Alan Jeffares

Nabeel Seedat, Alan Jeffares, Fergus Imrie et al.

Conformal prediction is a powerful distribution-free tool for uncertainty quantification, establishing valid prediction intervals with finite-sample guarantees. To produce valid intervals which are also adaptive to the difficulty of each instance, a common approach is to compute normalized nonconformity scores on a separate calibration set. Self-supervised learning has been effectively utilized in many domains to learn general representations for downstream predictors. However, the use of self-supervision beyond model pretraining and representation learning has been largely unexplored. In this work, we investigate how self-supervised pretext tasks can improve the quality of the conformal regressors, specifically by improving the adaptability of conformal intervals. We train an auxiliary model with a self-supervised pretext task on top of an existing predictive model and use the self-supervised error as an additional feature to estimate nonconformity scores. We empirically demonstrate the benefit of the additional information using both synthetic and real data on the efficiency (width), deficit, and excess of conformal prediction intervals.

Alan Jeffares, Liyuan Liu

Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) are well-established as a principled approach to probabilistic unsupervised learning with neural networks. Typically, an encoder network defines the parameters of a Gaussian distributed latent space from which we can sample and pass realizations to a decoder network. This model is trained to reconstruct its inputs and is optimized through the evidence lower bound. In recent years, discrete latent spaces have grown in popularity, suggesting that they may be a natural choice for many data modalities (e.g. text). In this tutorial, we provide a rigorous, yet practical, introduction to discrete variational autoencoders -- specifically, VAEs in which the latent space is made up of latent variables that follow a categorical distribution. We assume only a basic mathematical background with which we carefully derive each step from first principles. From there, we develop a concrete training recipe and provide an example implementation, hosted at https://github.com/alanjeffares/discreteVAE.

Alan Jeffares, Alicia Curth, Mihaela van der Schaar

Deep learning sometimes appears to work in unexpected ways. In pursuit of a deeper understanding of its surprising behaviors, we investigate the utility of a simple yet accurate model of a trained neural network consisting of a sequence of first-order approximations telescoping out into a single empirically operational tool for practical analysis. Across three case studies, we illustrate how it can be applied to derive new empirical insights on a diverse range of prominent phenomena in the literature -- including double descent, grokking, linear mode connectivity, and the challenges of applying deep learning on tabular data -- highlighting that this model allows us to construct and extract metrics that help predict and understand the a priori unexpected performance of neural networks. We also demonstrate that this model presents a pedagogical formalism allowing us to isolate components of the training process even in complex contemporary settings, providing a lens to reason about the effects of design choices such as architecture & optimization strategy, and reveals surprising parallels between neural network learning and gradient boosting.

Alan Jeffares, Mihaela van der Schaar

Developing a better understanding of surprising or counterintuitive phenomena has constituted a significant portion of deep learning research in recent years. These include double descent, grokking, and the lottery ticket hypothesis -- among many others. Works in this area often develop ad hoc hypotheses attempting to explain these observed phenomena on an isolated, case-by-case basis. This position paper asserts that, in many prominent cases, there is little evidence to suggest that these phenomena appear in real-world applications and these efforts may be inefficient in driving progress in the broader field. Consequently, we argue against viewing them as isolated puzzles that require bespoke resolutions or explanations. However, despite this, we suggest that deep learning phenomena do still offer research value by providing unique settings in which we can refine our broad explanatory theories of more general deep learning principles. This position is reinforced by analyzing the research outcomes of several prominent examples of these phenomena from the recent literature. We revisit the current norms in the research community in approaching these problems and propose practical recommendations for future research, aiming to ensure that progress on deep learning phenomena is well aligned with the ultimate pragmatic goal of progress in the broader field of deep learning.