Kefeng Deng

Wuxin Wang, Weicheng Ni, Lilan Huang et al.

Recent advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) demonstrate significant potential to revolutionize weather forecasting. However, most AI-driven models rely on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems for initial condition preparation, which often consumes hours on supercomputers. Here we introduce XiChen, the first observation-scalable fully AI-driven global weather forecasting system, whose entire pipeline, from Data Assimilation (DA) to medium-range forecasting, can be accomplished within only 17 seconds. XiChen is built upon a foundation model that is pre-trained for weather forecasting. Meanwhile, this model is subsequently fine-tuned to serve as both observation operators and DA models, thereby scalably assimilating conventional and raw satellite observations. Furthermore, the integration of four-dimensional variational knowledge ensures that XiChen's DA and medium-range forecasting accuracy rivals that of operational NWP systems, amazingly achieving a skillful forecasting lead time exceeding 8.25 days. These findings demonstrate that XiChen holds strong potential toward fully AI-driven weather forecasting independent of NWP systems.

Jingnan Wang, Jie Chao, Shangshang Yang et al.

The planning and operation of renewable energy, especially wind power, depend crucially on accurate, timely, and high-resolution weather information. Coarse-grid global numerical weather forecasts are typically downscaled to meet these requirements, introducing challenges of scale inconsistency, process representation error, computation cost, and entanglement of distinct uncertainty sources from chaoticity, model bias, and large-scale forcing. We address these challenges by learning the climatological distribution of a target wind farm using its high-resolution numerical weather simulations. An optimal combination of this learned high-resolution climatological prior with coarse-grid large scale forecasts yields highly accurate, fine-grained, full-variable, large ensemble of weather pattern forecasts. Using observed meteorological records and wind turbine power outputs as references, the proposed methodology verifies advantageously compared to existing numerical/statistical forecasting-downscaling pipelines, regarding either deterministic/probabilistic skills or economic gains. Moreover, a 100-member, 10-day forecast with spatial resolution of 1 km and output frequency of 15 min takes < 1 hour on a moderate-end GPU, as contrast to $\mathcal{O}(10^3)$ CPU hours for conventional numerical simulation. By drastically reducing computational costs while maintaining accuracy, our method paves the way for more efficient and reliable renewable energy planning and operation.

Yifan Hu, Fukang Yin, Weimin Zhang et al.

Long-term stability stands as a crucial requirement in data-driven medium-range global weather forecasting. Spectral bias is recognized as the primary contributor to instabilities, as data-driven methods difficult to learn small-scale dynamics. In this paper, we reveal that the universal mechanism for these instabilities is not only related to spectral bias but also to distortions brought by processing spherical data using conventional convolution. These distortions lead to a rapid amplification of errors over successive long-term iterations, resulting in a significant decline in forecast accuracy. To address this issue, a universal neural operator called the Spherical Harmonic Neural Operator (SHNO) is introduced to improve long-term iterative forecasts. SHNO uses the spherical harmonic basis to mitigate distortions for spherical data and uses gated residual spectral attention (GRSA) to correct spectral bias caused by spurious correlations across different scales. The effectiveness and merit of the proposed method have been validated through its application for spherical Shallow Water Equations (SWEs) and medium-range global weather forecasting. Our findings highlight the benefits and potential of SHNO to improve the accuracy of long-term prediction.

Runshi Liu, Pengda Qin, Yuhong Li et al.

E-commerce companies have to face abnormal sellers who sell potentially-risky products. Typically, the risk can be identified by jointly considering product content (e.g., title and image) and seller behavior. This work focuses on behavior feature extraction as behavior sequences can provide valuable clues for the risk discovery by reflecting the sellers' operation habits. Traditional feature extraction techniques heavily depend on domain experts and adapt poorly to new tasks. In this paper, we propose a self-supervised method InfoBehavior to automatically extract meaningful representations from ultra-long raw behavior sequences instead of the costly feature selection procedure. InfoBehavior utilizes Bidirectional Transformer as feature encoder due to its excellent capability in modeling long-term dependency. However, it is intractable for commodity GPUs because the time and memory required by Transformer grow quadratically with the increase of sequence length. Thus, we propose a hierarchical grouping strategy to aggregate ultra-long raw behavior sequences to length-processable high-level embedding sequences. Moreover, we introduce two types of pretext tasks. Sequence-related pretext task defines a contrastive-based training objective to correctly select the masked-out coarse-grained/fine-grained behavior sequences against other "distractor" behavior sequences; Domain-related pretext task designs a classification training objective to correctly predict the domain-specific statistical results of anomalous behavior. We show that behavior representations from the pre-trained InfoBehavior can be directly used or integrated with features from other side information to support a wide range of downstream tasks. Experimental results demonstrate that InfoBehavior significantly improves the performance of Product Risk Management and Intellectual Property Protection.

Pengda Qin, Yuhong Li, Kefeng Deng et al.

Among ubiquitous multimodal data in the real world, text is the modality generated by human, while image reflects the physical world honestly. In a visual understanding application, machines are expected to understand images like human. Inspired by this, we propose a novel self-supervised learning method, named Text-enhanced Visual Deep InfoMax (TVDIM), to learn better visual representations by fully utilizing the naturally-existing multimodal data. Our core idea of self-supervised learning is to maximize the mutual information between features extracted from multiple views of a shared context to a rational degree. Different from previous methods which only consider multiple views from a single modality, our work produces multiple views from different modalities, and jointly optimizes the mutual information for features pairs of intra-modality and inter-modality. Considering the information gap between inter-modality features pairs from data noise, we adopt a \emph{ranking-based} contrastive learning to optimize the mutual information. During evaluation, we directly use the pre-trained visual representations to complete various image classification tasks. Experimental results show that, TVDIM significantly outperforms previous visual self-supervised methods when processing the same set of images.