Botond Szabo

Bernhard Stankewitz, Botond Szabo

Due to their flexibility and theoretical tractability Gaussian process (GP) regression models have become a central topic in modern statistics and machine learning. While the true posterior in these models is given explicitly, numerical evaluations depend on the inversion of the augmented kernel matrix $ K + σ^2 I $, which requires up to $ O(n^3) $ operations. For large sample sizes n, which are typically given in modern applications, this is computationally infeasible and necessitates the use of an approximate version of the posterior. Although such methods are widely used in practice, they typically have very limtied theoretical underpinning. In this context, we analyze a class of recently proposed approximation algorithms from the field of Probabilistic numerics. They can be interpreted in terms of Lanczos approximate eigenvectors of the kernel matrix or a conjugate gradient approximation of the posterior mean, which are particularly advantageous in truly large scale applications, as they are fundamentally only based on matrix vector multiplications amenable to the GPU acceleration of modern software frameworks. We combine result from the numerical analysis literature with state of the art concentration results for spectra of kernel matrices to obtain minimax contraction rates. Our theoretical findings are illustrated by numerical experiments.

Wouter van Loon, Frank de Vos, Marjolein Fokkema et al.

Multi-view data refers to a setting where features are divided into feature sets, for example because they correspond to different sources. Stacked penalized logistic regression (StaPLR) is a recently introduced method that can be used for classification and automatically selecting the views that are most important for prediction. We introduce an extension of this method to a setting where the data has a hierarchical multi-view structure. We also introduce a new view importance measure for StaPLR, which allows us to compare the importance of views at any level of the hierarchy. We apply our extended StaPLR algorithm to Alzheimer's disease classification where different MRI measures have been calculated from three scan types: structural MRI, diffusion-weighted MRI, and resting-state fMRI. StaPLR can identify which scan types and which derived MRI measures are most important for classification, and it outperforms elastic net regression in classification performance.

Botond Szabo, Lasse Vuursteen, Harry van Zanten

In this paper we study the problem of signal detection in Gaussian noise in a distributed setting where the local machines in the star topology can communicate a single bit of information. We derive a lower bound on the Euclidian norm that the signal needs to have in order to be detectable. Moreover, we exhibit optimal distributed testing strategies that attain the lower bound.

Wouter van Loon, Marjolein Fokkema, Botond Szabo et al.

Multi-view stacking is a framework for combining information from different views (i.e. different feature sets) describing the same set of objects. In this framework, a base-learner algorithm is trained on each view separately, and their predictions are then combined by a meta-learner algorithm. In a previous study, stacked penalized logistic regression, a special case of multi-view stacking, has been shown to be useful in identifying which views are most important for prediction. In this article we expand this research by considering seven different algorithms to use as the meta-learner, and evaluating their view selection and classification performance in simulations and two applications on real gene-expression data sets. Our results suggest that if both view selection and classification accuracy are important to the research at hand, then the nonnegative lasso, nonnegative adaptive lasso and nonnegative elastic net are suitable meta-learners. Exactly which among these three is to be preferred depends on the research context. The remaining four meta-learners, namely nonnegative ridge regression, nonnegative forward selection, stability selection and the interpolating predictor, show little advantages in order to be preferred over the other three.

Kolyan Ray, Botond Szabo, Gabriel Clara

Variational Bayes (VB) is a popular scalable alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian inference. We study a mean-field spike and slab VB approximation of widely used Bayesian model selection priors in sparse high-dimensional logistic regression. We provide non-asymptotic theoretical guarantees for the VB posterior in both $\ell_2$ and prediction loss for a sparse truth, giving optimal (minimax) convergence rates. Since the VB algorithm does not depend on the unknown truth to achieve optimality, our results shed light on effective prior choices. We confirm the improved performance of our VB algorithm over common sparse VB approaches in a numerical study.

Botond Szabo, Harry van Zanten

We investigate whether in a distributed setting, adaptive estimation of a smooth function at the optimal rate is possible under minimal communication. It turns out that the answer depends on the risk considered and on the number of servers over which the procedure is distributed. We show that for the $L_\infty$-risk, adaptively obtaining optimal rates under minimal communication is not possible. For the $L_2$-risk, it is possible over a range of regularities that depends on the relation between the number of local servers and the total sample size.

Kolyan Ray, Botond Szabo

Bayesian approaches have become increasingly popular in causal inference problems due to their conceptual simplicity, excellent performance and in-built uncertainty quantification ('posterior credible sets'). We investigate Bayesian inference for average treatment effects from observational data, which is a challenging problem due to the missing counterfactuals and selection bias. Working in the standard potential outcomes framework, we propose a data-driven modification to an arbitrary (nonparametric) prior based on the propensity score that corrects for the first-order posterior bias, thereby improving performance. We illustrate our method for Gaussian process (GP) priors using (semi-)synthetic data. Our experiments demonstrate significant improvement in both estimation accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to the unmodified GP, rendering our approach highly competitive with the state-of-the-art.

Kolyan Ray, Botond Szabo

We study a mean-field spike and slab variational Bayes (VB) approximation to Bayesian model selection priors in sparse high-dimensional linear regression. Under compatibility conditions on the design matrix, oracle inequalities are derived for the mean-field VB approximation, implying that it converges to the sparse truth at the optimal rate and gives optimal prediction of the response vector. The empirical performance of our algorithm is studied, showing that it works comparably well as other state-of-the-art Bayesian variable selection methods. We also numerically demonstrate that the widely used coordinate-ascent variational inference (CAVI) algorithm can be highly sensitive to the parameter updating order, leading to potentially poor performance. To mitigate this, we propose a novel prioritized updating scheme that uses a data-driven updating order and performs better in simulations. The variational algorithm is implemented in the R package 'sparsevb'.

Wouter van Loon, Marjolein Fokkema, Botond Szabo et al.

In biomedical research, many different types of patient data can be collected, such as various types of omics data and medical imaging modalities. Applying multi-view learning to these different sources of information can increase the accuracy of medical classification models compared with single-view procedures. However, collecting biomedical data can be expensive and/or burdening for patients, so that it is important to reduce the amount of required data collection. It is therefore necessary to develop multi-view learning methods which can accurately identify those views that are most important for prediction. In recent years, several biomedical studies have used an approach known as multi-view stacking (MVS), where a model is trained on each view separately and the resulting predictions are combined through stacking. In these studies, MVS has been shown to increase classification accuracy. However, the MVS framework can also be used for selecting a subset of important views. To study the view selection potential of MVS, we develop a special case called stacked penalized logistic regression (StaPLR). Compared with existing view-selection methods, StaPLR can make use of faster optimization algorithms and is easily parallelized. We show that nonnegativity constraints on the parameters of the function which combines the views play an important role in preventing unimportant views from entering the model. We investigate the performance of StaPLR through simulations, and consider two real data examples. We compare the performance of StaPLR with an existing view selection method called the group lasso and observe that, in terms of view selection, StaPLR is often more conservative and has a consistently lower false positive rate.

Botond Szabo, Harry van Zanten

We study distributed estimation methods under communication constraints in a distributed version of the nonparametric random design regression model. We derive minimax lower bounds and exhibit methods that attain those bounds. Moreover, we show that adaptive estimation is possible in this setting.

Botond Szabo, Harry van Zanten

We investigate and compare the fundamental performance of several distributed learning methods that have been proposed recently. We do this in the context of a distributed version of the classical signal-in-Gaussian-white-noise model, which serves as a benchmark model for studying performance in this setting. The results show how the design and tuning of a distributed method can have great impact on convergence rates and validity of uncertainty quantification. Moreover, we highlight the difficulty of designing nonparametric distributed procedures that automatically adapt to smoothness.