Kevin Vanslette

Kevin Vanslette

This article expands the framework of Bayesian inference and provides direct probabilistic methods for approaching inference tasks that are typically handled with information theory. We treat Bayesian probability updating as a random process and uncover intrinsic quantitative features of joint probability distributions called inferential moments. Inferential moments quantify shape information about how a prior distribution is expected to update in response to yet to be obtained information. Further, we quantify the unique probability distribution whose statistical moments are the inferential moments in question. We find a power series expansion of the mutual information in terms of inferential moments, which implies a connection between inferential theoretic logic and elements of information theory. Of particular interest is the inferential deviation, which is the expected variation of the probability of one variable in response to an inferential update of another. We explore two applications that analyze the inferential deviations of a Bayesian network to improve decision-making. We implement simple greedy algorithms for exploring sensor tasking using inferential deviations that generally outperform similar greedy mutual information algorithms in terms of root mean squared error between epistemic probability estimates and the ground truth probabilities they are estimating.

Tony Tohme, Kevin Vanslette, Kamal Youcef-Toumi

While deep neural networks are highly performant and successful in a wide range of real-world problems, estimating their predictive uncertainty remains a challenging task. To address this challenge, we propose and implement a loss function for regression uncertainty estimation based on the Bayesian Validation Metric (BVM) framework while using ensemble learning. The proposed loss reproduces maximum likelihood estimation in the limiting case. A series of experiments on in-distribution data show that the proposed method is competitive with existing state-of-the-art methods. Experiments on out-of-distribution data show that the proposed method is robust to statistical change and exhibits superior predictive capability.

Nicholas Carrara, Kevin Vanslette

Using first principles from inference, we design a set of functionals for the purposes of \textit{ranking} joint probability distributions with respect to their correlations. Starting with a general functional, we impose its desired behaviour through the \textit{Principle of Constant Correlations} (PCC), which constrains the correlation functional to behave in a consistent way under statistically independent inferential transformations. The PCC guides us in choosing the appropriate design criteria for constructing the desired functionals. Since the derivations depend on a choice of partitioning the variable space into $n$ disjoint subspaces, the general functional we design is the $n$-partite information (NPI), of which the \textit{total correlation} and \textit{mutual information} are special cases. Thus, these functionals are found to be uniquely capable of determining whether a certain class of inferential transformations, $ρ\xrightarrow{*}ρ'$, preserve, destroy or create correlations. This provides conceptual clarity by ruling out other possible global correlation quantifiers. Finally, the derivation and results allow us to quantify non-binary notions of statistical sufficency. Our results express what percentage of the correlations are preserved under a given inferential transformation or variable mapping.