András György

Gellért Weisz, András György, Tadashi Kozuno et al. · deepmind

We consider approximate dynamic programming in $γ$-discounted Markov decision processes and apply it to approximate planning with linear value-function approximation. Our first contribution is a new variant of Approximate Policy Iteration (API), called Confident Approximate Policy Iteration (CAPI), which computes a deterministic stationary policy with an optimal error bound scaling linearly with the product of the effective horizon $H$ and the worst-case approximation error $ε$ of the action-value functions of stationary policies. This improvement over API (whose error scales with $H^2$) comes at the price of an $H$-fold increase in memory cost. Unlike Scherrer and Lesner [2012], who recommended computing a non-stationary policy to achieve a similar improvement (with the same memory overhead), we are able to stick to stationary policies. This allows for our second contribution, the application of CAPI to planning with local access to a simulator and $d$-dimensional linear function approximation. As such, we design a planning algorithm that applies CAPI to obtain a sequence of policies with successively refined accuracies on a dynamically evolving set of states. The algorithm outputs an $\tilde O(\sqrt{d}Hε)$-optimal policy after issuing $\tilde O(dH^4/ε^2)$ queries to the simulator, simultaneously achieving the optimal accuracy bound and the best known query complexity bound, while earlier algorithms in the literature achieve only one of them. This query complexity is shown to be tight in all parameters except $H$. These improvements come at the expense of a mild (polynomial) increase in memory and computational costs of both the algorithm and its output policy.

Yunhao Tang, Zhaohan Daniel Guo, Pierre Harvey Richemond et al.

We study the learning dynamics of self-predictive learning for reinforcement learning, a family of algorithms that learn representations by minimizing the prediction error of their own future latent representations. Despite its recent empirical success, such algorithms have an apparent defect: trivial representations (such as constants) minimize the prediction error, yet it is obviously undesirable to converge to such solutions. Our central insight is that careful designs of the optimization dynamics are critical to learning meaningful representations. We identify that a faster paced optimization of the predictor and semi-gradient updates on the representation, are crucial to preventing the representation collapse. Then in an idealized setup, we show self-predictive learning dynamics carries out spectral decomposition on the state transition matrix, effectively capturing information of the transition dynamics. Building on the theoretical insights, we propose bidirectional self-predictive learning, a novel self-predictive algorithm that learns two representations simultaneously. We examine the robustness of our theoretical insights with a number of small-scale experiments and showcase the promise of the novel representation learning algorithm with large-scale experiments.

Sanae Amani, Tor Lattimore, András György et al.

We study distributed contextual linear bandits with stochastic contexts, where $N$ agents act cooperatively to solve a linear bandit-optimization problem with $d$-dimensional features over the course of $T$ rounds. For this problem, we derive the first ever information-theoretic lower bound $Ω(dN)$ on the communication cost of any algorithm that performs optimally in a regret minimization setup. We then propose a distributed batch elimination version of the LinUCB algorithm, DisBE-LUCB, where the agents share information among each other through a central server. We prove that the communication cost of DisBE-LUCB matches our lower bound up to logarithmic factors. In particular, for scenarios with known context distribution, the communication cost of DisBE-LUCB is only $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(dN)$ and its regret is ${\tilde{\mathcal{O}}}(\sqrt{dNT})$, which is of the same order as that incurred by an optimal single-agent algorithm for $NT$ rounds. We also provide similar bounds for practical settings where the context distribution can only be estimated. Therefore, our proposed algorithm is nearly minimax optimal in terms of \emph{both regret and communication cost}. Finally, we propose DecBE-LUCB, a fully decentralized version of DisBE-LUCB, which operates without a central server, where agents share information with their \emph{immediate neighbors} through a carefully designed consensus procedure.

Tomer Galanti, András György, Marcus Hutter

We study the ability of foundation models to learn representations for classification that are transferable to new, unseen classes. Recent results in the literature show that representations learned by a single classifier over many classes are competitive on few-shot learning problems with representations learned by special-purpose algorithms designed for such problems. We offer a theoretical explanation for this behavior based on the recently discovered phenomenon of class-feature-variability collapse, that is, that during the training of deep classification networks the feature embeddings of samples belonging to the same class tend to concentrate around their class means. More specifically, we show that the few-shot error of the learned feature map on new classes (defined as the classification error of the nearest class-center classifier using centers learned from a small number of random samples from each new class) is small in case of class-feature-variability collapse, under the assumption that the classes are selected independently from a fixed distribution. This suggests that foundation models can provide feature maps that are transferable to new downstream tasks, even with very few samples; to our knowledge, this is the first performance bound for transfer-learning that is non-vacuous in the few-shot setting.

Tor Lattimore, András György

We introduce a simple and efficient algorithm for unconstrained zeroth-order stochastic convex bandits and prove its regret is at most $(1 + r/d)[d^{1.5} \sqrt{n} + d^3] polylog(n, d, r)$ where $n$ is the horizon, $d$ the dimension and $r$ is the radius of a known ball containing the minimiser of the loss.

Kiarash Shaloudegi, András György

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are widely used in machine learning. One of the major problems with MCMC is the question of how to design chains that mix fast over the whole state space; in particular, how to select the parameters of an MCMC algorithm. Here we take a different approach and, similarly to parallel MCMC methods, instead of trying to find a single chain that samples from the whole distribution, we combine samples from several chains run in parallel, each exploring only parts of the state space (e.g., a few modes only). The chains are prioritized based on kernel Stein discrepancy, which provides a good measure of performance locally. The samples from the independent chains are combined using a novel technique for estimating the probability of different regions of the sample space. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm may provide significant speedups in different sampling problems. Most importantly, when combined with the state-of-the-art NUTS algorithm as the base MCMC sampler, our method remained competitive with NUTS on sampling from unimodal distributions, while significantly outperforming state-of-the-art competitors on synthetic multimodal problems as well as on a challenging sensor localization task.

Sebastian Flennerhag, Tom Zahavy, Brendan O'Donoghue et al.

We study the connection between gradient-based meta-learning and convex op-timisation. We observe that gradient descent with momentum is a special case of meta-gradients, and building on recent results in optimisation, we prove convergence rates for meta-learning in the single task setting. While a meta-learned update rule can yield faster convergence up to constant factor, it is not sufficient for acceleration. Instead, some form of optimism is required. We show that optimism in meta-learning can be captured through Bootstrapped Meta-Gradients (Flennerhag et al., 2022), providing deeper insight into its underlying mechanics.

Gellért Weisz, András György, Csaba Szepesvári

We consider online reinforcement learning (RL) in episodic Markov decision processes (MDPs) under the linear $q^π$-realizability assumption, where it is assumed that the action-values of all policies can be expressed as linear functions of state-action features. This class is known to be more general than linear MDPs, where the transition kernel and the reward function are assumed to be linear functions of the feature vectors. As our first contribution, we show that the difference between the two classes is the presence of states in linearly $q^π$-realizable MDPs where for any policy, all the actions have approximately equal values, and skipping over these states by following an arbitrarily fixed policy in those states transforms the problem to a linear MDP. Based on this observation, we derive a novel (computationally inefficient) learning algorithm for linearly $q^π$-realizable MDPs that simultaneously learns what states should be skipped over and runs another learning algorithm on the linear MDP hidden in the problem. The method returns an $ε$-optimal policy after $\text{polylog}(H, d)/ε^2$ interactions with the MDP, where $H$ is the time horizon and $d$ is the dimension of the feature vectors, giving the first polynomial-sample-complexity online RL algorithm for this setting. The results are proved for the misspecified case, where the sample complexity is shown to degrade gracefully with the misspecification error.

Gheorghe Comanici, Eric Bieber, Mike Schaekermann et al. · amazon-science, baidu

In this report, we introduce the Gemini 2.X model family: Gemini 2.5 Pro and Gemini 2.5 Flash, as well as our earlier Gemini 2.0 Flash and Flash-Lite models. Gemini 2.5 Pro is our most capable model yet, achieving SoTA performance on frontier coding and reasoning benchmarks. In addition to its incredible coding and reasoning skills, Gemini 2.5 Pro is a thinking model that excels at multimodal understanding and it is now able to process up to 3 hours of video content. Its unique combination of long context, multimodal and reasoning capabilities can be combined to unlock new agentic workflows. Gemini 2.5 Flash provides excellent reasoning abilities at a fraction of the compute and latency requirements and Gemini 2.0 Flash and Flash-Lite provide high performance at low latency and cost. Taken together, the Gemini 2.X model generation spans the full Pareto frontier of model capability vs cost, allowing users to explore the boundaries of what is possible with complex agentic problem solving.

Gemma Team, Aishwarya Kamath, Johan Ferret et al. · deepmind, mit

We introduce Gemma 3, a multimodal addition to the Gemma family of lightweight open models, ranging in scale from 1 to 27 billion parameters. This version introduces vision understanding abilities, a wider coverage of languages and longer context - at least 128K tokens. We also change the architecture of the model to reduce the KV-cache memory that tends to explode with long context. This is achieved by increasing the ratio of local to global attention layers, and keeping the span on local attention short. The Gemma 3 models are trained with distillation and achieve superior performance to Gemma 2 for both pre-trained and instruction finetuned versions. In particular, our novel post-training recipe significantly improves the math, chat, instruction-following and multilingual abilities, making Gemma3-4B-IT competitive with Gemma2-27B-IT and Gemma3-27B-IT comparable to Gemini-1.5-Pro across benchmarks. We release all our models to the community.

Yasin Abbasi Yadkori, Ilja Kuzborskij, David Stutz et al. · deepmind

We develop a principled procedure for determining when a large language model (LLM) should abstain from responding (e.g., by saying "I don't know") in a general domain, instead of resorting to possibly "hallucinating" a non-sensical or incorrect answer. Building on earlier approaches that use self-consistency as a more reliable measure of model confidence, we propose using the LLM itself to self-evaluate the similarity between each of its sampled responses for a given query. We then further leverage conformal prediction techniques to develop an abstention procedure that benefits from rigorous theoretical guarantees on the hallucination rate (error rate). Experimentally, our resulting conformal abstention method reliably bounds the hallucination rate on various closed-book, open-domain generative question answering datasets, while also maintaining a significantly less conservative abstention rate on a dataset with long responses (Temporal Sequences) compared to baselines using log-probability scores to quantify uncertainty, while achieveing comparable performance on a dataset with short answers (TriviaQA). To evaluate the experiments automatically, one needs to determine if two responses are equivalent given a question. Following standard practice, we use a thresholded similarity function to determine if two responses match, but also provide a method for calibrating the threshold based on conformal prediction, with theoretical guarantees on the accuracy of the match prediction, which might be of independent interest.

Nevena Lazić, Liam Fowl, András György et al.

We investigate the ability of decoder-only transformer models to perform abstract symbolic reasoning; specifically solving propositional logic reasoning problems given in-context. Previous work demonstrated that models fail to generalize to problems involving variable names that were not observed during training, and it was shown that one reason behind this is the difficulty of copying (or generating) unseen tokens. We show both theoretically and empirically that a particular representational collapse also has a crucial role: the unembeddings (last-layer weights) of unseen tokens collapse to nearly the same vector during training. The collapse makes distinguishing multiple unseen variables difficult for the model (especially when the embedding and unembedding parameters are shared), and provides a mechanistic explanation for the effectiveness of existing heuristic interventions like "active forgetting", which periodically reset the token (un)embeddings. Based on these observations, we devise a combination of techniques, involving a small architecture change facilitating copying, data diversity, and freezing or resetting (un)embeddings, that achieves generalization to unseen tokens. We support our claims with extensive controlled experiments on propositional logic reasoning problems. Beyond synthetic experiments, we also observe evidence of (un)embedding collapse in the open-weight models in the Gemma 3 family, which includes 99 unused tokens reserved for downstream use. Empirically we find that the correlated embeddings of these tokens are a poor initialization for finetuning applications.

Bryan Chan, Xinyi Chen, András György et al.

It has recently been demonstrated empirically that in-context learning emerges in transformers when certain distributional properties are present in the training data, but this ability can also diminish upon further training. We provide a new theoretical understanding of these phenomena by identifying simplified distributional properties that give rise to the emergence and eventual disappearance of in-context learning. We do so by first analyzing a simplified model that uses a gating mechanism to choose between an in-weight and an in-context predictor. Through a combination of a generalization error and regret analysis we identify conditions where in-context and in-weight learning emerge. These theoretical findings are then corroborated experimentally by comparing the behaviour of a full transformer on the simplified distributions to that of the stylized model, demonstrating aligned results. We then extend the study to a full large language model, showing how fine-tuning on various collections of natural language prompts can elicit similar in-context and in-weight learning behaviour.

Alexandre Galashov, Michalis K. Titsias, András György et al. · deepmind

Neural networks are traditionally trained under the assumption that data come from a stationary distribution. However, settings which violate this assumption are becoming more popular; examples include supervised learning under distributional shifts, reinforcement learning, continual learning and non-stationary contextual bandits. In this work we introduce a novel learning approach that automatically models and adapts to non-stationarity, via an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with an adaptive drift parameter. The adaptive drift tends to draw the parameters towards the initialisation distribution, so the approach can be understood as a form of soft parameter reset. We show empirically that our approach performs well in non-stationary supervised and off-policy reinforcement learning settings.

Dan A. Calian, Gregory Farquhar, Iurii Kemaev et al.

The quality of foundation models depends heavily on their training data. Consequently, great efforts have been put into dataset curation. Yet most approaches rely on manual tuning of coarse-grained mixtures of large buckets of data, or filtering by hand-crafted heuristics. An approach that is ultimately more scalable (let alone more satisfying) is to \emph{learn} which data is actually valuable for training. This type of meta-learning could allow more sophisticated, fine-grained, and effective curation. Our proposed \emph{DataRater} is an instance of this idea. It estimates the value of training on any particular data point. This is done by meta-learning using `meta-gradients', with the objective of improving training efficiency on held out data. In extensive experiments across a range of model scales and datasets, we find that using our DataRater to filter data is highly effective, resulting in significantly improved compute efficiency.

Alan Malek, Jiawei Ge, Nevena Lazic et al.

While state-of-the-art large language models (LLMs) demonstrate advanced reasoning capabilities-achieving remarkable performance on challenging competitive math and coding benchmarks-they also frequently fail on tasks that are easy for humans. This work studies the performance of frontier LLMs on a broad set of such "easy" reasoning problems. By extending previous work in the literature, we create a suite of procedurally generated simple reasoning tasks, including counting, first-order logic, proof trees, and travel planning, with changeable parameters (such as document length. or the number of variables in a math problem) that can arbitrarily increase the amount of computation required to produce the answer while preserving the fundamental difficulty. While previous work showed that traditional, non-thinking models can be made to fail on such problems, we demonstrate that even state-of-the-art thinking models consistently fail on such problems and for similar reasons (e.g. statistical shortcuts, errors in intermediate steps, and difficulties in processing long contexts). To further understand the behavior of the models, we introduce the unpuzzles dataset, a different "easy" benchmark consisting of trivialized versions of well-known math and logic puzzles. Interestingly, while modern LLMs excel at solving the original puzzles, they tend to fail on the trivialized versions, exhibiting several systematic failure patterns related to memorizing the originals. We show that this happens even if the models are otherwise able to solve problems with different descriptions but requiring the same logic. Our results highlight that out-of-distribution generalization is still problematic for frontier language models and the new generation of thinking models, even for simple reasoning tasks, and making tasks easier does not necessarily imply improved performance.

András György, Tor Lattimore, Nevena Lazić et al.

Sound deductive reasoning -- the ability to derive new knowledge from existing facts and rules -- is an indisputably desirable aspect of general intelligence. Despite the major advances of AI systems in areas such as math and science, especially since the introduction of transformer architectures, it is well-documented that even the most advanced frontier systems regularly and consistently falter on easily-solvable deductive reasoning tasks. Hence, these systems are unfit to fulfill the dream of achieving artificial general intelligence capable of sound deductive reasoning. We argue that their unsound behavior is a consequence of the statistical learning approach powering their development. To overcome this, we contend that to achieve reliable deductive reasoning in learning-based AI systems, researchers must fundamentally shift from optimizing for statistical performance against distributions on reasoning problems and algorithmic tasks to embracing the more ambitious exact learning paradigm, which demands correctness on all inputs. We argue that exact learning is both essential and possible, and that this ambitious objective should guide algorithm design.

Nicolas Nguyen, Imad Aouali, András György et al.

We study the problem of Bayesian fixed-budget best-arm identification (BAI) in structured bandits. We propose an algorithm that uses fixed allocations based on the prior information and the structure of the environment. We provide theoretical bounds on its performance across diverse models, including the first prior-dependent upper bounds for linear and hierarchical BAI. Our key contribution is introducing new proof methods that result in tighter bounds for multi-armed BAI compared to existing methods. We extensively compare our approach to other fixed-budget BAI methods, demonstrating its consistent and robust performance in various settings. Our work improves our understanding of Bayesian fixed-budget BAI in structured bandits and highlights the effectiveness of our approach in practical scenarios.

Róbert Busa-Fekete, Julian Zimmert, András György et al.

Web refresh crawling is the problem of keeping a cache of web pages fresh, that is, having the most recent copy available when a page is requested, given a limited bandwidth available to the crawler. Under the assumption that the change and request events, resp., to each web page follow independent Poisson processes, the optimal scheduling policy was derived by Azar et al. 2018. In this paper, we study an extension of this problem where side information indicating content changes, such as various types of web pings, for example, signals from sitemaps, content delivery networks, etc., is available. Incorporating such side information into the crawling policy is challenging, because (i) the signals can be noisy with false positive events and with missing change events; and (ii) the crawler should achieve a fair performance over web pages regardless of the quality of the side information, which might differ from web page to web page. We propose a scalable crawling algorithm which (i) uses the noisy side information in an optimal way under mild assumptions; (ii) can be deployed without heavy centralized computation; (iii) is able to crawl web pages at a constant total rate without spikes in the total bandwidth usage over any time interval, and automatically adapt to the new optimal solution when the total bandwidth changes without centralized computation. Experiments clearly demonstrate the versatility of our approach.

Alex Lewandowski, Michał Bortkiewicz, Saurabh Kumar et al.

Loss of plasticity is a phenomenon where neural networks can become more difficult to train over the course of learning. Continual learning algorithms seek to mitigate this effect by sustaining good performance while maintaining network trainability. We develop a new technique for improving continual learning inspired by the observation that the singular values of the neural network parameters at initialization are an important factor for trainability during early phases of learning. From this perspective, we derive a new spectral regularizer for continual learning that better sustains these beneficial initialization properties throughout training. In particular, the regularizer keeps the maximum singular value of each layer close to one. Spectral regularization directly ensures that gradient diversity is maintained throughout training, which promotes continual trainability, while minimally interfering with performance in a single task. We present an experimental analysis that shows how the proposed spectral regularizer can sustain trainability and performance across a range of model architectures in continual supervised and reinforcement learning settings. Spectral regularization is less sensitive to hyperparameters while demonstrating better training in individual tasks, sustaining trainability as new tasks arrive, and achieving better generalization performance.

Yasin Abbasi Yadkori, Ilja Kuzborskij, András György et al.

We explore uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs), with the goal to identify when uncertainty in responses given a query is large. We simultaneously consider both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, where the former comes from the lack of knowledge about the ground truth (such as about facts or the language), and the latter comes from irreducible randomness (such as multiple possible answers). In particular, we derive an information-theoretic metric that allows to reliably detect when only epistemic uncertainty is large, in which case the output of the model is unreliable. This condition can be computed based solely on the output of the model obtained simply by some special iterative prompting based on the previous responses. Such quantification, for instance, allows to detect hallucinations (cases when epistemic uncertainty is high) in both single- and multi-answer responses. This is in contrast to many standard uncertainty quantification strategies (such as thresholding the log-likelihood of a response) where hallucinations in the multi-answer case cannot be detected. We conduct a series of experiments which demonstrate the advantage of our formulation. Further, our investigations shed some light on how the probabilities assigned to a given output by an LLM can be amplified by iterative prompting, which might be of independent interest.

Qinghua Liu, Gellért Weisz, András György et al.

While policy optimization algorithms have played an important role in recent empirical success of Reinforcement Learning (RL), the existing theoretical understanding of policy optimization remains rather limited -- they are either restricted to tabular MDPs or suffer from highly suboptimal sample complexity, especial in online RL where exploration is necessary. This paper proposes a simple efficient policy optimization framework -- Optimistic NPG for online RL. Optimistic NPG can be viewed as a simple combination of the classic natural policy gradient (NPG) algorithm [Kakade, 2001] with optimistic policy evaluation subroutines to encourage exploration. For $d$-dimensional linear MDPs, Optimistic NPG is computationally efficient, and learns an $\varepsilon$-optimal policy within $\tilde{O}(d^2/\varepsilon^3)$ samples, which is the first computationally efficient algorithm whose sample complexity has the optimal dimension dependence $\tildeΘ(d^2)$. It also improves over state-of-the-art results of policy optimization algorithms [Zanette et al., 2021] by a factor of $d$. In the realm of general function approximation, which subsumes linear MDPs, Optimistic NPG, to our best knowledge, stands as the first policy optimization algorithm that achieves polynomial sample complexity for learning near-optimal policies.

MohammadJavad Azizi, Thang Duong, Yasin Abbasi-Yadkori et al.

We study a sequential decision problem where the learner faces a sequence of $K$-armed bandit tasks. The task boundaries might be known (the bandit meta-learning setting), or unknown (the non-stationary bandit setting). For a given integer $M\le K$, the learner aims to compete with the best subset of arms of size $M$. We design an algorithm based on a reduction to bandit submodular maximization, and show that, for $T$ rounds comprised of $N$ tasks, in the regime of large number of tasks and small number of optimal arms $M$, its regret in both settings is smaller than the simple baseline of $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{KNT})$ that can be obtained by using standard algorithms designed for non-stationary bandit problems. For the bandit meta-learning problem with fixed task length $τ$, we show that the regret of the algorithm is bounded as $\tilde{O}(NM\sqrt{M τ}+N^{2/3}Mτ)$. Under additional assumptions on the identifiability of the optimal arms in each task, we show a bandit meta-learning algorithm with an improved $\tilde{O}(N\sqrt{M τ}+N^{1/2}\sqrt{M K τ})$ regret.

Tomer Galanti, András György, Marcus Hutter

We study the ability of foundation models to learn representations for classification that are transferable to new, unseen classes. Recent results in the literature show that representations learned by a single classifier over many classes are competitive on few-shot learning problems with representations learned by special-purpose algorithms designed for such problems. In this paper we provide an explanation for this behavior based on the recently observed phenomenon that the features learned by overparameterized classification networks show an interesting clustering property, called neural collapse. We demonstrate both theoretically and empirically that neural collapse generalizes to new samples from the training classes, and -- more importantly -- to new classes as well, allowing foundation models to provide feature maps that work well in transfer learning and, specifically, in the few-shot setting.

Gellért Weisz, Csaba Szepesvári, András György

We consider the minimax query complexity of online planning with a generative model in fixed-horizon Markov decision processes (MDPs) with linear function approximation. Following recent works, we consider broad classes of problems where either (i) the optimal value function $v^\star$ or (ii) the optimal action-value function $q^\star$ lie in the linear span of some features; or (iii) both $v^\star$ and $q^\star$ lie in the linear span when restricted to the states reachable from the starting state. Recently, Weisz et al. (2021b) showed that under (ii) the minimax query complexity of any planning algorithm is at least exponential in the horizon $H$ or in the feature dimension $d$ when the size $A$ of the action set can be chosen to be exponential in $\min(d,H)$. On the other hand, for the setting (i), Weisz et al. (2021a) introduced TensorPlan, a planner whose query cost is polynomial in all relevant quantities when the number of actions is fixed. Among other things, these two works left open the question whether polynomial query complexity is possible when $A$ is subexponential in $\min(d,H)$. In this paper we answer this question in the negative: we show that an exponentially large lower bound holds when $A=Ω(\min(d^{1/4},H^{1/2}))$, under either (i), (ii) or (iii). In particular, this implies a perhaps surprising exponential separation of query complexity compared to the work of Du et al. (2021) who prove a polynomial upper bound when (iii) holds for all states. Furthermore, we show that the upper bound of TensorPlan can be extended to hold under (iii) and, for MDPs with deterministic transitions and stochastic rewards, also under (ii).

Gábor Melis, András György, Phil Blunsom

A common failure mode of density models trained as variational autoencoders is to model the data without relying on their latent variables, rendering these variables useless. Two contributing factors, the underspecification of the model and the looseness of the variational lower bound, have been studied separately in the literature. We weave these two strands of research together, specifically the tighter bounds of Monte-Carlo objectives and constraints on the mutual information between the observable and the latent variables. Estimating the mutual information as the average Kullback-Leibler divergence between the easily available variational posterior $q(z|x)$ and the prior does not work with Monte-Carlo objectives because $q(z|x)$ is no longer a direct approximation to the model's true posterior $p(z|x)$. Hence, we construct estimators of the Kullback-Leibler divergence of the true posterior from the prior by recycling samples used in the objective, with which we train models of continuous and discrete latents at much improved rate-distortion and no posterior collapse. While alleviated, the tradeoff between modelling the data and using the latents still remains, and we urge for evaluating inference methods across a range of mutual information values.

András György, Pooria Joulani

We consider the adversarial multi-armed bandit problem under delayed feedback. We analyze variants of the Exp3 algorithm that tune their step-size using only information (about the losses and delays) available at the time of the decisions, and obtain regret guarantees that adapt to the observed (rather than the worst-case) sequences of delays and/or losses. First, through a remarkably simple proof technique, we show that with proper tuning of the step size, the algorithm achieves an optimal (up to logarithmic factors) regret of order $\sqrt{\log(K)(TK + D)}$ both in expectation and in high probability, where $K$ is the number of arms, $T$ is the time horizon, and $D$ is the cumulative delay. The high-probability version of the bound, which is the first high-probability delay-adaptive bound in the literature, crucially depends on the use of implicit exploration in estimating the losses. Then, following Zimmert and Seldin [2019], we extend these results so that the algorithm can "skip" rounds with large delays, resulting in regret bounds of order $\sqrt{TK\log(K)} + |R| + \sqrt{D_{\bar{R}}\log(K)}$, where $R$ is an arbitrary set of rounds (which are skipped) and $D_{\bar{R}}$ is the cumulative delay of the feedback for other rounds. Finally, we present another, data-adaptive (AdaGrad-style) version of the algorithm for which the regret adapts to the observed (delayed) losses instead of only adapting to the cumulative delay (this algorithm requires an a priori upper bound on the maximum delay, or the advance knowledge of the delay for each decision when it is made). The resulting bound can be orders of magnitude smaller on benign problems, and it can be shown that the delay only affects the regret through the loss of the best arm.

Tor Lattimore, András György

We establish a connection between the stability of mirror descent and the information ratio by Russo and Van Roy [2014]. Our analysis shows that mirror descent with suitable loss estimators and exploratory distributions enjoys the same bound on the adversarial regret as the bounds on the Bayesian regret for information-directed sampling. Along the way, we develop the theory for information-directed sampling and provide an efficient algorithm for adversarial bandits for which the regret upper bound matches exactly the best known information-theoretic upper bound.

Ilja Kuzborskij, Claire Vernade, András György et al.

We consider off-policy evaluation in the contextual bandit setting for the purpose of obtaining a robust off-policy selection strategy, where the selection strategy is evaluated based on the value of the chosen policy in a set of proposal (target) policies. We propose a new method to compute a lower bound on the value of an arbitrary target policy given some logged data in contextual bandits for a desired coverage. The lower bound is built around the so-called Self-normalized Importance Weighting (SN) estimator. It combines the use of a semi-empirical Efron-Stein tail inequality to control the concentration and a new multiplicative (rather than additive) control of the bias. The new approach is evaluated on a number of synthetic and real datasets and is found to be superior to its main competitors, both in terms of tightness of the confidence intervals and the quality of the policies chosen.

Pedro A. Ortega, Jane X. Wang, Mark Rowland et al.

In this report we review memory-based meta-learning as a tool for building sample-efficient strategies that learn from past experience to adapt to any task within a target class. Our goal is to equip the reader with the conceptual foundations of this tool for building new, scalable agents that operate on broad domains. To do so, we present basic algorithmic templates for building near-optimal predictors and reinforcement learners which behave as if they had a probabilistic model that allowed them to efficiently exploit task structure. Furthermore, we recast memory-based meta-learning within a Bayesian framework, showing that the meta-learned strategies are near-optimal because they amortize Bayes-filtered data, where the adaptation is implemented in the memory dynamics as a state-machine of sufficient statistics. Essentially, memory-based meta-learning translates the hard problem of probabilistic sequential inference into a regression problem.

Roman Werpachowski, András György, Csaba Szepesvári

The repeated community-wide reuse of test sets in popular benchmark problems raises doubts about the credibility of reported test-error rates. Verifying whether a learned model is overfitted to a test set is challenging as independent test sets drawn from the same data distribution are usually unavailable, while other test sets may introduce a distribution shift. We propose a new hypothesis test that uses only the original test data to detect overfitting. It utilizes a new unbiased error estimate that is based on adversarial examples generated from the test data and importance weighting. Overfitting is detected if this error estimate is sufficiently different from the original test error rate. We develop a specialized variant of our test for multiclass image classification, and apply it to testing overfitting of recent models to the popular ImageNet benchmark. Our method correctly indicates overfitting of the trained model to the training set, but is not able to detect any overfitting to the test set, in line with other recent work on this topic.

Ray Jiang, Silvia Chiappa, Tor Lattimore et al.

Machine learning is used extensively in recommender systems deployed in products. The decisions made by these systems can influence user beliefs and preferences which in turn affect the feedback the learning system receives - thus creating a feedback loop. This phenomenon can give rise to the so-called "echo chambers" or "filter bubbles" that have user and societal implications. In this paper, we provide a novel theoretical analysis that examines both the role of user dynamics and the behavior of recommender systems, disentangling the echo chamber from the filter bubble effect. In addition, we offer practical solutions to slow down system degeneracy. Our study contributes toward understanding and developing solutions to commonly cited issues in the complex temporal scenario, an area that is still largely unexplored.

Timothy A. Mann, Sven Gowal, András György et al.

Predicting delayed outcomes is an important problem in recommender systems (e.g., if customers will finish reading an ebook). We formalize the problem as an adversarial, delayed online learning problem and consider how a proxy for the delayed outcome (e.g., if customers read a third of the book in 24 hours) can help minimize regret, even though the proxy is not available when making a prediction. Motivated by our regret analysis, we propose two neural network architectures: Factored Forecaster (FF) which is ideal if the proxy is informative of the outcome in hindsight, and Residual Factored Forecaster (RFF) that is robust to a non-informative proxy. Experiments on two real-world datasets for predicting human behavior show that RFF outperforms both FF and a direct forecaster that does not make use of the proxy. Our results suggest that exploiting proxies by factorization is a promising way to mitigate the impact of long delays in human-behavior prediction tasks.

Gellért Weisz, András György, Csaba Szepesvári

We consider the problem of configuring general-purpose solvers to run efficiently on problem instances drawn from an unknown distribution. The goal of the configurator is to find a configuration that runs fast on average on most instances, and do so with the least amount of total work. It can run a chosen solver on a random instance until the solver finishes or a timeout is reached. We propose LeapsAndBounds, an algorithm that tests configurations on randomly selected problem instances for longer and longer time. We prove that the capped expected runtime of the configuration returned by LeapsAndBounds is close to the optimal expected runtime, while our algorithm's running time is near-optimal. Our results show that LeapsAndBounds is more efficient than the recent algorithm of Kleinberg et al. (2017), which, to our knowledge, is the only other algorithm configuration method with non-trivial theoretical guarantees. Experimental results on configuring a public SAT solver on a new benchmark dataset also stand witness to the superiority of our method.

Kiarash Shaloudegi, András György

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are widely used in machine learning. One of the major problems with MCMC is the question of how to design chains that mix fast over the whole state space; in particular, how to select the parameters of an MCMC algorithm. Here we take a different approach and, similarly to parallel MCMC methods, instead of trying to find a single chain that samples from the whole distribution, we combine samples from several chains run in parallel, each exploring only parts of the state space (e.g., a few modes only). The chains are prioritized based on kernel Stein discrepancy, which provides a good measure of performance locally. The samples from the independent chains are combined using a novel technique for estimating the probability of different regions of the sample space. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm may provide significant speedups in different sampling problems. Most importantly, when combined with the state-of-the-art NUTS algorithm as the base MCMC sampler, our method remained competitive with NUTS on sampling from unimodal distributions, while significantly outperforming state-of-the-art competitors on synthetic multimodal problems as well as on a challenging sensor localization task.

Elif Tuğçe Ceran, Deniz Gündüz, András György

Scheduling the transmission of time-sensitive data to multiple users over error-prone communication channels is studied with the goal of minimizing the long-term average age of information (AoI) at the users under a constraint on the average number of transmissions at the source node. After each transmission, the source receives an instantaneous ACK/NACK feedback from the intended receiver and decides on what time and to which user to transmit the next update. The optimal scheduling policy is first studied under different feedback mechanisms when the channel statistics are known; in particular, the standard automatic repeat request (ARQ) and hybrid ARQ (HARQ) protocols are considered. Then a reinforcement learning (RL) approach is introduced, which does not assume any a priori information on the random processes governing the channel states. Different RL methods are verified and compared through numerical simulations.

Pooria Joulani, András György, Csaba Szepesvári

Recently, much work has been done on extending the scope of online learning and incremental stochastic optimization algorithms. In this paper we contribute to this effort in two ways: First, based on a new regret decomposition and a generalization of Bregman divergences, we provide a self-contained, modular analysis of the two workhorses of online learning: (general) adaptive versions of Mirror Descent (MD) and the Follow-the-Regularized-Leader (FTRL) algorithms. The analysis is done with extra care so as not to introduce assumptions not needed in the proofs and allows to combine, in a straightforward way, different algorithmic ideas (e.g., adaptivity, optimism, implicit updates) and learning settings (e.g., strongly convex or composite objectives). This way we are able to reprove, extend and refine a large body of the literature, while keeping the proofs concise. The second contribution is a byproduct of this careful analysis: We present algorithms with improved variational bounds for smooth, composite objectives, including a new family of optimistic MD algorithms with only one projection step per round. Furthermore, we provide a simple extension of adaptive regret bounds to practically relevant non-convex problem settings with essentially no extra effort.

Ruitong Huang, Tor Lattimore, András György et al.

The follow the leader (FTL) algorithm, perhaps the simplest of all online learning algorithms, is known to perform well when the loss functions it is used on are convex and positively curved. In this paper we ask whether there are other "lucky" settings when FTL achieves sublinear, "small" regret. In particular, we study the fundamental problem of linear prediction over a non-empty convex, compact domain. Amongst other results, we prove that the curvature of the boundary of the domain can act as if the losses were curved: In this case, we prove that as long as the mean of the loss vectors have positive lengths bounded away from zero, FTL enjoys a logarithmic growth rate of regret, while, e.g., for polytope domains and stochastic data it enjoys finite expected regret. Building on a previously known meta-algorithm, we also get an algorithm that simultaneously enjoys the worst-case guarantees and the bound available for FTL.

Kiarash Shaloudegi, András György, Csaba Szepesvári et al.

We develop a scalable, computationally efficient method for the task of energy disaggregation for home appliance monitoring. In this problem the goal is to estimate the energy consumption of each appliance over time based on the total energy-consumption signal of a household. The current state of the art is to model the problem as inference in factorial HMMs, and use quadratic programming to find an approximate solution to the resulting quadratic integer program. Here we take a more principled approach, better suited to integer programming problems, and find an approximate optimum by combining convex semidefinite relaxations randomized rounding, as well as a scalable ADMM method that exploits the special structure of the resulting semidefinite program. Simulation results both in synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our method.

Xiaowei Hu, Prashanth L. A., András György et al.

Algorithms for bandit convex optimization and online learning often rely on constructing noisy gradient estimates, which are then used in appropriately adjusted first-order algorithms, replacing actual gradients. Depending on the properties of the function to be optimized and the nature of ``noise'' in the bandit feedback, the bias and variance of gradient estimates exhibit various tradeoffs. In this paper we propose a novel framework that replaces the specific gradient estimation methods with an abstract oracle. With the help of the new framework we unify previous works, reproducing their results in a clean and concise fashion, while, perhaps more importantly, the framework also allows us to formally show that to achieve the optimal root-$n$ rate either the algorithms that use existing gradient estimators, or the proof techniques used to analyze them have to go beyond what exists today.

Gábor Balázs, András György, Csaba Szepesvári

This paper extends the standard chaining technique to prove excess risk upper bounds for empirical risk minimization with random design settings even if the magnitude of the noise and the estimates is unbounded. The bound applies to many loss functions besides the squared loss, and scales only with the sub-Gaussian or subexponential parameters without further statistical assumptions such as the bounded kurtosis condition over the hypothesis class. A detailed analysis is provided for slope constrained and penalized linear least squares regression with a sub-Gaussian setting, which often proves tight sample complexity bounds up to logartihmic factors.

Gábor Balázs, András György, Csaba Szepesvári

In this paper, we consider two sequential decision making problems with a convexity structure, namely an energy storage optimization task and a multi-product assembly example. We formulate these problems in the stochastic programming framework and discuss an approximate dynamic programming technique for their solutions. As the cost-to-go functions are convex in these cases, we use max-affine estimates for their approximations. To train such a max-affine estimate, we provide a new convex regression algorithm, and evaluate it empirically for these planning scenarios.

Yifan Wu, András György, Csaba Szepesvári

We consider a sequential learning problem with Gaussian payoffs and side information: after selecting an action $i$, the learner receives information about the payoff of every action $j$ in the form of Gaussian observations whose mean is the same as the mean payoff, but the variance depends on the pair $(i,j)$ (and may be infinite). The setup allows a more refined information transfer from one action to another than previous partial monitoring setups, including the recently introduced graph-structured feedback case. For the first time in the literature, we provide non-asymptotic problem-dependent lower bounds on the regret of any algorithm, which recover existing asymptotic problem-dependent lower bounds and finite-time minimax lower bounds available in the literature. We also provide algorithms that achieve the problem-dependent lower bound (up to some universal constant factor) or the minimax lower bounds (up to logarithmic factors).

Pooria Joulani, András György, Csaba Szepesvári

Cross-validation (CV) is one of the main tools for performance estimation and parameter tuning in machine learning. The general recipe for computing CV estimate is to run a learning algorithm separately for each CV fold, a computationally expensive process. In this paper, we propose a new approach to reduce the computational burden of CV-based performance estimation. As opposed to all previous attempts, which are specific to a particular learning model or problem domain, we propose a general method applicable to a large class of incremental learning algorithms, which are uniquely fitted to big data problems. In particular, our method applies to a wide range of supervised and unsupervised learning tasks with different performance criteria, as long as the base learning algorithm is incremental. We show that the running time of the algorithm scales logarithmically, rather than linearly, in the number of CV folds. Furthermore, the algorithm has favorable properties for parallel and distributed implementation. Experiments with state-of-the-art incremental learning algorithms confirm the practicality of the proposed method.

James Neufeld, András György, Dale Schuurmans et al.

We consider the problem of sequentially choosing between a set of unbiased Monte Carlo estimators to minimize the mean-squared-error (MSE) of a final combined estimate. By reducing this task to a stochastic multi-armed bandit problem, we show that well developed allocation strategies can be used to achieve an MSE that approaches that of the best estimator chosen in retrospect. We then extend these developments to a scenario where alternative estimators have different, possibly stochastic costs. The outcome is a new set of adaptive Monte Carlo strategies that provide stronger guarantees than previous approaches while offering practical advantages.

András György, Levente Kocsis

Local search algorithms applied to optimization problems often suffer from getting trapped in a local optimum. The common solution for this deficiency is to restart the algorithm when no progress is observed. Alternatively, one can start multiple instances of a local search algorithm, and allocate computational resources (in particular, processing time) to the instances depending on their behavior. Hence, a multi-start strategy has to decide (dynamically) when to allocate additional resources to a particular instance and when to start new instances. In this paper we propose multi-start strategies motivated by works on multi-armed bandit problems and Lipschitz optimization with an unknown constant. The strategies continuously estimate the potential performance of each algorithm instance by supposing a convergence rate of the local search algorithm up to an unknown constant, and in every phase allocate resources to those instances that could converge to the optimum for a particular range of the constant. Asymptotic bounds are given on the performance of the strategies. In particular, we prove that at most a quadratic increase in the number of times the target function is evaluated is needed to achieve the performance of a local search algorithm started from the attraction region of the optimum. Experiments are provided using SPSA (Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation) and k-means as local search algorithms, and the results indicate that the proposed strategies work well in practice, and, in all cases studied, need only logarithmically more evaluations of the target function as opposed to the theoretically suggested quadratic increase.

Pooria Joulani, András György, Csaba Szepesvári

Online learning with delayed feedback has received increasing attention recently due to its several applications in distributed, web-based learning problems. In this paper we provide a systematic study of the topic, and analyze the effect of delay on the regret of online learning algorithms. Somewhat surprisingly, it turns out that delay increases the regret in a multiplicative way in adversarial problems, and in an additive way in stochastic problems. We give meta-algorithms that transform, in a black-box fashion, algorithms developed for the non-delayed case into ones that can handle the presence of delays in the feedback loop. Modifications of the well-known UCB algorithm are also developed for the bandit problem with delayed feedback, with the advantage over the meta-algorithms that they can be implemented with lower complexity.

Arash Afkanpour, András György, Csaba Szepesvári et al.

We consider the problem of simultaneously learning to linearly combine a very large number of kernels and learn a good predictor based on the learnt kernel. When the number of kernels $d$ to be combined is very large, multiple kernel learning methods whose computational cost scales linearly in $d$ are intractable. We propose a randomized version of the mirror descent algorithm to overcome this issue, under the objective of minimizing the group $p$-norm penalized empirical risk. The key to achieve the required exponential speed-up is the computationally efficient construction of low-variance estimates of the gradient. We propose importance sampling based estimates, and find that the ideal distribution samples a coordinate with a probability proportional to the magnitude of the corresponding gradient. We show the surprising result that in the case of learning the coefficients of a polynomial kernel, the combinatorial structure of the base kernels to be combined allows the implementation of sampling from this distribution to run in $O(\log(d))$ time, making the total computational cost of the method to achieve an $ε$-optimal solution to be $O(\log(d)/ε^2)$, thereby allowing our method to operate for very large values of $d$. Experiments with simulated and real data confirm that the new algorithm is computationally more efficient than its state-of-the-art alternatives.