Miguel Navascues

Miguel Navascues, Costantino Budroni, Yelena Guryanova

In the context of epidemiology, policies for disease control are often devised through a mixture of intuition and brute-force, whereby the set of logically conceivable policies is narrowed down to a small family described by a few parameters, following which linearization or grid search is used to identify the optimal policy within the set. This scheme runs the risk of leaving out more complex (and perhaps counter-intuitive) policies for disease control that could tackle the disease more efficiently. In this article, we use techniques from convex optimization theory and machine learning to conduct optimizations over disease policies described by hundreds of parameters. In contrast to past approaches for policy optimization based on control theory, our framework can deal with arbitrary uncertainties on the initial conditions and model parameters controlling the spread of the disease, and stochastic models. In addition, our methods allow for optimization over policies which remain constant over weekly periods, specified by either continuous or discrete (e.g.: lockdown on/off) government measures. We illustrate our approach by minimizing the total time required to eradicate COVID-19 within the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model proposed by Kissler \emph{et al.} (March, 2020).

Elie Wolfe, Alejandro Pozas-Kerstjens, Matan Grinberg et al.

Causality is a seminal concept in science: Any research discipline, from sociology and medicine to physics and chemistry, aims at understanding the causes that could explain the correlations observed among some measured variables. While several methods exist to characterize classical causal models, no general construction is known for the quantum case. In this work, we present quantum inflation, a systematic technique to falsify if a given quantum causal model is compatible with some observed correlations. We demonstrate the power of the technique by reproducing known results and solving open problems for some paradigmatic examples of causal networks. Our results may find applications in many fields: from the characterization of correlations in quantum networks to the study of quantum effects in thermodynamic and biological processes.

Miguel Navascues, Elie Wolfe

The causal compatibility question asks whether a given causal structure graph -- possibly involving latent variables -- constitutes a genuinely plausible causal explanation for a given probability distribution over the graph's observed variables. Algorithms predicated on merely necessary constraints for causal compatibility typically suffer from false negatives, i.e. they admit incompatible distributions as apparently compatible with the given graph. In [arXiv:1609.00672], one of us introduced the inflation technique for formulating useful relaxations of the causal compatibility problem in terms of linear programming. In this work, we develop a formal hierarchy of such causal compatibility relaxations. We prove that inflation is asymptotically tight, i.e., that the hierarchy converges to a zero-error test for causal compatibility. In this sense, the inflation technique fulfills a longstanding desideratum in the field of causal inference. We quantify the rate of convergence by showing that any distribution which passes the $n^{th}$-order inflation test must be $O\left(n^{-1/2}\right)$-close in Euclidean norm to some distribution genuinely compatible with the given causal structure. Furthermore, we show that for many causal structures, the (unrelaxed) causal compatibility problem is faithfully formulated already by either the first or second order inflation test.