Tim Pearce

Tim Pearce, Tabish Rashid, Anssi Kanervisto et al.

Diffusion models have emerged as powerful generative models in the text-to-image domain. This paper studies their application as observation-to-action models for imitating human behaviour in sequential environments. Human behaviour is stochastic and multimodal, with structured correlations between action dimensions. Meanwhile, standard modelling choices in behaviour cloning are limited in their expressiveness and may introduce bias into the cloned policy. We begin by pointing out the limitations of these choices. We then propose that diffusion models are an excellent fit for imitating human behaviour, since they learn an expressive distribution over the joint action space. We introduce several innovations to make diffusion models suitable for sequential environments; designing suitable architectures, investigating the role of guidance, and developing reliable sampling strategies. Experimentally, diffusion models closely match human demonstrations in a simulated robotic control task and a modern 3D gaming environment.

Fanqi Lin, Shiyu Huang, Tim Pearce et al.

Multi-agent football poses an unsolved challenge in AI research. Existing work has focused on tackling simplified scenarios of the game, or else leveraging expert demonstrations. In this paper, we develop a multi-agent system to play the full 11 vs. 11 game mode, without demonstrations. This game mode contains aspects that present major challenges to modern reinforcement learning algorithms; multi-agent coordination, long-term planning, and non-transitivity. To address these challenges, we present TiZero; a self-evolving, multi-agent system that learns from scratch. TiZero introduces several innovations, including adaptive curriculum learning, a novel self-play strategy, and an objective that optimizes the policies of multiple agents jointly. Experimentally, it outperforms previous systems by a large margin on the Google Research Football environment, increasing win rates by over 30%. To demonstrate the generality of TiZero's innovations, they are assessed on several environments beyond football; Overcooked, Multi-agent Particle-Environment, Tic-Tac-Toe and Connect-Four.

Tim Pearce, Jong-Hyeon Jeong, Yichen Jia et al.

This paper considers doing quantile regression on censored data using neural networks (NNs). This adds to the survival analysis toolkit by allowing direct prediction of the target variable, along with a distribution-free characterisation of uncertainty, using a flexible function approximator. We begin by showing how an algorithm popular in linear models can be applied to NNs. However, the resulting procedure is inefficient, requiring sequential optimisation of an individual NN at each desired quantile. Our major contribution is a novel algorithm that simultaneously optimises a grid of quantiles output by a single NN. To offer theoretical insight into our algorithm, we show firstly that it can be interpreted as a form of expectation-maximisation, and secondly that it exhibits a desirable `self-correcting' property. Experimentally, the algorithm produces quantiles that are better calibrated than existing methods on 10 out of 12 real datasets.

Eloi Alonso, Adam Jelley, Vincent Micheli et al.

World models constitute a promising approach for training reinforcement learning agents in a safe and sample-efficient manner. Recent world models predominantly operate on sequences of discrete latent variables to model environment dynamics. However, this compression into a compact discrete representation may ignore visual details that are important for reinforcement learning. Concurrently, diffusion models have become a dominant approach for image generation, challenging well-established methods modeling discrete latents. Motivated by this paradigm shift, we introduce DIAMOND (DIffusion As a Model Of eNvironment Dreams), a reinforcement learning agent trained in a diffusion world model. We analyze the key design choices that are required to make diffusion suitable for world modeling, and demonstrate how improved visual details can lead to improved agent performance. DIAMOND achieves a mean human normalized score of 1.46 on the competitive Atari 100k benchmark; a new best for agents trained entirely within a world model. We further demonstrate that DIAMOND's diffusion world model can stand alone as an interactive neural game engine by training on static Counter-Strike: Global Offensive gameplay. To foster future research on diffusion for world modeling, we release our code, agents, videos and playable world models at https://diamond-wm.github.io.

Russell Tsuchida, Tim Pearce, Chris van der Heide et al.

Analysing and computing with Gaussian processes arising from infinitely wide neural networks has recently seen a resurgence in popularity. Despite this, many explicit covariance functions of networks with activation functions used in modern networks remain unknown. Furthermore, while the kernels of deep networks can be computed iteratively, theoretical understanding of deep kernels is lacking, particularly with respect to fixed-point dynamics. Firstly, we derive the covariance functions of multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) with exponential linear units (ELU) and Gaussian error linear units (GELU) and evaluate the performance of the limiting Gaussian processes on some benchmarks. Secondly, and more generally, we analyse the fixed-point dynamics of iterated kernels corresponding to a broad range of activation functions. We find that unlike some previously studied neural network kernels, these new kernels exhibit non-trivial fixed-point dynamics which are mirrored in finite-width neural networks. The fixed point behaviour present in some networks explains a mechanism for implicit regularisation in overparameterised deep models. Our results relate to both the static iid parameter conjugate kernel and the dynamic neural tangent kernel constructions. Software at github.com/RussellTsuchida/ELU_GELU_kernels.

Tianjiao Luo, Tim Pearce, Huayu Chen et al.

Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning (GAIL) trains a generative policy to mimic a demonstrator. It uses on-policy Reinforcement Learning (RL) to optimize a reward signal derived from a GAN-like discriminator. A major drawback of GAIL is its training instability - it inherits the complex training dynamics of GANs, and the distribution shift introduced by RL. This can cause oscillations during training, harming its sample efficiency and final policy performance. Recent work has shown that control theory can help with the convergence of a GAN's training. This paper extends this line of work, conducting a control-theoretic analysis of GAIL and deriving a novel controller that not only pushes GAIL to the desired equilibrium but also achieves asymptotic stability in a 'one-step' setting. Based on this, we propose a practical algorithm 'Controlled-GAIL' (C-GAIL). On MuJoCo tasks, our controlled variant is able to speed up the rate of convergence, reduce the range of oscillation and match the expert's distribution more closely both for vanilla GAIL and GAIL-DAC.

Chuheng Zhang, Tim Pearce, Pushi Zhang et al. · tsinghua

Latent action models (LAMs) aim to learn action-relevant changes from unlabeled videos by compressing changes between frames as latents. However, differences between video frames can be caused by controllable changes as well as exogenous noise, leading to an important concern -- do latents capture the changes caused by actions or irrelevant noise? This paper studies this issue analytically, presenting a linear model that encapsulates the essence of LAM learning, while being tractable.This provides several insights, including connections between LAM and principal component analysis (PCA), desiderata of the data-generating policy, and justification of strategies to encourage learning controllable changes using data augmentation, data cleaning, and auxiliary action-prediction. We also provide illustrative results based on numerical simulation, shedding light on the specific structure of observations, actions, and noise in data that influence LAM learning.

Bang Xiang Yong, Tim Pearce, Alexandra Brintrup

After an autoencoder (AE) has learnt to reconstruct one dataset, it might be expected that the likelihood on an out-of-distribution (OOD) input would be low. This has been studied as an approach to detect OOD inputs. Recent work showed this intuitive approach can fail for the dataset pairs FashionMNIST vs MNIST. This paper suggests this is due to the use of Bernoulli likelihood and analyses why this is the case, proposing two fixes: 1) Compute the uncertainty of likelihood estimate by using a Bayesian version of the AE. 2) Use alternative distributions to model the likelihood.

Tim Pearce, Alexandra Brintrup, Jun Zhu

It is often remarked that neural networks fail to increase their uncertainty when predicting on data far from the training distribution. Yet naively using softmax confidence as a proxy for uncertainty achieves modest success in tasks exclusively testing for this, e.g., out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. This paper investigates this contradiction, identifying two implicit biases that do encourage softmax confidence to correlate with epistemic uncertainty: 1) Approximately optimal decision boundary structure, and 2) Filtering effects of deep networks. It describes why low-dimensional intuitions about softmax confidence are misleading. Diagnostic experiments quantify reasons softmax confidence can fail, finding that extrapolations are less to blame than overlap between training and OOD data in final-layer representations. Pre-trained/fine-tuned networks reduce this overlap.

Tim Pearce, Jun Zhu

This paper describes an AI agent that plays the popular first-person-shooter (FPS) video game `Counter-Strike; Global Offensive' (CSGO) from pixel input. The agent, a deep neural network, matches the performance of the medium difficulty built-in AI on the deathmatch game mode, whilst adopting a humanlike play style. Unlike much prior work in games, no API is available for CSGO, so algorithms must train and run in real-time. This limits the quantity of on-policy data that can be generated, precluding many reinforcement learning algorithms. Our solution uses behavioural cloning - training on a large noisy dataset scraped from human play on online servers (4 million frames, comparable in size to ImageNet), and a smaller dataset of high-quality expert demonstrations. This scale is an order of magnitude larger than prior work on imitation learning in FPS games.

Tim Pearce, Andrew Y. K. Foong, Alexandra Brintrup

Selection of an architectural prior well suited to a task (e.g. convolutions for image data) is crucial to the success of deep neural networks (NNs). Conversely, the weight priors within these architectures are typically left vague, e.g.~independent Gaussian distributions, which has led to debate over the utility of Bayesian deep learning. This paper explores the benefits of adding structure to weight priors. It initially considers first-layer filters of a convolutional NN, designing a prior based on random Gabor filters. Second, it considers adding structure to the prior of final-layer weights by estimating how each hidden feature relates to each class. Empirical results suggest that these structured weight priors lead to more meaningful functional priors for image data. This contributes to the ongoing discussion on the importance of weight priors.

Tim Pearce, Russell Tsuchida, Mohamed Zaki et al.

A simple, flexible approach to creating expressive priors in Gaussian process (GP) models makes new kernels from a combination of basic kernels, e.g. summing a periodic and linear kernel can capture seasonal variation with a long term trend. Despite a well-studied link between GPs and Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), the BNN analogue of this has not yet been explored. This paper derives BNN architectures mirroring such kernel combinations. Furthermore, it shows how BNNs can produce periodic kernels, which are often useful in this context. These ideas provide a principled approach to designing BNNs that incorporate prior knowledge about a function. We showcase the practical value of these ideas with illustrative experiments in supervised and reinforcement learning settings.

Tim Pearce, Mohamed Zaki, Andy Neely

Ensembles of neural networks (NNs) have long been used to estimate predictive uncertainty; a small number of NNs are trained from different initialisations and sometimes on differing versions of the dataset. The variance of the ensemble's predictions is interpreted as its epistemic uncertainty. The appeal of ensembling stems from being a collection of regular NNs - this makes them both scalable and easily implementable. They have achieved strong empirical results in recent years, often presented as a practical alternative to more costly Bayesian NNs (BNNs). The departure from Bayesian methodology is of concern since the Bayesian framework provides a principled, widely-accepted approach to handling uncertainty. In this extended abstract we derive and implement a modified NN ensembling scheme, which provides a consistent estimator of the Bayesian posterior in wide NNs - regularising parameters about values drawn from a prior distribution.

Tim Pearce, Felix Leibfried, Alexandra Brintrup et al.

Understanding the uncertainty of a neural network's (NN) predictions is essential for many purposes. The Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to this, however applying it to NNs is challenging due to large numbers of parameters and data. Ensembling NNs provides an easily implementable, scalable method for uncertainty quantification, however, it has been criticised for not being Bayesian. This work proposes one modification to the usual process that we argue does result in approximate Bayesian inference; regularising parameters about values drawn from a distribution which can be set equal to the prior. A theoretical analysis of the procedure in a simplified setting suggests the recovered posterior is centred correctly but tends to have an underestimated marginal variance, and overestimated correlation. However, two conditions can lead to exact recovery. We argue that these conditions are partially present in NNs. Empirical evaluations demonstrate it has an advantage over standard ensembling, and is competitive with variational methods.

Tim Pearce, Nicolas Anastassacos, Mohamed Zaki et al.

The use of ensembles of neural networks (NNs) for the quantification of predictive uncertainty is widespread. However, the current justification is intuitive rather than analytical. This work proposes one minor modification to the normal ensembling methodology, which we prove allows the ensemble to perform Bayesian inference, hence converging to the corresponding Gaussian Process as both the total number of NNs, and the size of each, tend to infinity. This working paper provides early-stage results in a reinforcement learning setting, analysing the practicality of the technique for an ensemble of small, finite number. Using the uncertainty estimates produced by anchored ensembles to govern the exploration-exploitation process results in steadier, more stable learning.

Tim Pearce, Mohamed Zaki, Alexandra Brintrup et al.

This paper considers the generation of prediction intervals (PIs) by neural networks for quantifying uncertainty in regression tasks. It is axiomatic that high-quality PIs should be as narrow as possible, whilst capturing a specified portion of data. We derive a loss function directly from this axiom that requires no distributional assumption. We show how its form derives from a likelihood principle, that it can be used with gradient descent, and that model uncertainty is accounted for in ensembled form. Benchmark experiments show the method outperforms current state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification methods, reducing average PI width by over 10%.