Yuwen Gu

Qian Tang, Yuwen Gu, Boxiang Wang

Quantile regression is a powerful tool for robust and heterogeneous learning that has seen applications in a diverse range of applied areas. However, its broader application is often hindered by the substantial computational demands arising from the non-smooth quantile loss function. In this paper, we introduce a novel algorithm named fastkqr, which significantly advances the computation of quantile regression in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. The core of fastkqr is a finite smoothing algorithm that magically produces exact regression quantiles, rather than approximations. To further accelerate the algorithm, we equip fastkqr with a novel spectral technique that carefully reutilizes matrix computations. In addition, we extend fastkqr to accommodate a flexible kernel quantile regression with a data-driven crossing penalty, addressing the interpretability challenges of crossing quantile curves at multiple levels. We have implemented fastkqr in a publicly available R package. Extensive simulations and real applications show that fastkqr matches the accuracy of state-of-the-art algorithms but can operate up to an order of magnitude faster.

Alokesh Manna, Aditya Vikram Sett, Dipak K. Dey et al.

Prediction uncertainty quantification is a key research topic in recent years scientific and business problems. In insurance industries (\cite{parodi2023pricing}), assessing the range of possible claim costs for individual drivers improves premium pricing accuracy. It also enables insurers to manage risk more effectively by accounting for uncertainty in accident likelihood and severity. In the presence of covariates, a variety of regression-type models are often used for modeling insurance claims, ranging from relatively simple generalized linear models (GLMs) to regularized GLMs to gradient boosting models (GBMs). Conformal predictive inference has arisen as a popular distribution-free approach for quantifying predictive uncertainty under relatively weak assumptions of exchangeability, and has been well studied under the classic linear regression setting. In this work, we propose new non-conformity measures for GLMs and GBMs with GLM-type loss. Using regularized Tweedie GLM regression and LightGBM with Tweedie loss, we demonstrate conformal prediction performance with these non-conformity measures in insurance claims data. Our simulation results favor the use of locally weighted Pearson residuals for LightGBM over other methods considered, as the resulting intervals maintained the nominal coverage with the smallest average width.