Yuchen Bai

Yuchen Bai, Georgios Athanasiou, Xin Yu et al.

Accurate next-day active fire forecasts can support early warning, disaster response, forest risk assessment, and downstream estimation of fire-related carbon emissions. Existing machine learning approaches to wildfire forecasting typically predict wildfire danger or fire probability on kilometre-scale daily grids, which is useful for regional warning but does not directly represent localized fire events. We propose Wildfire Ignition Set Predictor (WISP), a query-based model that reformulates next-day active fire forecasting as point-set prediction. From 48 hours of covariates including meteorology, satellite vegetation products, static land, and fire history, WISP predicts a fixed-size ranked set of future active fire cluster centres on a 375 m grid across globally distributed regions. The model is trained end-to-end with Hungarian matching; to address the conflicting roles of the classification score in assignment, ranking, and query activation, we use asymmetric classification-localization weighting in matching and loss. We further construct a globally distributed, hourly, multi-source benchmark for this task. On a held-out test set spanning fire regions worldwide, the best WISP variant achieves 38.2% average precision (AP) for ranked fire-centre detections, covers 53.4% of fire cluster mass weighted by fire radiative power (FRP), and localizes 54.1% of observed clusters within 5 km. These results establish sparse set prediction as a viable formulation for high-resolution wildfire forecasting and provide a benchmark for future work in this regime.

Yuchen Bai, Jean-Baptiste Durand, Grégoire Vincent et al.

LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) has become an essential part of the remote sensing toolbox used for biosphere monitoring. In particular, LiDAR provides the opportunity to map forest leaf area with unprecedented accuracy, while leaf area has remained an important source of uncertainty affecting models of gas exchanges between the vegetation and the atmosphere. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) are easy to mobilize and therefore allow frequent revisits to track the response of vegetation to climate change. However, miniature sensors embarked on UAVs usually provide point clouds of limited density, which are further affected by a strong decrease in density from top to bottom of the canopy due to progressively stronger occlusion. In such a context, discriminating leaf points from wood points presents a significant challenge due in particular to strong class imbalance and spatially irregular sampling intensity. Here we introduce a neural network model based on the Pointnet ++ architecture which makes use of point geometry only (excluding any spectral information). To cope with local data sparsity, we propose an innovative sampling scheme which strives to preserve local important geometric information. We also propose a loss function adapted to the severe class imbalance. We show that our model outperforms state-of-the-art alternatives on UAV point clouds. We discuss future possible improvements, particularly regarding much denser point clouds acquired from below the canopy.