Yukai Liu

Shengchen Zhu, Yiming Chen, Peiying Yu et al.

Accurate weather forecasting is essential for understanding and mitigating weather-related impacts. In this paper, we present PuYun, an autoregressive cascade model that leverages large kernel attention convolutional networks. The model's design inherently supports extended weather prediction horizons while broadening the effective receptive field. The integration of large kernel attention mechanisms within the convolutional layers enhances the model's capacity to capture fine-grained spatial details, thereby improving its predictive accuracy for meteorological phenomena. We introduce PuYun, comprising PuYun-Short for 0-5 day forecasts and PuYun-Medium for 5-10 day predictions. This approach enhances the accuracy of 10-day weather forecasting. Through evaluation, we demonstrate that PuYun-Short alone surpasses the performance of both GraphCast and FuXi-Short in generating accurate 10-day forecasts. Specifically, on the 10th day, PuYun-Short reduces the RMSE for Z500 to 720 $m^2/s^2$, compared to 732 $m^2/s^2$ for GraphCast and 740 $m^2/s^2$ for FuXi-Short. Additionally, the RMSE for T2M is reduced to 2.60 K, compared to 2.63 K for GraphCast and 2.65 K for FuXi-Short. Furthermore, when employing a cascaded approach by integrating PuYun-Short and PuYun-Medium, our method achieves superior results compared to the combined performance of FuXi-Short and FuXi-Medium. On the 10th day, the RMSE for Z500 is further reduced to 638 $m^2/s^2$, compared to 641 $m^2/s^2$ for FuXi. These findings underscore the effectiveness of our model ensemble in advancing medium-range weather prediction. Our training code and model will be open-sourced.

Zhishuai Zhang, Jiyang Gao, Junhua Mao et al.

Detecting pedestrians and predicting future trajectories for them are critical tasks for numerous applications, such as autonomous driving. Previous methods either treat the detection and prediction as separate tasks or simply add a trajectory regression head on top of a detector. In this work, we present a novel end-to-end two-stage network: Spatio-Temporal-Interactive Network (STINet). In addition to 3D geometry modeling of pedestrians, we model the temporal information for each of the pedestrians. To do so, our method predicts both current and past locations in the first stage, so that each pedestrian can be linked across frames and the comprehensive spatio-temporal information can be captured in the second stage. Also, we model the interaction among objects with an interaction graph, to gather the information among the neighboring objects. Comprehensive experiments on the Lyft Dataset and the recently released large-scale Waymo Open Dataset for both object detection and future trajectory prediction validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. For the Waymo Open Dataset, we achieve a bird-eyes-view (BEV) detection AP of 80.73 and trajectory prediction average displacement error (ADE) of 33.67cm for pedestrians, which establish the state-of-the-art for both tasks.

Yukai Liu, Rose Yu, Stephan Zheng et al.

Missing value imputation is a fundamental problem in spatiotemporal modeling, from motion tracking to the dynamics of physical systems. Deep autoregressive models suffer from error propagation which becomes catastrophic for imputing long-range sequences. In this paper, we take a non-autoregressive approach and propose a novel deep generative model: Non-AutOregressive Multiresolution Imputation (NAOMI) to impute long-range sequences given arbitrary missing patterns. NAOMI exploits the multiresolution structure of spatiotemporal data and decodes recursively from coarse to fine-grained resolutions using a divide-and-conquer strategy. We further enhance our model with adversarial training. When evaluated extensively on benchmark datasets from systems of both deterministic and stochastic dynamics. NAOMI demonstrates significant improvement in imputation accuracy (reducing average prediction error by 60% compared to autoregressive counterparts) and generalization for long range sequences.