private features and to minimize cross-level interference. Experiments on six benchmarks spanning emotion recognition, event localization, sentiment analysis, and action recognition show that CLCR achieves strong performance and generalizes well across tasks.

Yi Liu, Hongda Zhang, Zhongxue Gan et al.

Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) is a prominent swarm intelligence algorithm extensively applied to path planning. However, traditional ACO methods often exhibit shortcomings, such as blind search behavior and slow convergence within complex environments. To address these challenges, this paper proposes the Pheromone-Focused Ant Colony Optimization (PFACO) algorithm, which introduces three key strategies to enhance the problem-solving ability of the ant colony. First, the initial pheromone distribution is concentrated in more promising regions based on the Euclidean distances of nodes to the start and end points, balancing the trade-off between exploration and exploitation. Second, promising solutions are reinforced during colony iterations to intensify pheromone deposition along high-quality paths, accelerating convergence while maintaining solution diversity. Third, a forward-looking mechanism is implemented to penalize redundant path turns, promoting smoother and more efficient solutions. These strategies collectively produce the focused pheromones to guide the ant colony's search, which enhances the global optimization capabilities of the PFACO algorithm, significantly improving convergence speed and solution quality across diverse optimization problems. The experimental results demonstrate that PFACO consistently outperforms comparative ACO algorithms in terms of convergence speed and solution quality.

Bowen Liu, Chunlei Meng, Wei Lin et al.

Accurate vascular segmentation is essential for coronary visualization and the diagnosis of coronary heart disease. This task involves the extraction of sparse tree-like vascular branches from the volumetric space. However, existing methods have faced significant challenges due to discontinuous vascular segmentation and missing endpoints. To address this issue, a 3D vision graph neural network framework, named ViG3D-UNet, was introduced. This method integrates 3D graph representation and aggregation within a U-shaped architecture to facilitate continuous vascular segmentation. The ViG3D module captures volumetric vascular connectivity and topology, while the convolutional module extracts fine vascular details. These two branches are combined through channel attention to form the encoder feature. Subsequently, a paperclip-shaped offset decoder minimizes redundant computations in the sparse feature space and restores the feature map size to match the original input dimensions. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed approach for continuous vascular segmentation, evaluations were performed on two public datasets, ASOCA and ImageCAS. The segmentation results show that the ViG3D-UNet surpassed competing methods in maintaining vascular segmentation connectivity while achieving high segmentation accuracy. Our code will be available soon.

Mythreyi Velmurugan, Chun Ouyang, Catarina Moreira et al.

Predictive process analytics focuses on predicting the future states of running instances of a business process. While advanced machine learning techniques have been used to increase accuracy of predictions, the resulting predictive models lack transparency. Current explainable machine learning methods, such as LIME and SHAP, can be used to interpret black box models. However, it is unclear how fit for purpose these methods are in explaining process predictive models. In this paper, we draw on evaluation measures used in the field of explainable AI and propose functionally-grounded evaluation metrics for assessing explainable methods in predictive process analytics. We apply the proposed metrics to evaluate the performance of LIME and SHAP in interpreting process predictive models built on XGBoost, which has been shown to be relatively accurate in process predictions. We conduct the evaluation using three open source, real-world event logs and analyse the evaluation results to derive insights. The research contributes to understanding the trustworthiness of explainable methods for predictive process analytics as a fundamental and key step towards human user-oriented evaluation.

Catarina Moreira, Yu-Liang Chou, Mythreyi Velmurugan et al.

The use of sophisticated machine learning models for critical decision making is faced with a challenge that these models are often applied as a "black-box". This has led to an increased interest in interpretable machine learning, where post hoc interpretation presents a useful mechanism for generating interpretations of complex learning models. In this paper, we propose a novel approach underpinned by an extended framework of Bayesian networks for generating post hoc interpretations of a black-box predictive model. The framework supports extracting a Bayesian network as an approximation of the black-box model for a specific prediction. Compared to the existing post hoc interpretation methods, the contribution of our approach is three-fold. Firstly, the extracted Bayesian network, as a probabilistic graphical model, can provide interpretations about not only what input features but also why these features contributed to a prediction. Secondly, for complex decision problems with many features, a Markov blanket can be generated from the extracted Bayesian network to provide interpretations with a focused view on those input features that directly contributed to a prediction. Thirdly, the extracted Bayesian network enables the identification of four different rules which can inform the decision-maker about the confidence level in a prediction, thus helping the decision-maker assess the reliability of predictions learned by a black-box model. We implemented the proposed approach, applied it in the context of two well-known public datasets and analysed the results, which are made available in an open-source repository.

Chunlei Meng, Pengbin Feng, Rong Fu et al.

Centralized multimodal learning commonly compresses language, acoustic, and visual signals into a single fused representation for prediction. While effective, this paradigm suffers from two limitations: modality dominance, where optimization gravitates towards the path of least resistance, ignoring weaker but informative modalities, and spurious modality coupling, where models overfit to incidental cross-modal correlations. To address these, we propose Group Cognition Learning (GCL), a governed collaboration paradigm that applies a two-stage protocol after modality-specific encoding. In Stage 1 (Selective Interaction), a Routing Agent proposes directed interaction routes, and an Auditing Agent assigns sample-wise gates to emphasize exchanges that yield positive marginal predictive gain while suppressing redundant coupling. In Stage 2 (Consensus Formation), a Public-Factor Agent maintains an explicit shared factor, and an Aggregation Agent produces the final prediction through contribution-aware weighting while keeping each modality representation as a specialization channel. Extensive experiments on CMU-MOSI, CMU-MOSEI, and MIntRec demonstrate that GCL mitigates dominance and coupling, establishing state-of-the-art results across both regression and classification benchmarks. Analysis experiments further demonstrate the effectiveness of the design.

Wei Guan, Jian Cao, Shiyou Qian et al.

Software systems often record important runtime information in logs to help with troubleshooting. Log-based anomaly detection has become a key research area that aims to identify system issues through log data, ultimately enhancing the reliability of software systems. Traditional deep learning methods often struggle to capture the semantic information embedded in log data, which is typically organized in natural language. In this paper, we propose LogLLM, a log-based anomaly detection framework that leverages large language models (LLMs). LogLLM employs BERT for extracting semantic vectors from log messages, while utilizing Llama, a transformer decoder-based model, for classifying log sequences. Additionally, we introduce a projector to align the vector representation spaces of BERT and Llama, ensuring a cohesive understanding of log semantics. Unlike conventional methods that require log parsers to extract templates, LogLLM preprocesses log messages with regular expressions, streamlining the entire process. Our framework is trained through a novel three-stage procedure designed to enhance performance and adaptability. Experimental results across four public datasets demonstrate that LogLLM outperforms state-of-the-art methods. Even when handling unstable logs, it effectively captures the semantic meaning of log messages and detects anomalies accurately.

Chunlei Meng, Jiacheng Yang, Wei Lin et al.

Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and vision transformers (ViTs) have become essential in computer vision for local and global feature extraction. However, aggregating these architectures in existing methods often results in inefficiencies. To address this, the CNN-Transformer Aggregation Network (CTA-Net) was developed. CTA-Net combines CNNs and ViTs, with transformers capturing long-range dependencies and CNNs extracting localized features. This integration enables efficient processing of detailed local and broader contextual information. CTA-Net introduces the Light Weight Multi-Scale Feature Fusion Multi-Head Self-Attention (LMF-MHSA) module for effective multi-scale feature integration with reduced parameters. Additionally, the Reverse Reconstruction CNN-Variants (RRCV) module enhances the embedding of CNNs within the transformer architecture. Extensive experiments on small-scale datasets with fewer than 100,000 samples show that CTA-Net achieves superior performance (TOP-1 Acc 86.76\%), fewer parameters (20.32M), and greater efficiency (FLOPs 2.83B), making it a highly efficient and lightweight solution for visual tasks on small-scale datasets (fewer than 100,000).

Zhipeng He, Chun Ouyang, Lijie Wen et al.

Adversarial attacks pose a significant threat to machine learning models by inducing incorrect predictions through imperceptible perturbations to input data. While these attacks are well studied in unstructured domains such as images, their behaviour on tabular data remains underexplored due to mixed feature types and complex inter-feature dependencies. This study introduces a comprehensive benchmark that evaluates adversarial attacks on tabular datasets with respect to both effectiveness and imperceptibility. We assess five white-box attack algorithms (FGSM, BIM, PGD, DeepFool, and C\&W) across four representative models (LR, MLP, TabTransformer and FT-Transformer) using eleven datasets spanning finance, energy, and healthcare domains. The benchmark employs four quantitative imperceptibility metrics (proximity, sparsity, deviation, and sensitivity) to characterise perturbation realism. The analysis quantifies the trade-off between these two aspects and reveals consistent differences between attack types, with $\ell_\infty$-based attacks achieving higher success but lower subtlety, and $\ell_2$-based attacks offering more realistic perturbations. The benchmark findings offer actionable insights for designing more imperceptible adversarial attacks, advancing the understanding of adversarial vulnerability in tabular machine learning.

Jia Wei, Xin Su, Chun Ouyang

Integrating Internet of Things (IoT) data with business process event logs is crucial for analysing IoT-enhanced processes, yet remains challenging due to differences in abstraction levels and the separation of data sources. Simply incorporating raw IoT data increases the size and complexity of the resulting log, often requiring additional processing before process analysis can be performed. While tools for generating IoT-enriched event logs exist, they either rely on specialised schemas or focus on extracting event logs from sensor data, offering limited support for integrating process-relevant IoT data into existing event logs. To address this gap, we present IOTEL, a tool for systematically generating IoT-enriched object-centric event logs (OCEL). By building on the OCEL schema, IOTEL enables structured IoT data integration compatible with existing process mining tools. It support practitioners and researchers in analysing IoT-enhanced business processes, as demonstrated in a real-world scenario. A video demonstrating the tool is available online.

Mohammed Osman Gani, Zhipeng He, Chun Ouyang et al.

Accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) is essential for operational planning, trading, and flexible asset scheduling in liberalised power systems, yet remains challenging due to volatility, heavy-tailed spikes, and frequent regime shifts. While deep learning (DL) has been increasingly adopted in EPF to capture complex and nonlinear price dynamics, several important gaps persist: (i) limited attention to multi-day horizons beyond day-ahead forecasting, (ii) insufficient exploration of state-of-the-art (SOTA) time series DL models, and (iii) a predominant reliance on aggregated horizon-level evaluation that obscures time-of-day forecasting variation. To address these gaps, we propose a novel EPF framework that extends the forecast horizon to multi-day-ahead by systematically building forecasting models that leverage benchmarked SOTA time series DL models. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation to analyse time-of-day forecasting performance by integrating model assessment at intraday interval levels across all five regions in the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM). The results show that no single model consistently dominates across regions, metrics, and horizons. Overall, standard DL models deliver superior performance in most regions, while SOTA time series DL models demonstrate greater robustness to forecast horizon extension. Intraday interval-level evaluation reveals pronounced diurnal error patterns, indicating that absolute errors peak during the evening ramp, relative errors inflate during midday negative-price regimes, and directional accuracy degrades during periods of frequent trend changes. These findings suggest that future research on DL-based EPF can benefit from enriched feature representations and modelling strategies that enhance longer-term forecasting robustness while maintaining sensitivity to intraday volatility and structural price dynamics.

Zhipeng He, Alexander Stevens, Chun Ouyang et al.

Adversarial attacks on tabular data present unique challenges due to the heterogeneous nature of mixed categorical and numerical features. Unlike images where pixel perturbations maintain visual similarity, tabular data lacks intuitive similarity metrics, making it difficult to define imperceptible modifications. Additionally, traditional gradient-based methods prioritise $\ell_p$-norm constraints, often producing adversarial examples that deviate from the original data distributions. To address this, we propose a latent-space perturbation framework using a mixed-input Variational Autoencoder (VAE) to generate statistically consistent adversarial examples. The proposed VAE integrates categorical embeddings and numerical features into a unified latent manifold, enabling perturbations that preserve statistical consistency. We introduce In-Distribution Success Rate (IDSR) to jointly evaluate attack effectiveness and distributional alignment. Evaluation across six publicly available datasets and three model architectures demonstrates that our method achieves substantially lower outlier rates and more consistent performance compared to traditional input-space attacks and other VAE-based methods adapted from image domain approaches, achieving substantially lower outlier rates and higher IDSR across six datasets and three model architectures. Our comprehensive analyses of hyperparameter sensitivity, sparsity control, and generative architecture demonstrate that the effectiveness of VAE-based attacks depends strongly on reconstruction quality and the availability of sufficient training data. When these conditions are met, the proposed framework achieves superior practical utility and stability compared with input-space methods. This work underscores the importance of maintaining on-manifold perturbations for generating realistic and robust adversarial examples in tabular domains.

Alexander Stevens, Chun Ouyang, Johannes De Smedt et al.

In recent years, various machine and deep learning architectures have been successfully introduced to the field of predictive process analytics. Nevertheless, the inherent opacity of these algorithms poses a significant challenge for human decision-makers, hindering their ability to understand the reasoning behind the predictions. This growing concern has sparked the introduction of counterfactual explanations, designed as human-understandable what if scenarios, to provide clearer insights into the decision-making process behind undesirable predictions. The generation of counterfactual explanations, however, encounters specific challenges when dealing with the sequential nature of the (business) process cases typically used in predictive process analytics. Our paper tackles this challenge by introducing a data-driven approach, REVISEDplus, to generate more feasible and plausible counterfactual explanations. First, we restrict the counterfactual algorithm to generate counterfactuals that lie within a high-density region of the process data, ensuring that the proposed counterfactuals are realistic and feasible within the observed process data distribution. Additionally, we ensure plausibility by learning sequential patterns between the activities in the process cases, utilising Declare language templates. Finally, we evaluate the properties that define the validity of counterfactuals.

Bemali Wickramanayake, Zhipeng He, Chun Ouyang et al.

In this paper, we address the "black-box" problem in predictive process analytics by building interpretable models that are capable to inform both what and why is a prediction. Predictive process analytics is a newly emerged discipline dedicated to providing business process intelligence in modern organisations. It uses event logs, which capture process execution traces in the form of multi-dimensional sequence data, as the key input to train predictive models. These predictive models, often built upon deep learning techniques, can be used to make predictions about the future states of business process execution. We apply attention mechanism to achieve model interpretability. We propose i) two types of attentions: event attention to capture the impact of specific process events on a prediction, and attribute attention to reveal which attribute(s) of an event influenced the prediction; and ii) two attention mechanisms: shared attention mechanism and specialised attention mechanism to reflect different design decisions in when to construct attribute attention on individual input features (specialised) or using the concatenated feature tensor of all input feature vectors (shared). These lead to two distinct attention-based models, and both are interpretable models that incorporate interpretability directly into the structure of a process predictive model. We conduct experimental evaluation of the proposed models using real-life dataset, and comparative analysis between the models for accuracy and interpretability, and draw insights from the evaluation and analysis results.

Chihcheng Hsieh, Catarina Moreira, Chun Ouyang

Predictive process analytics often apply machine learning to predict the future states of a running business~process. However, the internal mechanisms of many existing predictive algorithms are opaque and a human decision-maker is unable to understand \emph{why} a certain activity was predicted. Recently, counterfactuals have been proposed in the literature to derive human-understandable explanations from predictive models. Current counterfactual approaches consist of finding the minimum feature change that can make a certain prediction flip its outcome. Although many algorithms have been proposed, their application to multi-dimensional sequence data like event logs has not been explored in the literature. In this paper, we explore the use of a recent, popular model-agnostic counterfactual algorithm, DiCE, in the context of predictive process analytics. The analysis reveals that DiCE is unable to derive explanations for process predictions, due to (1) process domain knowledge not being taken into account, (2) long traces of process execution that often tend to be less understandable, and (3) difficulties in optimising the counterfactual search with categorical variables. We design an extension of DiCE, namely DiCE4EL (DiCE for Event Logs), that can generate counterfactual explanations for process prediction, and propose an approach that supports deriving milestone-aware counterfactual explanations at key intermediate stages along process execution to promote interpretability. We apply our approach to a publicly available real-life event log and the analysis results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Chun Ouyang, Renuka Sindhgatta, Catarina Moreira

Modern data analytics underpinned by machine learning techniques has become a key enabler to the automation of data-led decision making. As an important branch of state-of-the-art data analytics, business process predictions are also faced with a challenge in regard to the lack of explanation to the reasoning and decision by the underlying `black-box' prediction models. With the development of interpretable machine learning techniques, explanations can be generated for a black-box model, making it possible for (human) users to access the reasoning behind machine learned predictions. In this paper, we aim to present an approach that allows us to use model explanations to investigate certain reasoning applied by machine learned predictions and detect potential issues with the underlying methods thus enhancing trust in business process prediction models. A novel contribution of our approach is the proposal of model inspection that leverages both the explanations generated by interpretable machine learning mechanisms and the contextual or domain knowledge extracted from event logs that record historical process execution. Findings drawn from this work are expected to serve as a key input to developing model reliability metrics and evaluation in the context of business process predictions.

Mythreyi Velmurugan, Chun Ouyang, Catarina Moreira et al.

Although modern machine learning and deep learning methods allow for complex and in-depth data analytics, the predictive models generated by these methods are often highly complex, and lack transparency. Explainable AI (XAI) methods are used to improve the interpretability of these complex models, and in doing so improve transparency. However, the inherent fitness of these explainable methods can be hard to evaluate. In particular, methods to evaluate the fidelity of the explanation to the underlying black box require further development, especially for tabular data. In this paper, we (a) propose a three phase approach to developing an evaluation method; (b) adapt an existing evaluation method primarily for image and text data to evaluate models trained on tabular data; and (c) evaluate two popular explainable methods using this evaluation method. Our evaluations suggest that the internal mechanism of the underlying predictive model, the internal mechanism of the explainable method used and model and data complexity all affect explanation fidelity. Given that explanation fidelity is so sensitive to context and tools and data used, we could not clearly identify any specific explainable method as being superior to another.

Yu-Liang Chou, Catarina Moreira, Peter Bruza et al.

There has been a growing interest in model-agnostic methods that can make deep learning models more transparent and explainable to a user. Some researchers recently argued that for a machine to achieve a certain degree of human-level explainability, this machine needs to provide human causally understandable explanations, also known as causability. A specific class of algorithms that have the potential to provide causability are counterfactuals. This paper presents an in-depth systematic review of the diverse existing body of literature on counterfactuals and causability for explainable artificial intelligence. We performed an LDA topic modelling analysis under a PRISMA framework to find the most relevant literature articles. This analysis resulted in a novel taxonomy that considers the grounding theories of the surveyed algorithms, together with their underlying properties and applications in real-world data. This research suggests that current model-agnostic counterfactual algorithms for explainable AI are not grounded on a causal theoretical formalism and, consequently, cannot promote causability to a human decision-maker. Our findings suggest that the explanations derived from major algorithms in the literature provide spurious correlations rather than cause/effects relationships, leading to sub-optimal, erroneous or even biased explanations. This paper also advances the literature with new directions and challenges on promoting causability in model-agnostic approaches for explainable artificial intelligence.

Bemali Wickramanayake, Dakshi Kapugama Geeganage, Chun Ouyang et al.

Card payment fraud is a serious problem, and a roadblock for an optimally functioning digital economy, with cards (Debits and Credit) being the most popular digital payment method across the globe. Despite the occurrence of fraud could be relatively rare, the impact of fraud could be significant, especially on the cardholder. In the research, there have been many attempts to develop methods of detecting potentially fraudulent transactions based on data mining techniques, predominantly exploiting the developments in the space of machine learning over the last decade. This survey proposes a taxonomy based on a review of existing research attempts and experiments, which mainly elaborates the approaches taken by researchers to incorporate the (i) business impact of fraud (and fraud detection) into their work , (ii) the feature engineering techniques that focus on cardholder behavioural profiling to separate fraudulent activities happening with the same card, and (iii) the adaptive efforts taken to address the changing nature of fraud. Further, there will be a comparative performance evaluation of classification algorithms used and efforts of addressing class imbalance problem. Forty-five peer-reviewed papers published in the domain of card fraud detection between 2009 and 2020 were intensively reviewed to develop this paper.

Jing Yang, Chun Ouyang, Wil M. P. van der Aalst et al.

Providing appropriate structures around human resources can streamline operations and thus facilitate the competitiveness of an organization. To achieve this goal, modern organizations need to acquire an accurate and timely understanding of human resource grouping while faced with an ever-changing environment. The use of process mining offers a promising way to help address the need through utilizing event log data stored in information systems. By extracting knowledge about the actual behavior of resources participating in business processes from event logs, organizational models can be constructed, which facilitate the analysis of the de facto grouping of human resources relevant to process execution. Nevertheless, open research gaps remain to be addressed when applying the state-of-the-art process mining to analyze resource grouping. For one, the discovery of organizational models has only limited connections with the context of process execution. For another, a rigorous solution that evaluates organizational models against event log data is yet to be proposed. In this paper, we aim to tackle these research challenges by developing a novel framework built upon a richer definition of organizational models coupling resource grouping with process execution knowledge. By introducing notions of conformance checking for organizational models, the framework allows effective evaluation of organizational models, and therefore provides a foundation for analyzing and improving resource grouping based on event logs. We demonstrate the feasibility of this framework by proposing an approach underpinned by the framework for organizational model discovery, and also conduct experiments on real-life event logs to discover and evaluate organizational models.

Catarina Moreira, Renuka Sindhgatta, Chun Ouyang et al.

This paper explores interpretability techniques for two of the most successful learning algorithms in medical decision-making literature: deep neural networks and random forests. We applied these algorithms in a real-world medical dataset containing information about patients with cancer, where we learn models that try to predict the type of cancer of the patient, given their set of medical activity records. We explored different algorithms based on neural network architectures using long short term deep neural networks, and random forests. Since there is a growing need to provide decision-makers understandings about the logic of predictions of black boxes, we also explored different techniques that provide interpretations for these classifiers. In one of the techniques, we intercepted some hidden layers of these neural networks and used autoencoders in order to learn what is the representation of the input in the hidden layers. In another, we investigated an interpretable model locally around the random forest's prediction. Results show learning an interpretable model locally around the model's prediction leads to a higher understanding of why the algorithm is making some decision. Use of local and linear model helps identify the features used in prediction of a specific instance or data point. We see certain distinct features used for predictions that provide useful insights about the type of cancer, along with features that do not generalize well. In addition, the structured deep learning approach using autoencoders provided meaningful prediction insights, which resulted in the identification of nonlinear clusters correspondent to the patients' different types of cancer.

Renuka Sindhgatta, Chun Ouyang, Catarina Moreira

Modern predictive analytics underpinned by machine learning techniques has become a key enabler to the automation of data-driven decision making. In the context of business process management, predictive analytics has been applied to making predictions about the future state of an ongoing business process instance, for example, when will the process instance complete and what will be the outcome upon completion. Machine learning models can be trained on event log data recording historical process execution to build the underlying predictive models. Multiple techniques have been proposed so far which encode the information available in an event log and construct input features required to train a predictive model. While accuracy has been a dominant criterion in the choice of various techniques, they are often applied as a black-box in building predictive models. In this paper, we derive explanations using interpretable machine learning techniques to compare and contrast the suitability of multiple predictive models of high accuracy. The explanations allow us to gain an understanding of the underlying reasons for a prediction and highlight scenarios where accuracy alone may not be sufficient in assessing the suitability of techniques used to encode event log data to features used by a predictive model. Findings from this study motivate the need and importance to incorporate interpretability in predictive process analytics.

Artem Polyvyanyy, Arthur H. M. ter Hofstede, Marcello La Rosa et al.

Organizations can benefit from the use of practices, techniques, and tools from the area of business process management. Through the focus on processes, they create process models that require management, including support for versioning, refactoring and querying. Querying thus far has primarily focused on structural properties of models rather than on exploiting behavioral properties capturing aspects of model execution. While the latter is more challenging, it is also more effective, especially when models are used for auditing or process automation. The focus of this paper is to overcome the challenges associated with behavioral querying of process models in order to unlock its benefits. The first challenge concerns determining decidability of the building blocks of the query language, which are the possible behavioral relations between process tasks. The second challenge concerns achieving acceptable performance of query evaluation. The evaluation of a query may require expensive checks in all process models, of which there may be thousands. In light of these challenges, this paper proposes a special-purpose programming language, namely Process Query Language (PQL) for behavioral querying of process model collections. The language relies on a set of behavioral predicates between process tasks, whose usefulness has been empirically evaluated with a pool of process model stakeholders. This study resulted in a selection of the predicates to be implemented in PQL, whose decidability has also been formally proven. The computational performance of the language has been extensively evaluated through a set of experiments against two large process model collections.