Uri Shalit

Guy Tennenholtz, Nadav Merlis, Lior Shani et al. · nvidia

We present the problem of reinforcement learning with exogenous termination. We define the Termination Markov Decision Process (TerMDP), an extension of the MDP framework, in which episodes may be interrupted by an external non-Markovian observer. This formulation accounts for numerous real-world situations, such as a human interrupting an autonomous driving agent for reasons of discomfort. We learn the parameters of the TerMDP and leverage the structure of the estimation problem to provide state-wise confidence bounds. We use these to construct a provably-efficient algorithm, which accounts for termination, and bound its regret. Motivated by our theoretical analysis, we design and implement a scalable approach, which combines optimism (w.r.t. termination) and a dynamic discount factor, incorporating the termination probability. We deploy our method on high-dimensional driving and MinAtar benchmarks. Additionally, we test our approach on human data in a driving setting. Our results demonstrate fast convergence and significant improvement over various baseline approaches.

Andrew Jesson, Alyson Douglas, Peter Manshausen et al.

Estimating the effects of continuous-valued interventions from observational data is a critically important task for climate science, healthcare, and economics. Recent work focuses on designing neural network architectures and regularization functions to allow for scalable estimation of average and individual-level dose-response curves from high-dimensional, large-sample data. Such methodologies assume ignorability (observation of all confounding variables) and positivity (observation of all treatment levels for every covariate value describing a set of units), assumptions problematic in the continuous treatment regime. Scalable sensitivity and uncertainty analyses to understand the ignorance induced in causal estimates when these assumptions are relaxed are less studied. Here, we develop a continuous treatment-effect marginal sensitivity model (CMSM) and derive bounds that agree with the observed data and a researcher-defined level of hidden confounding. We introduce a scalable algorithm and uncertainty-aware deep models to derive and estimate these bounds for high-dimensional, large-sample observational data. We work in concert with climate scientists interested in the climatological impacts of human emissions on cloud properties using satellite observations from the past 15 years. This problem is known to be complicated by many unobserved confounders.

Miruna Oprescu, Jacob Dorn, Marah Ghoummaid et al.

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from observational data is a crucial task across many fields, helping policy and decision-makers take better actions. There has been recent progress on robust and efficient methods for estimating the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) function, but these methods often do not take into account the risk of hidden confounding, which could arbitrarily and unknowingly bias any causal estimate based on observational data. We propose a meta-learner called the B-Learner, which can efficiently learn sharp bounds on the CATE function under limits on the level of hidden confounding. We derive the B-Learner by adapting recent results for sharp and valid bounds of the average treatment effect (Dorn et al., 2021) into the framework given by Kallus & Oprescu (2023) for robust and model-agnostic learning of conditional distributional treatment effects. The B-Learner can use any function estimator such as random forests and deep neural networks, and we prove its estimates are valid, sharp, efficient, and have a quasi-oracle property with respect to the constituent estimators under more general conditions than existing methods. Semi-synthetic experimental comparisons validate the theoretical findings, and we use real-world data to demonstrate how the method might be used in practice.

Yoav Wald, Gal Yona, Uri Shalit et al.

Learned classifiers should often possess certain invariance properties meant to encourage fairness, robustness, or out-of-distribution generalization. However, multiple recent works empirically demonstrate that common invariance-inducing regularizers are ineffective in the over-parameterized regime, in which classifiers perfectly fit (i.e. interpolate) the training data. This suggests that the phenomenon of "benign overfitting", in which models generalize well despite interpolating, might not favorably extend to settings in which robustness or fairness are desirable. In this work we provide a theoretical justification for these observations. We prove that -- even in the simplest of settings -- any interpolating learning rule (with arbitrarily small margin) will not satisfy these invariance properties. We then propose and analyze an algorithm that -- in the same setting -- successfully learns a non-interpolating classifier that is provably invariant. We validate our theoretical observations on simulated data and the Waterbirds dataset.

Jake Fawkes, Lucile Ter-Minassian, Desi Ivanova et al.

Merging datasets across institutions is a lengthy and costly procedure, especially when it involves private information. Data hosts may therefore want to prospectively gauge which datasets are most beneficial to merge with, without revealing sensitive information. For causal estimation this is particularly challenging as the value of a merge depends not only on reduction in epistemic uncertainty but also on improvement in overlap. To address this challenge, we introduce the first cryptographically secure information-theoretic approach for quantifying the value of a merge in the context of heterogeneous treatment effect estimation. We do this by evaluating the Expected Information Gain (EIG) using multi-party computation to ensure that no raw data is revealed. We further demonstrate that our approach can be combined with differential privacy (DP) to meet arbitrary privacy requirements whilst preserving more accurate computation compared to DP alone. To the best of our knowledge, this work presents the first privacy-preserving method for dataset acquisition tailored to causal estimation. We demonstrate the effectiveness and reliability of our method on a range of simulated and realistic benchmarks. Code is publicly available: https://github.com/LucileTerminassian/causal_prospective_merge.

Mehran Kazemi, Bahare Fatemi, Hritik Bansal et al. · deepmind

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in everyday applications, demanding robust general reasoning capabilities and diverse reasoning skillset. However, current LLM reasoning benchmarks predominantly focus on mathematical and coding abilities, leaving a gap in evaluating broader reasoning proficiencies. One particular exception is the BIG-Bench dataset, which has served as a crucial benchmark for evaluating the general reasoning capabilities of LLMs, thanks to its diverse set of challenging tasks that allowed for a comprehensive assessment of general reasoning across various skills within a unified framework. However, recent advances in LLMs have led to saturation on BIG-Bench, and its harder version BIG-Bench Hard (BBH). State-of-the-art models achieve near-perfect scores on many tasks in BBH, thus diminishing its utility. To address this limitation, we introduce BIG-Bench Extra Hard (BBEH), a new benchmark designed to push the boundaries of LLM reasoning evaluation. BBEH replaces each task in BBH with a novel task that probes a similar reasoning capability but exhibits significantly increased difficulty. We evaluate various models on BBEH and observe a (harmonic) average accuracy of 9.8\% for the best general-purpose model and 44.8\% for the best reasoning-specialized model, indicating substantial room for improvement and highlighting the ongoing challenge of achieving robust general reasoning in LLMs. We release BBEH publicly at: https://github.com/google-deepmind/bbeh.

Laura Fuentes-Vicente, Mathieu Even, Gaëlle Dormion et al.

Conventional treatment policies map patient covariates to a single recommended intervention in order to maximize expected clinical outcomes. Although a rich body of causal inference methods has been developed to estimate such policies, point-valued recommendations can be highly sensitive to estimation uncertainty, model specification, and finite-sample variability, while typically providing little guidance about how confident one should be in the recommended action. In this work, we propose a set-valued policy learning paradigm for the multiple-treatment setting, in which policies output a set of plausible treatments rather than a single recommendation. This formulation enables intrinsic uncertainty quantification, with the size of the predicted set reflecting the degree of decision ambiguity. We extend the learning-to-defer framework to multiple treatments via a novel \textit{greatest Lower Bound} method, and introduce \textit{conformal policy learning}, which bridges the gap between unobserved ground-truth optimal treatments and estimated optimal treatment rules. Drawing on insights from the noisy-label literature, we develop a randomness-injection approach that guarantees marginal coverage without requiring assumptions on underlying black-box optimal treatment rules. Through experiments on synthetic data and a real-world application to In-Vitro Fertilization (IVF), we demonstrate that our methods produce robust and actionable policies that naturally incorporate clinical considerations while effectively balancing performance and reliability.

Bar Eini Porat, Rom Gutman, Uri Shalit et al.

Explainability methods have progressed rapidly, but global explanations for time-series models remain underdeveloped, with most approaches focusing on local, instance-level attributions. We introduce INSIGHTS, a model-agnostic, user-centric approach for providing global explanations of time series models. Our approach prioritizes simplicity, efficiency, and transparency in its design, ensuring that stakeholders can readily adopt its outputs. While current methods focus on local explanations, INSIGHTS generates sample summaries that offer a comprehensive overview of model behavior. It balances the importance and diversity of time series samples to create informative subsets using utility functions that capture domain-specific aspects of time series behavior, such as exceeding domain norms. We evaluate INSIGHTS through experiments, interviews, and a user study. Our results indicate INSIGHTS effectively constructs comprehensive, diverse time series subsets, producing summaries manageable for individual evaluation. It is preferred by domain experts for its ability to provide a stable understanding of model behavior and the quality of the samples identified. Moreover, user study participants presented with INSIGHTS-based summaries exhibit an enhanced understanding of the model's overall behavior.

Guy Tennenholtz, Ofer Meshi, Amir Globerson et al.

Using offline datasets to evaluate conversational agents often fails to cover rare scenarios or to support testing new policies. This has motivated the use of controllable user simulators for targeted, counterfactual evaluation, typically implemented by prompting or fine-tuning large language models. In this work, we formalize controllable simulation as a causal inference problem. By bridging natural language evaluation with off-policy evaluation methodology, we show that the standard practice of training simulators via supervised fine-tuning on post-hoc trajectory labels yields a structurally biased model. Specifically, these labels are inextricably coupled to the data-generating behavior policy, injecting a look-ahead bias that breaks causal consistency. Furthermore, we prove that under policy shift this failure causes the variance of evaluation metrics to explode geometrically, a phenomenon we term controllability collapse. To restore causal consistency, we establish theoretical conditions for accurate simulation and propose practical training mitigations: a priori controls, step-wise dynamic controls, and direct policy-conditioned learning. Empirical evaluation confirms that while standard global controls distort conversational distributions and collapse behavioral diversity, our causally grounded simulators eliminate look-ahead bias, preserve natural variance, and exhibit robust zero-shot generalization to unseen agent behaviors.

Dovid Parnas, Mathieu Even, Julie Josse et al.

We introduce a new preference-based framework for conditional treatment effect estimation and policy learning, built on the Conditional Preference-based Treatment Effect (CPTE). CPTE requires only that outcomes be ranked under a preference rule, unlocking flexible modeling of heterogeneous effects with multivariate, ordinal, or preference-driven outcomes. This unifies applications such as conditional probability of necessity and sufficiency, conditional Win Ratio, and Generalized Pairwise Comparisons. Despite the intrinsic non-identifiability of comparison-based estimands, CPTE provides interpretable targets and delivers new identifiability conditions for previous unidentifiable estimands. We present estimation strategies via matching, quantile, and distributional regression, and further design efficient influence-function estimators to correct plug-in bias and maximize policy value. Synthetic and semi-synthetic experiments demonstrate clear performance gains and practical impact.

Yannay Alon, Steve Hanneke, Shay Moran et al.

Classic supervised learning involves algorithms trained on $n$ labeled examples to produce a hypothesis $h \in \mathcal{H}$ aimed at performing well on unseen examples. Meta-learning extends this by training across $n$ tasks, with $m$ examples per task, producing a hypothesis class $\mathcal{H}$ within some meta-class $\mathbb{H}$. This setting applies to many modern problems such as in-context learning, hypernetworks, and learning-to-learn. A common method for evaluating the performance of supervised learning algorithms is through their learning curve, which depicts the expected error as a function of the number of training examples. In meta-learning, the learning curve becomes a two-dimensional learning surface, which evaluates the expected error on unseen domains for varying values of $n$ (number of tasks) and $m$ (number of training examples). Our findings characterize the distribution-free learning surfaces of meta-Empirical Risk Minimizers when either $m$ or $n$ tend to infinity: we show that the number of tasks must increase inversely with the desired error. In contrast, we show that the number of examples exhibits very different behavior: it satisfies a dichotomy where every meta-class conforms to one of the following conditions: (i) either $m$ must grow inversely with the error, or (ii) a \emph{finite} number of examples per task suffices for the error to vanish as $n$ goes to infinity. This finding illustrates and characterizes cases in which a small number of examples per task is sufficient for successful learning. We further refine this for positive values of $\varepsilon$ and identify for each $\varepsilon$ how many examples per task are needed to achieve an error of $\varepsilon$ in the limit as the number of tasks $n$ goes to infinity. We achieve this by developing a necessary and sufficient condition for meta-learnability using a bounded number of examples per domain.

Omer Noy Klein, Alihan Hüyük, Ron Shamir et al.

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for evaluating the effect of new medical treatments. Treatments must pass stringent regulatory conditions in order to be approved for widespread use, yet even after the regulatory barriers are crossed, real-world challenges might arise: Who should get the treatment? What is its true clinical utility? Are there discrepancies in the treatment effectiveness across diverse and under-served populations? We introduce two new objectives for future clinical trials that integrate regulatory constraints and treatment policy value for both the entire population and under-served populations, thus answering some of the questions above in advance. Designed to meet these objectives, we formulate Randomize First Augment Next (RFAN), a new framework for designing Phase III clinical trials. Our framework consists of a standard randomized component followed by an adaptive one, jointly meant to efficiently and safely acquire and assign patients into treatment arms during the trial. Then, we propose strategies for implementing RFAN based on causal, deep Bayesian active learning. Finally, we empirically evaluate the performance of our framework using synthetic and real-world semi-synthetic datasets.

Tomer Meir, Ori Linial, Danny Eytan et al.

Estimating intervention effects in dynamical systems is crucial for outcome optimization. In medicine, such interventions arise in physiological regulation (e.g., cardiovascular system under fluid administration) and pharmacokinetics, among others. Propofol administration is an anesthetic intervention, where the challenge is to estimate the optimal dose required to achieve a target brain concentration for anesthesia, given patient characteristics, while avoiding under- or over-dosing. The pharmacokinetic state is characterized by drug concentrations across tissues, and its dynamics are governed by prior states, patient covariates, drug clearance, and drug administration. While data-driven models can capture complex dynamics, they often fail in out-of-distribution (OOD) regimes. Mechanistic models on the other hand are typically robust, but might be oversimplified. We propose a hybrid mechanistic-data-driven approach to estimate time-dependent intervention outcomes. Our approach decomposes the dynamical system's transition operator into parametric and nonparametric components, further distinguishing between intervention-related and unrelated dynamics. This structure leverages mechanistic anchors while learning residual patterns from data. For scenarios where mechanistic parameters are unknown, we introduce a two-stage procedure: first, pre-training an encoder on simulated data, and subsequently learning corrections from observed data. Two regimes with incomplete mechanistic knowledge are considered: periodic pendulum and Propofol bolus injections. Results demonstrate that our hybrid approach outperforms purely data-driven and mechanistic approaches, particularly OOD. This work highlights the potential of hybrid mechanistic-data-driven models for robust intervention optimization in complex, real-world dynamical systems.

Rom Gutman, Shimon Sheiba, Omer Noy Klein et al.

We propose a framework for building patient-specific treatment recommendation models, building on the large recent literature on learning patient-level causal models and inspired by the target trial paradigm of Hernan and Robins. We focus on safety and validity, including the crucial issue of causal identification when using observational data. We do not provide a specific model, but rather a way to integrate existing methods and know-how into a practical pipeline. We further provide a real world use-case of treatment optimization for patients with heart failure who develop acute kidney injury during hospitalization. The results suggest our pipeline can improve patient outcomes over the current treatment regime.

Ron Tsibulsky, Daniel Nevo, Uri Shalit

Despite the impressive advancements in modern machine learning, achieving robustness in Domain Generalization (DG) tasks remains a significant challenge. In DG, models are expected to perform well on samples from unseen test distributions (also called domains), by learning from multiple related training distributions. Most existing approaches to this problem rely on single-valued predictions, which inherently limit their robustness. We argue that set-valued predictors could be leveraged to enhance robustness across unseen domains, while also taking into account that these sets should be as small as possible. We introduce a theoretical framework defining successful set prediction in the DG setting, focusing on meeting a predefined performance criterion across as many domains as possible, and provide theoretical insights into the conditions under which such domain generalization is achievable. We further propose a practical optimization method compatible with modern learning architectures, that balances robust performance on unseen domains with small prediction set sizes. We evaluate our approach on several real-world datasets from the WILDS benchmark, demonstrating its potential as a promising direction for robust domain generalization.

Tomer Meir, Uri Shalit, Malka Gorfine

Tailoring treatments to individual needs is a central goal in fields such as medicine. A key step toward this goal is estimating Heterogeneous Treatment Effects (HTE) - the way treatments impact different subgroups. While crucial, HTE estimation is challenging with survival data, where time until an event (e.g., death) is key. Existing methods often assume complete observation, an assumption violated in survival data due to right-censoring, leading to bias and inefficiency. Cui et al. (2023) proposed a doubly-robust method for HTE estimation in survival data under no hidden confounders, combining a causal survival forest with an augmented inverse-censoring weighting estimator. However, we find it struggles under heavy censoring, which is common in rare-outcome problems such as Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Moreover, most current methods cannot handle instrumental variables, which are a crucial tool in the causal inference arsenal. We introduce Multiple Imputation for Survival Treatment Response (MISTR), a novel, general, and non-parametric method for estimating HTE in survival data. MISTR uses recursively imputed survival trees to handle censoring without directly modeling the censoring mechanism. Through extensive simulations and analysis of two real-world datasets-the AIDS Clinical Trials Group Protocol 175 and the Illinois unemployment dataset we show that MISTR outperforms prior methods under heavy censoring in the no-hidden-confounders setting, and extends to the instrumental variable setting. To our knowledge, MISTR is the first non-parametric approach for HTE estimation with unobserved confounders via instrumental variables.

Ori Linial, Guy Tennenholtz, Uri Shalit

In many reinforcement learning (RL) applications one cannot easily let the agent act in the world; this is true for autonomous vehicles, healthcare applications, and even some recommender systems, to name a few examples. Offline RL provides a way to train agents without real-world exploration, but is often faced with biases due to data distribution shifts, limited coverage, and incomplete representation of the environment. To address these issues, practical applications have tried to combine simulators with grounded offline data, using so-called hybrid methods. However, constructing a reliable simulator is in itself often challenging due to intricate system complexities as well as missing or incomplete information. In this work, we outline four principal challenges for combining offline data with imperfect simulators in RL: simulator modeling error, partial observability, state and action discrepancies, and hidden confounding. To help drive the RL community to pursue these problems, we construct ``Benchmarks for Mechanistic Offline Reinforcement Learning'' (B4MRL), which provide dataset-simulator benchmarks for the aforementioned challenges. Our results suggest the key necessity of such benchmarks for future research.

Bar Eini Porat, Danny Eytan, Uri Shalit

Vital signs are crucial in intensive care units (ICUs). They are used to track the patient's state and to identify clinically significant changes. Predicting vital sign trajectories is valuable for early detection of adverse events. However, conventional machine learning metrics like RMSE often fail to capture the true clinical relevance of such predictions. We introduce novel vital sign prediction performance metrics that align with clinical contexts, focusing on deviations from clinical norms, overall trends, and trend deviations. These metrics are derived from empirical utility curves obtained in a previous study through interviews with ICU clinicians. We validate the metrics' usefulness using simulated and real clinical datasets (MIMIC and eICU). Furthermore, we employ these metrics as loss functions for neural networks, resulting in models that excel in predicting clinically significant events. This research paves the way for clinically relevant machine learning model evaluation and optimization, promising to improve ICU patient care. 10 pages, 9 figures.

Andrew Jesson, Panagiotis Tigas, Joost van Amersfoort et al.

Estimating personalized treatment effects from high-dimensional observational data is essential in situations where experimental designs are infeasible, unethical, or expensive. Existing approaches rely on fitting deep models on outcomes observed for treated and control populations. However, when measuring individual outcomes is costly, as is the case of a tumor biopsy, a sample-efficient strategy for acquiring each result is required. Deep Bayesian active learning provides a framework for efficient data acquisition by selecting points with high uncertainty. However, existing methods bias training data acquisition towards regions of non-overlapping support between the treated and control populations. These are not sample-efficient because the treatment effect is not identifiable in such regions. We introduce causal, Bayesian acquisition functions grounded in information theory that bias data acquisition towards regions with overlapping support to maximize sample efficiency for learning personalized treatment effects. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed acquisition strategies on synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets IHDP and CMNIST and their extensions, which aim to simulate common dataset biases and pathologies.

Guy Tennenholtz, Assaf Hallak, Gal Dalal et al.

We consider the problem of using expert data with unobserved confounders for imitation and reinforcement learning. We begin by defining the problem of learning from confounded expert data in a contextual MDP setup. We analyze the limitations of learning from such data with and without external reward, and propose an adjustment of standard imitation learning algorithms to fit this setup. We then discuss the problem of distribution shift between the expert data and the online environment when the data is only partially observable. We prove possibility and impossibility results for imitation learning under arbitrary distribution shift of the missing covariates. When additional external reward is provided, we propose a sampling procedure that addresses the unknown shift and prove convergence to an optimal solution. Finally, we validate our claims empirically on challenging assistive healthcare and recommender system simulation tasks.

Andrew Jesson, Sören Mindermann, Yarin Gal et al.

We study the problem of learning conditional average treatment effects (CATE) from high-dimensional, observational data with unobserved confounders. Unobserved confounders introduce ignorance -- a level of unidentifiability -- about an individual's response to treatment by inducing bias in CATE estimates. We present a new parametric interval estimator suited for high-dimensional data, that estimates a range of possible CATE values when given a predefined bound on the level of hidden confounding. Further, previous interval estimators do not account for ignorance about the CATE associated with samples that may be underrepresented in the original study, or samples that violate the overlap assumption. Our interval estimator also incorporates model uncertainty so that practitioners can be made aware of out-of-distribution data. We prove that our estimator converges to tight bounds on CATE when there may be unobserved confounding, and assess it using semi-synthetic, high-dimensional datasets.

Yoav Wald, Amir Feder, Daniel Greenfeld et al.

Out-of-domain (OOD) generalization is a significant challenge for machine learning models. Many techniques have been proposed to overcome this challenge, often focused on learning models with certain invariance properties. In this work, we draw a link between OOD performance and model calibration, arguing that calibration across multiple domains can be viewed as a special case of an invariant representation leading to better OOD generalization. Specifically, we show that under certain conditions, models which achieve \emph{multi-domain calibration} are provably free of spurious correlations. This leads us to propose multi-domain calibration as a measurable and trainable surrogate for the OOD performance of a classifier. We therefore introduce methods that are easy to apply and allow practitioners to improve multi-domain calibration by training or modifying an existing model, leading to better performance on unseen domains. Using four datasets from the recently proposed WILDS OOD benchmark, as well as the Colored MNIST dataset, we demonstrate that training or tuning models so they are calibrated across multiple domains leads to significantly improved performance on unseen test domains. We believe this intriguing connection between calibration and OOD generalization is promising from both a practical and theoretical point of view.

Junhyung Park, Uri Shalit, Bernhard Schölkopf et al.

We propose to analyse the conditional distributional treatment effect (CoDiTE), which, in contrast to the more common conditional average treatment effect (CATE), is designed to encode a treatment's distributional aspects beyond the mean. We first introduce a formal definition of the CoDiTE associated with a distance function between probability measures. Then we discuss the CoDiTE associated with the maximum mean discrepancy via kernel conditional mean embeddings, which, coupled with a hypothesis test, tells us whether there is any conditional distributional effect of the treatment. Finally, we investigate what kind of conditional distributional effect the treatment has, both in an exploratory manner via the conditional witness function, and in a quantitative manner via U-statistic regression, generalising the CATE to higher-order moments. Experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic and real datasets demonstrate the merits of our approach.

Tom Beer, Bar Eini-Porat, Sebastian Goodfellow et al.

Deep neural networks (DNN) have shown remarkable success in the classification of physiological signals. In this study we propose a method for examining to what extent does a DNN's performance rely on rediscovering existing features of the signals, as opposed to discovering genuinely new features. Moreover, we offer a novel method of "removing" a hand-engineered feature from the network's hypothesis space, thus forcing it to try and learn representations which are different from known ones, as a method of scientific exploration. We then build on existing work in the field of interpretability, specifically class activation maps, to try and infer what new features the network has learned. We demonstrate this approach using ECG and EEG signals. With respect to ECG signals we show that for the specific task of classifying atrial fibrillation, DNNs are likely rediscovering known features. We also show how our method could be used to discover new features, by selectively removing some ECG features and "rediscovering" them. We further examine how could our method be used as a tool for examining scientific hypotheses. We simulate this scenario by looking into the importance of eye movements in classifying sleep from EEG. We show that our tool can successfully focus a researcher's attention by bringing to light patterns in the data that would be hidden otherwise.

Andrew Jesson, Sören Mindermann, Uri Shalit et al.

Recommending the best course of action for an individual is a major application of individual-level causal effect estimation. This application is often needed in safety-critical domains such as healthcare, where estimating and communicating uncertainty to decision-makers is crucial. We introduce a practical approach for integrating uncertainty estimation into a class of state-of-the-art neural network methods used for individual-level causal estimates. We show that our methods enable us to deal gracefully with situations of "no-overlap", common in high-dimensional data, where standard applications of causal effect approaches fail. Further, our methods allow us to handle covariate shift, where test distribution differs to train distribution, common when systems are deployed in practice. We show that when such a covariate shift occurs, correctly modeling uncertainty can keep us from giving overconfident and potentially harmful recommendations. We demonstrate our methodology with a range of state-of-the-art models. Under both covariate shift and lack of overlap, our uncertainty-equipped methods can alert decisions makers when predictions are not to be trusted while outperforming their uncertainty-oblivious counterparts.

Yuval Atzmon, Felix Kreuk, Uri Shalit et al.

People easily recognize new visual categories that are new combinations of known components. This compositional generalization capacity is critical for learning in real-world domains like vision and language because the long tail of new combinations dominates the distribution. Unfortunately, learning systems struggle with compositional generalization because they often build on features that are correlated with class labels even if they are not "essential" for the class. This leads to consistent misclassification of samples from a new distribution, like new combinations of known components. Here we describe an approach for compositional generalization that builds on causal ideas. First, we describe compositional zero-shot learning from a causal perspective, and propose to view zero-shot inference as finding "which intervention caused the image?". Second, we present a causal-inspired embedding model that learns disentangled representations of elementary components of visual objects from correlated (confounded) training data. We evaluate this approach on two datasets for predicting new combinations of attribute-object pairs: A well-controlled synthesized images dataset and a real-world dataset which consists of fine-grained types of shoes. We show improvements compared to strong baselines.

Guy Tennenholtz, Uri Shalit, Shie Mannor et al.

We study linear contextual bandits with access to a large, confounded, offline dataset that was sampled from some fixed policy. We show that this problem is closely related to a variant of the bandit problem with side information. We construct a linear bandit algorithm that takes advantage of the projected information, and prove regret bounds. Our results demonstrate the ability to take advantage of confounded offline data. Particularly, we prove regret bounds that improve current bounds by a factor related to the visible dimensionality of the contexts in the data. Our results indicate that confounded offline data can significantly improve online learning algorithms. Finally, we demonstrate various characteristics of our approach through synthetic simulations.

Amir Feder, Nadav Oved, Uri Shalit et al.

Understanding predictions made by deep neural networks is notoriously difficult, but also crucial to their dissemination. As all machine learning based methods, they are as good as their training data, and can also capture unwanted biases. While there are tools that can help understand whether such biases exist, they do not distinguish between correlation and causation, and might be ill-suited for text-based models and for reasoning about high level language concepts. A key problem of estimating the causal effect of a concept of interest on a given model is that this estimation requires the generation of counterfactual examples, which is challenging with existing generation technology. To bridge that gap, we propose CausaLM, a framework for producing causal model explanations using counterfactual language representation models. Our approach is based on fine-tuning of deep contextualized embedding models with auxiliary adversarial tasks derived from the causal graph of the problem. Concretely, we show that by carefully choosing auxiliary adversarial pre-training tasks, language representation models such as BERT can effectively learn a counterfactual representation for a given concept of interest, and be used to estimate its true causal effect on model performance. A byproduct of our method is a language representation model that is unaffected by the tested concept, which can be useful in mitigating unwanted bias ingrained in the data.

Ori Linial, Neta Ravid, Danny Eytan et al.

In several crucial applications, domain knowledge is encoded by a system of ordinary differential equations (ODE), often stemming from underlying physical and biological processes. A motivating example is intensive care unit patients: the dynamics of vital physiological functions, such as the cardiovascular system with its associated variables (heart rate, cardiac contractility and output and vascular resistance) can be approximately described by a known system of ODEs. Typically, some of the ODE variables are directly observed (heart rate and blood pressure for example) while some are unobserved (cardiac contractility, output and vascular resistance), and in addition many other variables are observed but not modeled by the ODE, for example body temperature. Importantly, the unobserved ODE variables are known-unknowns: We know they exist and their functional dynamics, but cannot measure them directly, nor do we know the function tying them to all observed measurements. As is often the case in medicine, and specifically the cardiovascular system, estimating these known-unknowns is highly valuable and they serve as targets for therapeutic manipulations. Under this scenario we wish to learn the parameters of the ODE generating each observed time-series, and extrapolate the future of the ODE variables and the observations. We address this task with a variational autoencoder incorporating the known ODE function, called GOKU-net for Generative ODE modeling with Known Unknowns. We first validate our method on videos of single and double pendulums with unknown length or mass; we then apply it to a model of the cardiovascular system. We show that modeling the known-unknowns allows us to successfully discover clinically meaningful unobserved system parameters, leads to much better extrapolation, and enables learning using much smaller training sets.

Fredrik D. Johansson, Uri Shalit, Nathan Kallus et al.

Practitioners in diverse fields such as healthcare, economics and education are eager to apply machine learning to improve decision making. The cost and impracticality of performing experiments and a recent monumental increase in electronic record keeping has brought attention to the problem of evaluating decisions based on non-experimental observational data. This is the setting of this work. In particular, we study estimation of individual-level causal effects, such as a single patient's response to alternative medication, from recorded contexts, decisions and outcomes. We give generalization bounds on the error in estimated effects based on distance measures between groups receiving different treatments, allowing for sample re-weighting. We provide conditions under which our bound is tight and show how it relates to results for unsupervised domain adaptation. Led by our theoretical results, we devise representation learning algorithms that minimize our bound, by regularizing the representation's induced treatment group distance, and encourage sharing of information between treatment groups. We extend these algorithms to simultaneously learn a weighted representation to further reduce treatment group distances. Finally, an experimental evaluation on real and synthetic data shows the value of our proposed representation architecture and regularization scheme.

Daniel Greenfeld, Uri Shalit

We investigate the use of a non-parametric independence measure, the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC), as a loss-function for learning robust regression and classification models. This loss-function encourages learning models where the distribution of the residuals between the label and the model prediction is statistically independent of the distribution of the instances themselves. This loss-function was first proposed by Mooij et al. (2009) in the context of learning causal graphs. We adapt it to the task of learning for unsupervised covariate shift: learning on a source domain without access to any instances or labels from the unknown target domain, but with the assumption that $p(y|x)$ (the conditional probability of labels given instances) remains the same in the target domain. We show that the proposed loss is expected to give rise to models that generalize well on a class of target domains characterised by the complexity of their description within a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. Experiments on unsupervised covariate shift tasks demonstrate that models learned with the proposed loss-function outperform models learned with standard loss functions, achieving state-of-the-art results on a challenging cell-microscopy unsupervised covariate shift task.

Guy Tennenholtz, Shie Mannor, Uri Shalit

This work studies the problem of batch off-policy evaluation for Reinforcement Learning in partially observable environments. Off-policy evaluation under partial observability is inherently prone to bias, with risk of arbitrarily large errors. We define the problem of off-policy evaluation for Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) and establish what we believe is the first off-policy evaluation result for POMDPs. In addition, we formulate a model in which observed and unobserved variables are decoupled into two dynamic processes, called a Decoupled POMDP. We show how off-policy evaluation can be performed under this new model, mitigating estimation errors inherent to general POMDPs. We demonstrate the pitfalls of off-policy evaluation in POMDPs using a well-known off-policy method, Importance Sampling, and compare it with our result on synthetic medical data.

Yash Goyal, Amir Feder, Uri Shalit et al.

How can we understand classification decisions made by deep neural networks? Many existing explainability methods rely solely on correlations and fail to account for confounding, which may result in potentially misleading explanations. To overcome this problem, we define the Causal Concept Effect (CaCE) as the causal effect of (the presence or absence of) a human-interpretable concept on a deep neural net's predictions. We show that the CaCE measure can avoid errors stemming from confounding. Estimating CaCE is difficult in situations where we cannot easily simulate the do-operator. To mitigate this problem, we use a generative model, specifically a Variational AutoEncoder (VAE), to measure VAE-CaCE. In an extensive experimental analysis, we show that the VAE-CaCE is able to estimate the true concept causal effect, compared to baselines for a number of datasets including high dimensional images.

Nathan Kallus, Aahlad Manas Puli, Uri Shalit

Observational data is increasingly used as a means for making individual-level causal predictions and intervention recommendations. The foremost challenge of causal inference from observational data is hidden confounding, whose presence cannot be tested in data and can invalidate any causal conclusion. Experimental data does not suffer from confounding but is usually limited in both scope and scale. We introduce a novel method of using limited experimental data to correct the hidden confounding in causal effect models trained on larger observational data, even if the observational data does not fully overlap with the experimental data. Our method makes strictly weaker assumptions than existing approaches, and we prove conditions under which it yields a consistent estimator. We demonstrate our method's efficacy using real-world data from a large educational experiment.

Fredrik D. Johansson, Nathan Kallus, Uri Shalit et al.

Predictive models that generalize well under distributional shift are often desirable and sometimes crucial to building robust and reliable machine learning applications. We focus on distributional shift that arises in causal inference from observational data and in unsupervised domain adaptation. We pose both of these problems as prediction under a shift in design. Popular methods for overcoming distributional shift make unrealistic assumptions such as having a well-specified model or knowing the policy that gave rise to the observed data. Other methods are hindered by their need for a pre-specified metric for comparing observations, or by poor asymptotic properties. We devise a bound on the generalization error under design shift, incorporating both representation learning and sample re-weighting. Based on the bound, we propose an algorithmic framework that does not require any of the above assumptions and which is asymptotically consistent. We empirically study the new framework using two synthetic datasets, and demonstrate its effectiveness compared to previous methods.

Vincent Dorie, Jennifer Hill, Uri Shalit et al.

Statisticians have made great progress in creating methods that reduce our reliance on parametric assumptions. However this explosion in research has resulted in a breadth of inferential strategies that both create opportunities for more reliable inference as well as complicate the choices that an applied researcher has to make and defend. Relatedly, researchers advocating for new methods typically compare their method to at best 2 or 3 other causal inference strategies and test using simulations that may or may not be designed to equally tease out flaws in all the competing methods. The causal inference data analysis challenge, "Is Your SATT Where It's At?", launched as part of the 2016 Atlantic Causal Inference Conference, sought to make progress with respect to both of these issues. The researchers creating the data testing grounds were distinct from the researchers submitting methods whose efficacy would be evaluated. Results from 30 competitors across the two versions of the competition (black box algorithms and do-it-yourself analyses) are presented along with post-hoc analyses that reveal information about the characteristics of causal inference strategies and settings that affect performance. The most consistent conclusion was that methods that flexibly model the response surface perform better overall than methods that fail to do so. Finally new methods are proposed that combine features of several of the top-performing submitted methods.

Christos Louizos, Uri Shalit, Joris Mooij et al.

Learning individual-level causal effects from observational data, such as inferring the most effective medication for a specific patient, is a problem of growing importance for policy makers. The most important aspect of inferring causal effects from observational data is the handling of confounders, factors that affect both an intervention and its outcome. A carefully designed observational study attempts to measure all important confounders. However, even if one does not have direct access to all confounders, there may exist noisy and uncertain measurement of proxies for confounders. We build on recent advances in latent variable modeling to simultaneously estimate the unknown latent space summarizing the confounders and the causal effect. Our method is based on Variational Autoencoders (VAE) which follow the causal structure of inference with proxies. We show our method is significantly more robust than existing methods, and matches the state-of-the-art on previous benchmarks focused on individual treatment effects.

Rahul G. Krishnan, Uri Shalit, David Sontag

Gaussian state space models have been used for decades as generative models of sequential data. They admit an intuitive probabilistic interpretation, have a simple functional form, and enjoy widespread adoption. We introduce a unified algorithm to efficiently learn a broad class of linear and non-linear state space models, including variants where the emission and transition distributions are modeled by deep neural networks. Our learning algorithm simultaneously learns a compiled inference network and the generative model, leveraging a structured variational approximation parameterized by recurrent neural networks to mimic the posterior distribution. We apply the learning algorithm to both synthetic and real-world datasets, demonstrating its scalability and versatility. We find that using the structured approximation to the posterior results in models with significantly higher held-out likelihood.

Uri Shalit, Fredrik D. Johansson, David Sontag

There is intense interest in applying machine learning to problems of causal inference in fields such as healthcare, economics and education. In particular, individual-level causal inference has important applications such as precision medicine. We give a new theoretical analysis and family of algorithms for predicting individual treatment effect (ITE) from observational data, under the assumption known as strong ignorability. The algorithms learn a "balanced" representation such that the induced treated and control distributions look similar. We give a novel, simple and intuitive generalization-error bound showing that the expected ITE estimation error of a representation is bounded by a sum of the standard generalization-error of that representation and the distance between the treated and control distributions induced by the representation. We use Integral Probability Metrics to measure distances between distributions, deriving explicit bounds for the Wasserstein and Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) distances. Experiments on real and simulated data show the new algorithms match or outperform the state-of-the-art.

Fredrik D. Johansson, Uri Shalit, David Sontag

Observational studies are rising in importance due to the widespread accumulation of data in fields such as healthcare, education, employment and ecology. We consider the task of answering counterfactual questions such as, "Would this patient have lower blood sugar had she received a different medication?". We propose a new algorithmic framework for counterfactual inference which brings together ideas from domain adaptation and representation learning. In addition to a theoretical justification, we perform an empirical comparison with previous approaches to causal inference from observational data. Our deep learning algorithm significantly outperforms the previous state-of-the-art.

Rahul G. Krishnan, Uri Shalit, David Sontag

Kalman Filters are one of the most influential models of time-varying phenomena. They admit an intuitive probabilistic interpretation, have a simple functional form, and enjoy widespread adoption in a variety of disciplines. Motivated by recent variational methods for learning deep generative models, we introduce a unified algorithm to efficiently learn a broad spectrum of Kalman filters. Of particular interest is the use of temporal generative models for counterfactual inference. We investigate the efficacy of such models for counterfactual inference, and to that end we introduce the "Healing MNIST" dataset where long-term structure, noise and actions are applied to sequences of digits. We show the efficacy of our method for modeling this dataset. We further show how our model can be used for counterfactual inference for patients, based on electronic health record data of 8,000 patients over 4.5 years.

Uri Shalit, Gal Chechik

Optimizing over the set of orthogonal matrices is a central component in problems like sparse-PCA or tensor decomposition. Unfortunately, such optimization is hard since simple operations on orthogonal matrices easily break orthogonality, and correcting orthogonality usually costs a large amount of computation. Here we propose a framework for optimizing orthogonal matrices, that is the parallel of coordinate-descent in Euclidean spaces. It is based on {\em Givens-rotations}, a fast-to-compute operation that affects a small number of entries in the learned matrix, and preserves orthogonality. We show two applications of this approach: an algorithm for tensor decomposition that is used in learning mixture models, and an algorithm for sparse-PCA. We study the parameter regime where a Givens rotation approach converges faster and achieves a superior model on a genome-wide brain-wide mRNA expression dataset.