Matthew Cooper

Jouni Helske, Satu Helske, Matthew Cooper et al.

Common reporting styles for statistical results in scientific articles, such as p-values and confidence intervals (CI), have been reported to be prone to dichotomous interpretations, especially with respect to the null hypothesis significance testing framework. For example when the p-value is small enough or the CIs of the mean effects of a studied drug and a placebo are not overlapping, scientists tend to claim significant differences while often disregarding the magnitudes and absolute differences in the effect sizes. This type of reasoning has been shown to be potentially harmful to science. Techniques relying on the visual estimation of the strength of evidence have been recommended to reduce such dichotomous interpretations but their effectiveness has also been challenged. We ran two experiments on researchers with expertise in statistical analysis to compare several alternative representations of confidence intervals and used Bayesian multilevel models to estimate the effects of the representation styles on differences in researchers' subjective confidence in the results. We also asked the respondents' opinions and preferences in representation styles. Our results suggest that adding visual information to classic CI representation can decrease the tendency towards dichotomous interpretations - measured as the `cliff effect': the sudden drop in confidence around p-value 0.05 - compared with classic CI visualization and textual representation of the CI with p-values. All data and analyses are publicly available at https://github.com/helske/statvis.

Tristan Ballard, Matthew Cooper, Chris Lowrie et al.

Carbon offset programs are critical in the fight against climate change. One emerging threat to the long-term stability and viability of forest carbon offset projects is wildfires, which can release large amounts of carbon and limit the efficacy of associated offsetting credits. However, analysis of wildfire risk to forest carbon projects is challenging because existing models for forecasting long-term fire risk are limited in predictive accuracy. Therefore, we propose an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) model trained on 7 million global satellite wildfire observations. Validation results suggest substantial potential for high resolution, enhanced accuracy projections of global wildfire risk, and the model outperforms the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research's leading fire model. Applied to a collection of 190 global forest carbon projects, we find that fire exposure is projected to increase 55% [37-76%] by 2080 under a mid-range scenario (SSP2-4.5). Our results indicate the large wildfire carbon project damages seen in the past decade are likely to become more frequent as forests become hotter and drier. In response, we hope the model can support wildfire managers, policymakers, and carbon market analysts to preemptively quantify and mitigate long-term permanence risks to forest carbon projects.

Lonni Besançon, Matthew Cooper, Anders Ynnerman et al.

We evaluate several augmentations to the choropleth map to convey additional information, including glyphs, 3D, cartograms, juxtaposed maps, and shading methods. While choropleth maps are a common method used to represent societal data, with multivariate data they can impede as much as improve understanding. In particular large, low population density regions often dominate the map and can mislead the viewer as to the message conveyed. Our results highlight the potential of 3D choropleth maps as well as the low accuracy of choropleth map tasks with multivariate data. We also introduce and evaluate popcharts, four techniques designed to show the density of population at a very fine scale on top of choropleth maps. All the data, results, and scripts are available from https://osf.io/8rxwg/.

Scott Carter, Pernilla Qvarfordt, Matthew Cooper et al.

Tutorials are one of the most fundamental means of conveying knowledge. Ideally when the task involves physical or digital objects, tutorials not only describe each step with text or via audio narration but show it as well using photos or animation. In most cases, online tutorial authors capture media from handheld mobile devices to compose these documents, but increasingly they use wearable devices as well. In this work, we explore the full life-cycle of online tutorial creation and viewing using head-mounted capture and displays. We developed a media-capture tool for Google Glass that requires minimal attention to the capture device and instead allows the author to focus on creating the tutorial's content rather than its capture. The capture tool is coupled with web-based authoring tools for creating annotatable videos and multimedia documents. In a study comparing standalone (camera on tripod) versus wearable capture (Google Glass) as well as two types of multimedia representation for authoring tutorials, we show that tutorial authors have a preference for wearable capture devices, especially when recording activities involving larger objects in non-desktop environments. Authors preferred document-based multimedia tutorials because they are more straightforward to compose and the step-based structure translates more directly to explaining a procedure. In addition, we explored using head-mounted displays for accessing tutorials in comparison to lightweight computing devices such as tablets. Our study included tutorials recorded with the same capture methods as in our access study. We found that although authors preferred head-mounted capture, tutorial consumers preferred video recorded by a camera on tripod that provides a more stable image of the workspace.

Jürgen Leitner, Adam W. Tow, Jake E. Dean et al.

Robotic challenges like the Amazon Picking Challenge (APC) or the DARPA Challenges are an established and important way to drive scientific progress. They make research comparable on a well-defined benchmark with equal test conditions for all participants. However, such challenge events occur only occasionally, are limited to a small number of contestants, and the test conditions are very difficult to replicate after the main event. We present a new physical benchmark challenge for robotic picking: the ACRV Picking Benchmark (APB). Designed to be reproducible, it consists of a set of 42 common objects, a widely available shelf, and exact guidelines for object arrangement using stencils. A well-defined evaluation protocol enables the comparison of \emph{complete} robotic systems -- including perception and manipulation -- instead of sub-systems only. Our paper also describes and reports results achieved by an open baseline system based on a Baxter robot.