Beckett Sterner

Bright Kwaku Manu, Trevor Reckell, Beckett Sterner et al.

Stochastic Petri Nets (SPNs) are an increasingly popular tool of choice for modeling discrete-event dynamics in areas such as epidemiology and systems biology, yet their parameter estimation remains challenging in general and in particular when transition rates depend on external covariates and explicit likelihoods are unavailable. We introduce a neural-surrogate (neural-network--based approximation of the posterior distribution) framework that predicts the coefficients of known covariate-dependent rate functions directly from noisy, partially observed token trajectories. Our model employs a lightweight 1D Convolutional Residual Network trained end-to-end on Gillespie-simulated SPN realizations, learning to invert system dynamics under realistic conditions of event dropout. During inference, Monte Carlo dropout provides calibrated uncertainty bounds together with point estimates. On synthetic SPNs with 20% missing events, our surrogate recovers rate-function coefficients with an RMSE = 0.108 and substantially runs faster than traditional Bayesian approaches. These results demonstrate that data-driven, likelihood-free surrogates can enable accurate, robust, and real-time parameter recovery in complex, partially observed discrete-event systems.

Ali Sarabi, Arash Sarabi, Hao Yan et al.

Coccidioidomycosis, commonly known as Valley Fever, remains a significant public health concern in endemic regions of the southwestern United States. This study develops the first graph neural network (GNN) model for forecasting Valley Fever incidence in Arizona. The model integrates surveillance case data with environmental predictors using graph structures, including soil conditions, atmospheric variables, agricultural indicators, and air quality metrics. Our approach explores correlation-based relationships among variables influencing disease transmission. The model captures critical delays in disease progression through lagged effects, enhancing its capacity to reflect complex temporal dependencies in disease ecology. Results demonstrate that the GNN architecture effectively models Valley Fever trends and provides insights into key environmental drivers of disease incidence. These findings can inform early warning systems and guide resource allocation for disease prevention efforts in high-risk areas.

Rasha Alshawi, Atriya Sen, Nathan S. Upham et al.

We describe a novel dataset for the automated recognition of named taxonomic and other entities relevant to the association of viruses with their hosts. We further describe some initial results using pre-trained models on the named-entity recognition (NER) task on this novel dataset. We propose that our dataset of manually annotated abstracts now offers a Gold Standard Corpus for training future NER models in the automated extraction of host-pathogen detection methods from scientific publications, and further explain how our work makes first steps towards predicting the important human health-related concept of viral spillover risk automatically from the scientific literature.