Chao Qin

Chao Qin, Daniel Russo

Practitioners conducting adaptive experiments often encounter two competing priorities: maximizing total welfare (or `reward') through effective treatment assignment and swiftly concluding experiments to implement population-wide treatments. Current literature addresses these priorities separately, with regret minimization studies focusing on the former and best-arm identification research on the latter. This paper bridges this divide by proposing a unified model that simultaneously accounts for within-experiment performance and post-experiment outcomes. We provide a sharp theory of optimal performance in large populations that not only unifies canonical results in the literature but also uncovers novel insights. Our theory reveals that familiar algorithms, such as the recently proposed top-two Thompson sampling algorithm, can optimize a broad class of objectives if a single scalar parameter is appropriately adjusted. In addition, we demonstrate that substantial reductions in experiment duration can often be achieved with minimal impact on both within-experiment and post-experiment regret.

Junpei Komiyama, Kaito Ariu, Masahiro Kato et al.

We consider best arm identification in the multi-armed bandit problem. Assuming certain continuity conditions of the prior, we characterize the rate of the Bayesian simple regret. Differing from Bayesian regret minimization (Lai, 1987), the leading term in the Bayesian simple regret derives from the region where the gap between optimal and suboptimal arms is smaller than $\sqrt{\frac{\log T}{T}}$. We propose a simple and easy-to-compute algorithm with its leading term matching with the lower bound up to a constant factor; simulation results support our theoretical findings.

Kaito Ariu, Masahiro Kato, Junpei Komiyama et al.

We consider the "policy choice" problem -- otherwise known as best arm identification in the bandit literature -- proposed by Kasy and Sautmann (2021) for adaptive experimental design. Theorem 1 of Kasy and Sautmann (2021) provides three asymptotic results that give theoretical guarantees for exploration sampling developed for this setting. We first show that the proof of Theorem 1 (1) has technical issues, and the proof and statement of Theorem 1 (2) are incorrect. We then show, through a counterexample, that Theorem 1 (3) is false. For the former two, we correct the statements and provide rigorous proofs. For Theorem 1 (3), we propose an alternative objective function, which we call posterior weighted policy regret, and derive the asymptotic optimality of exploration sampling.

Chao Ying Qin, Marios Constantinides, Luca Maria Aiello et al.

Affective sharing within groups strengthens coordination and empathy, leads to better health outcomes, and increases productivity and performance. Existing tools for affective sharing face one main challenge: creating a representation of collective emotional states that is relatable and universally accessible. To overcome this challenge, we propose HeartBees, a bio-feedback system for visualizing collective emotional states, which maps a multi-dimensional emotion model into a metaphorical visualization of flocks of birds. Grounded on Affective Computing literature and physiological sensing, we mapped physiological indicators that could be obtained from wearable devices into a multi-dimensional emotion model, which, in turn, our HeartBees can make use of. We evaluated our nature-inspired interactive system with 353 online participants, whose responses showed good consensus in the way they subjectively perceived the visualizations. Last, we discuss practical applications of HeartBees.

Chao Qin, Diego Klabjan, Daniel Russo

The expected improvement (EI) algorithm is a popular strategy for information collection in optimization under uncertainty. The algorithm is widely known to be too greedy, but nevertheless enjoys wide use due to its simplicity and ability to handle uncertainty and noise in a coherent decision theoretic framework. To provide rigorous insight into EI, we study its properties in a simple setting of Bayesian optimization where the domain consists of a finite grid of points. This is the so-called best-arm identification problem, where the goal is to allocate measurement effort wisely to confidently identify the best arm using a small number of measurements. In this framework, one can show formally that EI is far from optimal. To overcome this shortcoming, we introduce a simple modification of the expected improvement algorithm. Surprisingly, this simple change results in an algorithm that is asymptotically optimal for Gaussian best-arm identification problems, and provably outperforms standard EI by an order of magnitude.