Qingsong Wen

Rongyao Cai, Yuxi Wan, Kexin Zhang et al.

Diffusion models learn data distributions indirectly through denoising, making the difficulty of generative modeling closely tied to the dependency structure of data. For time series, strong temporal dependence forces the noise / score estimator to recover highly entangled cross-time relationships, leading to the curse of entanglement. We mitigate this burden by changing the topology of the diffusion space: the Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) decomposes temporal dependencies into spectral modes, diagonalizing second-order dependency structure and better aligning the data manifold with isotropic Gaussian noise and homogeneous diffusion dynamics. However, existing frequency-aware diffusion methods mainly use the DFT to design estimator blocks under temporal DDPM/SDE frameworks, while frequency-native diffusion paths face a mathematical barrier from complex-valued dynamics. We propose PaCoDi (Parallel Complex Diffusion), a frequency-native diffusion framework that constructs the diffusion path in the spectral domain while replacing the complex-valued estimator with parallel real-valued estimators for real and imaginary components. Theoretically, we prove the statistical orthogonality of spectral Gaussian noise, establish quadrature forward transitions and conditional reverse factorization, and extend discrete PaCoDi to continuous-time spectral SDEs through a Spectral Wiener Process. We further introduce a Mean Field Theory approximation with an Interactive Correction Branch to handle marginal coupling, and exploit Hermitian symmetry to reduce 50% attention FLOPs without information loss. Extensive experiments on unconditional and conditional time series generation demonstrate superior generative quality and computational efficiency against 5 SOTA baselines in 5 benchmarks, respectively. Code is available at https://github.com/RongyaoCai/PaCoDi.

Shikai Fang, Qingsong Wen, Yingtao Luo et al. · cmu

In real-world scenarios like traffic and energy, massive time-series data with missing values and noises are widely observed, even sampled irregularly. While many imputation methods have been proposed, most of them work with a local horizon, which means models are trained by splitting the long sequence into batches of fit-sized patches. This local horizon can make models ignore global trends or periodic patterns. More importantly, almost all methods assume the observations are sampled at regular time stamps, and fail to handle complex irregular sampled time series arising from different applications. Thirdly, most existing methods are learned in an offline manner. Thus, it is not suitable for many applications with fast-arriving streaming data. To overcome these limitations, we propose BayOTIDE: Bayesian Online Multivariate Time series Imputation with functional decomposition. We treat the multivariate time series as the weighted combination of groups of low-rank temporal factors with different patterns. We apply a group of Gaussian Processes (GPs) with different kernels as functional priors to fit the factors. For computational efficiency, we further convert the GPs into a state-space prior by constructing an equivalent stochastic differential equation (SDE), and developing a scalable algorithm for online inference. The proposed method can not only handle imputation over arbitrary time stamps, but also offer uncertainty quantification and interpretability for the downstream application. We evaluate our method on both synthetic and real-world datasets.We release the code at {https://github.com/xuangu-fang/BayOTIDE}

Yi-Fan Zhang, Qingsong Wen, Xue Wang et al.

Online updating of time series forecasting models aims to address the concept drifting problem by efficiently updating forecasting models based on streaming data. Many algorithms are designed for online time series forecasting, with some exploiting cross-variable dependency while others assume independence among variables. Given every data assumption has its own pros and cons in online time series modeling, we propose \textbf{On}line \textbf{e}nsembling \textbf{Net}work (OneNet). It dynamically updates and combines two models, with one focusing on modeling the dependency across the time dimension and the other on cross-variate dependency. Our method incorporates a reinforcement learning-based approach into the traditional online convex programming framework, allowing for the linear combination of the two models with dynamically adjusted weights. OneNet addresses the main shortcoming of classical online learning methods that tend to be slow in adapting to the concept drift. Empirical results show that OneNet reduces online forecasting error by more than $\mathbf{50\%}$ compared to the State-Of-The-Art (SOTA) method. The code is available at \url{https://github.com/yfzhang114/OneNet}.

Yuxuan Liang, Yutong Xia, Songyu Ke et al.

Air pollution is a crucial issue affecting human health and livelihoods, as well as one of the barriers to economic and social growth. Forecasting air quality has become an increasingly important endeavor with significant social impacts, especially in emerging countries like China. In this paper, we present a novel Transformer architecture termed AirFormer to collectively predict nationwide air quality in China, with an unprecedented fine spatial granularity covering thousands of locations. AirFormer decouples the learning process into two stages -- 1) a bottom-up deterministic stage that contains two new types of self-attention mechanisms to efficiently learn spatio-temporal representations; 2) a top-down stochastic stage with latent variables to capture the intrinsic uncertainty of air quality data. We evaluate AirFormer with 4-year data from 1,085 stations in the Chinese Mainland. Compared to the state-of-the-art model, AirFormer reduces prediction errors by 5%~8% on 72-hour future predictions. Our source code is available at https://github.com/yoshall/airformer.

Tian Zhou, Ziqing Ma, Xue wang et al.

Recent studies have shown that deep learning models such as RNNs and Transformers have brought significant performance gains for long-term forecasting of time series because they effectively utilize historical information. We found, however, that there is still great room for improvement in how to preserve historical information in neural networks while avoiding overfitting to noise presented in the history. Addressing this allows better utilization of the capabilities of deep learning models. To this end, we design a \textbf{F}requency \textbf{i}mproved \textbf{L}egendre \textbf{M}emory model, or {\bf FiLM}: it applies Legendre Polynomials projections to approximate historical information, uses Fourier projection to remove noise, and adds a low-rank approximation to speed up computation. Our empirical studies show that the proposed FiLM significantly improves the accuracy of state-of-the-art models in multivariate and univariate long-term forecasting by (\textbf{20.3\%}, \textbf{22.6\%}), respectively. We also demonstrate that the representation module developed in this work can be used as a general plug-in to improve the long-term prediction performance of other deep learning modules. Code is available at https://github.com/tianzhou2011/FiLM/

Yiyuan Yang, Chaoli Zhang, Tian Zhou et al.

Time series anomaly detection is critical for a wide range of applications. It aims to identify deviant samples from the normal sample distribution in time series. The most fundamental challenge for this task is to learn a representation map that enables effective discrimination of anomalies. Reconstruction-based methods still dominate, but the representation learning with anomalies might hurt the performance with its large abnormal loss. On the other hand, contrastive learning aims to find a representation that can clearly distinguish any instance from the others, which can bring a more natural and promising representation for time series anomaly detection. In this paper, we propose DCdetector, a multi-scale dual attention contrastive representation learning model. DCdetector utilizes a novel dual attention asymmetric design to create the permutated environment and pure contrastive loss to guide the learning process, thus learning a permutation invariant representation with superior discrimination abilities. Extensive experiments show that DCdetector achieves state-of-the-art results on multiple time series anomaly detection benchmark datasets. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/DAMO-DI-ML/KDD2023-DCdetector.

Siqiao Xue, Xiaoming Shi, Zhixuan Chu et al.

Continuous-time event sequences play a vital role in real-world domains such as healthcare, finance, online shopping, social networks, and so on. To model such data, temporal point processes (TPPs) have emerged as the most natural and competitive models, making a significant impact in both academic and application communities. Despite the emergence of many powerful models in recent years, there hasn't been a central benchmark for these models and future research endeavors. This lack of standardization impedes researchers and practitioners from comparing methods and reproducing results, potentially slowing down progress in this field. In this paper, we present EasyTPP, the first central repository of research assets (e.g., data, models, evaluation programs, documentations) in the area of event sequence modeling. Our EasyTPP makes several unique contributions to this area: a unified interface of using existing datasets and adding new datasets; a wide range of evaluation programs that are easy to use and extend as well as facilitate reproducible research; implementations of popular neural TPPs, together with a rich library of modules by composing which one could quickly build complex models. All the data and implementation can be found at https://github.com/ant-research/EasyTemporalPointProcess. We will actively maintain this benchmark and welcome contributions from other researchers and practitioners. Our benchmark will help promote reproducible research in this field, thus accelerating research progress as well as making more significant real-world impacts.

Xuanwang Zhang, Yunze Song, Yidong Wang et al. · pku

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate human-level capabilities in dialogue, reasoning, and knowledge retention. However, even the most advanced LLMs face challenges such as hallucinations and real-time updating of their knowledge. Current research addresses this bottleneck by equipping LLMs with external knowledge, a technique known as Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG). However, two key issues constrained the development of RAG. First, there is a growing lack of comprehensive and fair comparisons between novel RAG algorithms. Second, open-source tools such as LlamaIndex and LangChain employ high-level abstractions, which results in a lack of transparency and limits the ability to develop novel algorithms and evaluation metrics. To close this gap, we introduce RAGLAB, a modular and research-oriented open-source library. RAGLAB reproduces 6 existing algorithms and provides a comprehensive ecosystem for investigating RAG algorithms. Leveraging RAGLAB, we conduct a fair comparison of 6 RAG algorithms across 10 benchmarks. With RAGLAB, researchers can efficiently compare the performance of various algorithms and develop novel algorithms.

Chaoli Zhang, Tian Zhou, Qingsong Wen et al.

Time series anomaly detection is a challenging problem due to the complex temporal dependencies and the limited label data. Although some algorithms including both traditional and deep models have been proposed, most of them mainly focus on time-domain modeling, and do not fully utilize the information in the frequency domain of the time series data. In this paper, we propose a Time-Frequency analysis based time series Anomaly Detection model, or TFAD for short, to exploit both time and frequency domains for performance improvement. Besides, we incorporate time series decomposition and data augmentation mechanisms in the designed time-frequency architecture to further boost the abilities of performance and interpretability. Empirical studies on widely used benchmark datasets show that our approach obtains state-of-the-art performance in univariate and multivariate time series anomaly detection tasks. Code is provided at https://github.com/DAMO-DI-ML/CIKM22-TFAD.

Kaiwen Luo, Liang Lin, Yibo Zhang et al.

Although Audio Large Language Models (ALLMs) have witnessed substantial advancements, their long audio understanding capabilities remain unexplored. A plethora of benchmarks have been proposed for general audio tasks, they predominantly focus on short-form clips, leaving without a consensus on evaluating ALLMs over extended durations. This paper proposes ChronosAudio, the first multi-task benchmark tailored for long-audio understanding in ALLMs. It encompasses six major task categories and comprises 36,000 test instances totaling over 200 hours audio, stratified into short, middle, and long-form categories to comprehensively evaluate length generalization. Extensive experiments on 16 state-of-the-art models using ChronosAudio yield three critical findings: 1.Precipitous Long-Context Collapse: ALLMs exhibit a severe inability to sustain performance, with the transition from short to long contexts triggering a staggering performance degradation of over 90% in specific tasks. 2.Structural Attention Dilution: Performance degradation stems from a fundamental failure in maintaining temporal locality; attention mechanisms suffer from significant diffusion in later sequences. 3.Restorative Ceiling of Mitigation: Current strategies only offer 50% recovery. These findings reveal significant challenges in long-audio, underscoring the urgent need for approaches to achieve robust, document-level audio reasoning.

Yibo Yan, Shen Wang, Jiahao Huo et al.

As the field of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) continues to evolve, their potential to revolutionize artificial intelligence is particularly promising, especially in addressing mathematical reasoning tasks. Current mathematical benchmarks predominantly focus on evaluating MLLMs' problem-solving ability, yet there is a crucial gap in addressing more complex scenarios such as error detection, for enhancing reasoning capability in complicated settings. To fill this gap, we formally formulate the new task: multimodal error detection, and introduce ErrorRadar, the first benchmark designed to assess MLLMs' capabilities in such a task. ErrorRadar evaluates two sub-tasks: error step identification and error categorization, providing a comprehensive framework for evaluating MLLMs' complex mathematical reasoning ability. It consists of 2,500 high-quality multimodal K-12 mathematical problems, collected from real-world student interactions in an educational organization, with rigorous annotation and rich metadata such as problem type and error category. Through extensive experiments, we evaluated both open-source and closed-source representative MLLMs, benchmarking their performance against educational expert evaluators. Results indicate significant challenges still remain, as GPT-4o with best performance is still around 10% behind human evaluation.

Yibo Yan, Haomin Wen, Siru Zhong et al.

Urban region profiling from web-sourced data is of utmost importance for urban planning and sustainable development. We are witnessing a rising trend of LLMs for various fields, especially dealing with multi-modal data research such as vision-language learning, where the text modality serves as a supplement information for the image. Since textual modality has never been introduced into modality combinations in urban region profiling, we aim to answer two fundamental questions in this paper: i) Can textual modality enhance urban region profiling? ii) and if so, in what ways and with regard to which aspects? To answer the questions, we leverage the power of Large Language Models (LLMs) and introduce the first-ever LLM-enhanced framework that integrates the knowledge of textual modality into urban imagery profiling, named LLM-enhanced Urban Region Profiling with Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining (UrbanCLIP). Specifically, it first generates a detailed textual description for each satellite image by an open-source Image-to-Text LLM. Then, the model is trained on the image-text pairs, seamlessly unifying natural language supervision for urban visual representation learning, jointly with contrastive loss and language modeling loss. Results on predicting three urban indicators in four major Chinese metropolises demonstrate its superior performance, with an average improvement of 6.1% on R^2 compared to the state-of-the-art methods. Our code and the image-language dataset will be released upon paper notification.

Ziling Liang, Xinping Yi, Qingsong Wen et al.

Whilst the vulnerability of graph neural networks (GNNs) to adversarial attacks poses a critical threat to graph representation learning, the understanding of the robust generalization behavior remains a fundamental challenge in the adversarial setting. Recently, PAC-Bayesian margin-based generalization analysis substantially advances this line of research by providing a flexible and data-dependent analytical framework. However, existing robust analyses often rely on isotropic Gaussian posteriors and control weight perturbations in the full parameter space, which limits the ability to capture heterogeneous parameter sensitivity yet hinges on hidden-width-dependent complexity terms, resulting in not-tight-enough generalization bounds. In this paper, we extend a recently proposed sensitivity-aware PAC-Bayesian framework from deep neural networks to message passing GNNs (MPGNNs) and derive a tighter robust generalization bound in the adversarial setting. Specifically, we first quantify how sensitive the perturbations across different parameter blocks are to the network outputs by deriving the output Jacobians with respect to the weight parameters. Exploiting the fact that these Jacobian matrices have rank at most $K$ in $K$-class graph classification, we then construct Jacobian-aligned sensitivity matrices and use anisotropic Gaussian posteriors with optimized covariances to upper bound the KL divergence in a tight way. Notably, by refining the spectral-norm dependence on the learned weights and reducing the leading dimension factor from hidden-width-dependent terms to the number of classes $K$, our analysis yields much tighter robust generalization guarantees for MPGNNs, thereby guiding their designs to enhance adversarial robustness.

Ming Jin, Huan Yee Koh, Qingsong Wen et al.

Time series are the primary data type used to record dynamic system measurements and generated in great volume by both physical sensors and online processes (virtual sensors). Time series analytics is therefore crucial to unlocking the wealth of information implicit in available data. With the recent advancements in graph neural networks (GNNs), there has been a surge in GNN-based approaches for time series analysis. These approaches can explicitly model inter-temporal and inter-variable relationships, which traditional and other deep neural network-based methods struggle to do. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of graph neural networks for time series analysis (GNN4TS), encompassing four fundamental dimensions: forecasting, classification, anomaly detection, and imputation. Our aim is to guide designers and practitioners to understand, build applications, and advance research of GNN4TS. At first, we provide a comprehensive task-oriented taxonomy of GNN4TS. Then, we present and discuss representative research works and introduce mainstream applications of GNN4TS. A comprehensive discussion of potential future research directions completes the survey. This survey, for the first time, brings together a vast array of knowledge on GNN-based time series research, highlighting foundations, practical applications, and opportunities of graph neural networks for time series analysis.

Kexin Zhang, Qingsong Wen, Chaoli Zhang et al.

Self-supervised learning (SSL) has recently achieved impressive performance on various time series tasks. The most prominent advantage of SSL is that it reduces the dependence on labeled data. Based on the pre-training and fine-tuning strategy, even a small amount of labeled data can achieve high performance. Compared with many published self-supervised surveys on computer vision and natural language processing, a comprehensive survey for time series SSL is still missing. To fill this gap, we review current state-of-the-art SSL methods for time series data in this article. To this end, we first comprehensively review existing surveys related to SSL and time series, and then provide a new taxonomy of existing time series SSL methods by summarizing them from three perspectives: generative-based, contrastive-based, and adversarial-based. These methods are further divided into ten subcategories with detailed reviews and discussions about their key intuitions, main frameworks, advantages and disadvantages. To facilitate the experiments and validation of time series SSL methods, we also summarize datasets commonly used in time series forecasting, classification, anomaly detection, and clustering tasks. Finally, we present the future directions of SSL for time series analysis.

Wentao Hu, Zhendong Chu, Yiming Zhang et al.

Retrieval-augmented LLM agents increasingly rely on curated skill banks: collections of reusable textual principles that guide decision making on complex tasks. Existing approaches typically expand these banks in an append-only fashion, continuously adding new skills without removing redundant, outdated, or harmful ones, resulting in inefficient and poorly curated repositories. In this paper, we formulate the skill bank curation as a constrained multi-objective problem: a desirable bank must be useful for the agent, diverse in its content, and provide good coverage of the query distribution. To this end, we introduce SkillBrew, a multi-objective curation framework that formalizes skill bank curation as Pareto-aware optimization under a utility constraint, and solves it via a bi-level propose-then-verify loop. We evaluate our approach on two public benchmarks. Our findings suggest that treating skill banks as objects of principled curation, rather than ever-growing append-only logs, is an important step toward building self-improving LLM agents.

Kun Yi, Qi Zhang, Wei Fan et al.

Recently, frequency transformation (FT) has been increasingly incorporated into deep learning models to significantly enhance state-of-the-art accuracy and efficiency in time series analysis. The advantages of FT, such as high efficiency and a global view, have been rapidly explored and exploited in various time series tasks and applications, demonstrating the promising potential of FT as a new deep learning paradigm for time series analysis. Despite the growing attention and the proliferation of research in this emerging field, there is currently a lack of a systematic review and in-depth analysis of deep learning-based time series models with FT. It is also unclear why FT can enhance time series analysis and what its limitations are in the field. To address these gaps, we present a comprehensive review that systematically investigates and summarizes the recent research advancements in deep learning-based time series analysis with FT. Specifically, we explore the primary approaches used in current models that incorporate FT, the types of neural networks that leverage FT, and the representative FT-equipped models in deep time series analysis. We propose a novel taxonomy to categorize the existing methods in this field, providing a structured overview of the diverse approaches employed in incorporating FT into deep learning models for time series analysis. Finally, we highlight the advantages and limitations of FT for time series modeling and identify potential future research directions that can further contribute to the community of time series analysis.

Chenxiao Yang, Qitian Wu, Qingsong Wen et al.

The goal of sequential event prediction is to estimate the next event based on a sequence of historical events, with applications to sequential recommendation, user behavior analysis and clinical treatment. In practice, the next-event prediction models are trained with sequential data collected at one time and need to generalize to newly arrived sequences in remote future, which requires models to handle temporal distribution shift from training to testing. In this paper, we first take a data-generating perspective to reveal a negative result that existing approaches with maximum likelihood estimation would fail for distribution shift due to the latent context confounder, i.e., the common cause for the historical events and the next event. Then we devise a new learning objective based on backdoor adjustment and further harness variational inference to make it tractable for sequence learning problems. On top of that, we propose a framework with hierarchical branching structures for learning context-specific representations. Comprehensive experiments on diverse tasks (e.g., sequential recommendation) demonstrate the effectiveness, applicability and scalability of our method with various off-the-shelf models as backbones.

Zhongzheng Qiao, Sheng Pan, Anni Wang et al.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are revolutionizing the forecasting landscape from specific dataset modeling to generalizable task evaluation. However, we contend that existing benchmarks exhibit common limitations in four dimensions: constrained data composition dominated by reused legacy sources, compromised data integrity lacking rigorous quality assurance, misaligned task formulations detached from real-world contexts, and rigid analysis perspectives that obscure generalizable insights. To bridge these gaps, we introduce TIME, a next-generation task-centric benchmark comprising 50 fresh datasets and 98 forecasting tasks, tailored for strict zero-shot TSFM evaluation free from data leakage. Integrating large language models and human expertise, we establish a rigorous human-in-the-loop benchmark construction pipeline to ensure high data integrity and redefine task formulation by aligning forecasting configurations with real-world operational requirements and variate predictability. Furthermore, we propose a novel pattern-level evaluation perspective that moves beyond traditional dataset-level evaluations based on static meta labels. By leveraging structural time series features to characterize intrinsic temporal properties, this approach offers generalizable insights into model capabilities across diverse patterns. We evaluate 12 representative TSFMs and establish a multi-granular leaderboard to facilitate in-depth analysis and visualized inspection. The leaderboard is available at https://huggingface.co/spaces/Real-TSF/TIME-leaderboard.

Haomin Wen, Youfang Lin, Yutong Xia et al.

Spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNN) have emerged as the dominant model for spatio-temporal graph (STG) forecasting. Despite their success, they fail to model intrinsic uncertainties within STG data, which cripples their practicality in downstream tasks for decision-making. To this end, this paper focuses on probabilistic STG forecasting, which is challenging due to the difficulty in modeling uncertainties and complex ST dependencies. In this study, we present the first attempt to generalize the popular denoising diffusion probabilistic models to STGs, leading to a novel non-autoregressive framework called DiffSTG, along with the first denoising network UGnet for STG in the framework. Our approach combines the spatio-temporal learning capabilities of STGNNs with the uncertainty measurements of diffusion models. Extensive experiments validate that DiffSTG reduces the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) by 4%-14%, and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) by 2%-7% over existing methods on three real-world datasets.

Yin Zhang, Jiaxuan Zhao, Zonghan Wu et al.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) frequently suffer from visual perception errors and hallucinations that compromise answer accuracy in complex reasoning tasks. Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) offers a promising solution by optimizing policies using answer correctness signals. Despite their effectiveness, prevailing RLVR methods face two critical limitations. First, much of the sampling budget is wasted on trajectories doomed to fail due to early visual description errors. Second, sparse rewards cannot distinguish whether failures stem from visual perception or reasoning stages. We introduce MIRL, a decoupled framework that addresses both limitations by leveraging mutual information (MI) between generated descriptions and visual inputs as a cheap pre-screening signal. This enables intelligent budget allocation toward high-potential trajectories via forking, while decoupled training provides independent MI-based rewards for visual perception optimization, resolving reward blindness. Experiments on six vision-language reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that MIRL achieves 70.22% average accuracy and successfully surpasses the performance of sampling 16 complete trajectories using only 10 pre-samples with top-6 selection (25% fewer complete trajectories). Our code is available at: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/mirl-main/.

Dalin Qin, Yehui Li, Weiqi Chen et al.

Complex distribution shifts are the main obstacle to achieving accurate long-term time series forecasting. Several efforts have been conducted to capture the distribution characteristics and propose adaptive normalization techniques to alleviate the influence of distribution shifts. However, these methods neglect the intricate distribution dynamics observed from various scales and the evolving functions of distribution dynamics and normalized mapping relationships. To this end, we propose a novel model-agnostic Evolving Multi-Scale Normalization (EvoMSN) framework to tackle the distribution shift problem. Flexible normalization and denormalization are proposed based on the multi-scale statistics prediction module and adaptive ensembling. An evolving optimization strategy is designed to update the forecasting model and statistics prediction module collaboratively to track the shifting distributions. We evaluate the effectiveness of EvoMSN in improving the performance of five mainstream forecasting methods on benchmark datasets and also show its superiority compared to existing advanced normalization and online learning approaches. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/qindalin/EvoMSN.

Ming Jin, Shiyu Wang, Lintao Ma et al.

Time series forecasting holds significant importance in many real-world dynamic systems and has been extensively studied. Unlike natural language process (NLP) and computer vision (CV), where a single large model can tackle multiple tasks, models for time series forecasting are often specialized, necessitating distinct designs for different tasks and applications. While pre-trained foundation models have made impressive strides in NLP and CV, their development in time series domains has been constrained by data sparsity. Recent studies have revealed that large language models (LLMs) possess robust pattern recognition and reasoning abilities over complex sequences of tokens. However, the challenge remains in effectively aligning the modalities of time series data and natural language to leverage these capabilities. In this work, we present Time-LLM, a reprogramming framework to repurpose LLMs for general time series forecasting with the backbone language models kept intact. We begin by reprogramming the input time series with text prototypes before feeding it into the frozen LLM to align the two modalities. To augment the LLM's ability to reason with time series data, we propose Prompt-as-Prefix (PaP), which enriches the input context and directs the transformation of reprogrammed input patches. The transformed time series patches from the LLM are finally projected to obtain the forecasts. Our comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that Time-LLM is a powerful time series learner that outperforms state-of-the-art, specialized forecasting models. Moreover, Time-LLM excels in both few-shot and zero-shot learning scenarios.

Yaxuan Kong, Qingren Yao, Yuqi Nie et al.

Time series data inform critical decisions across many real-world domains. While large language model (LLM) agents can analyze data through natural language and tools, it remains unclear whether they can conduct reliable time series analysis across multi-turn conversations. Existing benchmarks focus on single-step tasks such as forecasting and anomaly detection, overlooking practical workflows where user goals evolve, agents must build on prior analyses, and conclusions emerge from accumulated evidence. In this work, we introduce TimeSage-MT, a multi-turn benchmark for agentic time series reasoning with 240 tasks and 2,680 dialogue turns across 8 real-world domains, spanning basic exploration to decision-oriented analysis. TimeSage-MT is built through a reproducible pipeline that converts real-world time series data into multi-turn conversations with verifiable answers. It provides a unified evaluation protocol and public leaderboard for comparing time series agentic systems. To demonstrate the benchmark's utility, we evaluate frontier LLMs alongside TimeSage, a novel structured agent equipped with a comprehensive time series skill library. The results show sharp performance drops on decision-oriented tasks, driven by failures in memory, uncertainty handling, and domain-based decision making. TimeSage-MT exposes critical gaps in current agentic reasoning and provides a rigorous foundation for future development.

Guiyao Tie, Jiawen Shi, Dingjie Song et al.

Scientific research is being reshaped by AI systems that move beyond isolated assistance toward longer-horizon workflows spanning literature grounding, hypothesis generation, experimentation, validation, reporting, and revision. This shift marks a transition from task-level AI for science to workflow-level research automation. Yet current systems remain fragmented, differing in autonomy, domain scope, execution environment, validation mechanism, and human oversight, while still struggling with evidence preservation, reproducibility, weak-direction rejection, provenance tracking, cross-domain robustness, and accountable scientific closure. This survey examines these developments through AutoResearch, defined as the developmental spectrum of AI-powered scientific workflow automation. Within it, Vibe Research denotes the human-steered region of prompt-based assistance and human-verified execution, whereas emerging AI-led systems coordinate larger portions of the discovery loop without achieving robust autonomy. We analyze how research systems redistribute control, evidence, execution, validation, and accountability across workflows and organize the field around five workflow conditions: literature and research grounding; hypothesis formation and planning; experimentation and tool use; feedback, validation, and review; and reporting and knowledge communication. We further synthesize AI scientist systems, mixed-initiative co-research frameworks, benchmarks, domain deployments, and open-source infrastructures. Finally, we propose five evaluation dimensions--novelty, validity, impact, reliability, and provenance--and show that AutoResearch autonomy is domain-conditioned, being more credible in structured, executable, and rapidly verifiable settings but limited in embodied, delayed, heterogeneous, ethical, or institutionally accountable contexts.

Yi-Fan Zhang, Huanyu Zhang, Haochen Tian et al.

Comprehensive evaluation of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) has recently garnered widespread attention in the research community. However, we observe that existing benchmarks present several common barriers that make it difficult to measure the significant challenges that models face in the real world, including: 1) small data scale leads to a large performance variance; 2) reliance on model-based annotations results in restricted data quality; 3) insufficient task difficulty, especially caused by the limited image resolution. To tackle these issues, we introduce MME-RealWorld. Specifically, we collect more than $300$K images from public datasets and the Internet, filtering $13,366$ high-quality images for annotation. This involves the efforts of professional $25$ annotators and $7$ experts in MLLMs, contributing to $29,429$ question-answer pairs that cover $43$ subtasks across $5$ real-world scenarios, extremely challenging even for humans. As far as we know, MME-RealWorld is the largest manually annotated benchmark to date, featuring the highest resolution and a targeted focus on real-world applications. We further conduct a thorough evaluation involving $28$ prominent MLLMs, such as GPT-4o, Gemini 1.5 Pro, and Claude 3.5 Sonnet. Our results show that even the most advanced models struggle with our benchmarks, where none of them reach $60\%$ accuracy. The challenges of perceiving high-resolution images and understanding complex real-world scenarios remain urgent issues to be addressed. The data and evaluation code are released at https://mme-realworld.github.io/ .

Zhiqiang Zhou, Chaoli Zhang, Lingna Ma et al.

The existing resource allocation policy for application instances in Kubernetes cannot dynamically adjust according to the requirement of business, which would cause an enormous waste of resources during fluctuations. Moreover, the emergence of new cloud services puts higher resource management requirements. This paper discusses horizontal POD resources management in Alibaba Cloud Container Services with a newly deployed AI algorithm framework named AHPA -- the adaptive horizontal pod auto-scaling system. Based on a robust decomposition forecasting algorithm and performance training model, AHPA offers an optimal pod number adjustment plan that could reduce POD resources and maintain business stability. Since being deployed in April 2021, this system has expanded to multiple customer scenarios, including logistics, social networks, AI audio and video, e-commerce, etc. Compared with the previous algorithms, AHPA solves the elastic lag problem, increasing CPU usage by 10% and reducing resource cost by more than 20%. In addition, AHPA can automatically perform flexible planning according to the predicted business volume without manual intervention, significantly saving operation and maintenance costs.

Ming Jin, Qingsong Wen, Yuxuan Liang et al.

Temporal data, notably time series and spatio-temporal data, are prevalent in real-world applications. They capture dynamic system measurements and are produced in vast quantities by both physical and virtual sensors. Analyzing these data types is vital to harnessing the rich information they encompass and thus benefits a wide range of downstream tasks. Recent advances in large language and other foundational models have spurred increased use of these models in time series and spatio-temporal data mining. Such methodologies not only enable enhanced pattern recognition and reasoning across diverse domains but also lay the groundwork for artificial general intelligence capable of comprehending and processing common temporal data. In this survey, we offer a comprehensive and up-to-date review of large models tailored (or adapted) for time series and spatio-temporal data, spanning four key facets: data types, model categories, model scopes, and application areas/tasks. Our objective is to equip practitioners with the knowledge to develop applications and further research in this underexplored domain. We primarily categorize the existing literature into two major clusters: large models for time series analysis (LM4TS) and spatio-temporal data mining (LM4STD). On this basis, we further classify research based on model scopes (i.e., general vs. domain-specific) and application areas/tasks. We also provide a comprehensive collection of pertinent resources, including datasets, model assets, and useful tools, categorized by mainstream applications. This survey coalesces the latest strides in large model-centric research on time series and spatio-temporal data, underscoring the solid foundations, current advances, practical applications, abundant resources, and future research opportunities.

Hao Wang, Licheng Pan, Qingsong Wen et al.

Autocorrelation is a defining characteristic of time-series data, where each observation is statistically dependent on its predecessors. In the context of deep time-series forecasting, autocorrelation arises in both the input history and the label sequences, presenting two central research challenges: (1) designing neural architectures that model autocorrelation in history sequences, and (2) devising learning objectives that model autocorrelation in label sequences. Recent studies have made strides in tackling these challenges, but a systematic survey examining both aspects remains lacking. To bridge this gap, this paper provides a comprehensive review of deep time-series forecasting from the perspective of autocorrelation modeling. In contrast to existing surveys, this work makes two distinctive contributions. First, it proposes a novel taxonomy that encompasses recent literature on both model architectures and learning objectives -- whereas prior surveys neglect or inadequately discuss the latter aspect. Second, it offers a thorough analysis of the motivations, insights, and progression of the surveyed literature from a unified, autocorrelation-centric perspective, providing a holistic overview of the evolution of deep time-series forecasting. The full list of papers and resources is available at https://github.com/Master-PLC/Awesome-TSF-Papers.

Xiaoming Shi, Shiyu Wang, Yuqi Nie et al.

Deep learning for time series forecasting has seen significant advancements over the past decades. However, despite the success of large-scale pre-training in language and vision domains, pre-trained time series models remain limited in scale and operate at a high cost, hindering the development of larger capable forecasting models in real-world applications. In response, we introduce Time-MoE, a scalable and unified architecture designed to pre-train larger, more capable forecasting foundation models while reducing inference costs. By leveraging a sparse mixture-of-experts (MoE) design, Time-MoE enhances computational efficiency by activating only a subset of networks for each prediction, reducing computational load while maintaining high model capacity. This allows Time-MoE to scale effectively without a corresponding increase in inference costs. Time-MoE comprises a family of decoder-only transformer models that operate in an auto-regressive manner and support flexible forecasting horizons with varying input context lengths. We pre-trained these models on our newly introduced large-scale data Time-300B, which spans over 9 domains and encompassing over 300 billion time points. For the first time, we scaled a time series foundation model up to 2.4 billion parameters, achieving significantly improved forecasting precision. Our results validate the applicability of scaling laws for training tokens and model size in the context of time series forecasting. Compared to dense models with the same number of activated parameters or equivalent computation budgets, our models consistently outperform them by large margin. These advancements position Time-MoE as a state-of-the-art solution for tackling real-world time series forecasting challenges with superior capability, efficiency, and flexibility.

Hengbo Liu, Ziqing Ma, Linxiao Yang et al.

Accurate prediction of electric load is crucial in power grid planning and management. In this paper, we solve the electric load forecasting problem under extreme events such as scorching heats. One challenge for accurate forecasting is the lack of training samples under extreme conditions. Also load usually changes dramatically in these extreme conditions, which calls for interpretable model to make better decisions. In this paper, we propose a novel forecasting framework, named Self-adaptive Decomposed Interpretable framework~(SaDI), which ensembles long-term trend, short-term trend, and period modelings to capture temporal characteristics in different components. The external variable triggered loss is proposed for the imbalanced learning under extreme events. Furthermore, Generalized Additive Model (GAM) is employed in the framework for desirable interpretability. The experiments on both Central China electric load and public energy meters from buildings show that the proposed SaDI framework achieves average 22.14% improvement compared with the current state-of-the-art algorithms in forecasting under extreme events in terms of daily mean of normalized RMSE. Code, Public datasets, and Appendix are available at: https://doi.org/10.24433/CO.9696980.v1 .

Hanjun Luo, Yingbin Jin, Xinfeng Li et al.

The advancements of Large Language Models (LLMs) have spurred a growing interest in their application to Named Entity Recognition (NER) methods. However, existing datasets are primarily designed for traditional machine learning methods and are inadequate for LLM-based methods, in terms of corpus selection and overall dataset design logic. Moreover, the prevalent fixed and relatively coarse-grained entity categorization in existing datasets fails to adequately assess the superior generalization and contextual understanding capabilities of LLM-based methods, thereby hindering a comprehensive demonstration of their broad application prospects. To address these limitations, we propose DynamicNER, the first NER dataset designed for LLM-based methods with dynamic categorization, introducing various entity types and entity type lists for the same entity in different context, leveraging the generalization of LLM-based NER better. The dataset is also multilingual and multi-granular, covering 8 languages and 155 entity types, with corpora spanning a diverse range of domains. Furthermore, we introduce CascadeNER, a novel NER method based on a two-stage strategy and lightweight LLMs, achieving higher accuracy on fine-grained tasks while requiring fewer computational resources. Experiments show that DynamicNER serves as a robust and effective benchmark for LLM-based NER methods. Furthermore, we also conduct analysis for traditional methods and LLM-based methods on our dataset. Our code and dataset are openly available at https://github.com/Astarojth/DynamicNER.

Siru Zhong, Yiqiu Liu, Zhiqing Cui et al.

Deep time series models are vulnerable to noisy data ubiquitous in real-world applications. Existing robustness strategies either prune data or rely on costly prior quantification, failing to balance effectiveness and efficiency. In this paper, we introduce DropoutTS, a model-agnostic plugin that shifts the paradigm from "what" to learn to "how much" to learn. DropoutTS employs a Sample-Adaptive Dropout mechanism: leveraging spectral sparsity to efficiently quantify instance-level noise via reconstruction residuals, it dynamically calibrates model learning capacity by mapping noise to adaptive dropout rates - selectively suppressing spurious fluctuations while preserving fine-grained fidelity. Extensive experiments across diverse noise regimes and open benchmarks show DropoutTS consistently boosts superior backbones' performance, delivering advanced robustness with negligible parameter overhead and no architectural modifications. Our code is available at https://github.com/CityMind-Lab/DropoutTS.

Siqiao Xue, Fan Zhou, Yi Xu et al.

We present WeaverBird, an intelligent dialogue system designed specifically for the finance domain. Our system harnesses a large language model of GPT architecture that has been tuned using extensive corpora of finance-related text. As a result, our system possesses the capability to understand complex financial queries, such as "How should I manage my investments during inflation?", and provide informed responses. Furthermore, our system incorporates a local knowledge base and a search engine to retrieve relevant information. The final responses are conditioned on the search results and include proper citations to the sources, thus enjoying an enhanced credibility. Through a range of finance-related questions, we have demonstrated the superior performance of our system compared to other models. To experience our system firsthand, users can interact with our live demo at https://weaverbird.ttic.edu, as well as watch our 2-min video illustration at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yofgeqnlrMc.

Minqi Jiang, Chaochuan Hou, Ao Zheng et al.

Deep learning (DL) techniques have recently found success in anomaly detection (AD) across various fields such as finance, medical services, and cloud computing. However, most of the current research tends to view deep AD algorithms as a whole, without dissecting the contributions of individual design choices like loss functions and network architectures. This view tends to diminish the value of preliminary steps like data preprocessing, as more attention is given to newly designed loss functions, network architectures, and learning paradigms. In this paper, we aim to bridge this gap by asking two key questions: (i) Which design choices in deep AD methods are crucial for detecting anomalies? (ii) How can we automatically select the optimal design choices for a given AD dataset, instead of relying on generic, pre-existing solutions? To address these questions, we introduce ADGym, a platform specifically crafted for comprehensive evaluation and automatic selection of AD design elements in deep methods. Our extensive experiments reveal that relying solely on existing leading methods is not sufficient. In contrast, models developed using ADGym significantly surpass current state-of-the-art techniques.

Dingjie Song, Tianlong Xu, Yi-Fan Zhang et al.

Assessing student handwritten scratchwork is crucial for personalized educational feedback but presents unique challenges due to diverse handwriting, complex layouts, and varied problem-solving approaches. Existing educational NLP primarily focuses on textual responses and neglects the complexity and multimodality inherent in authentic handwritten scratchwork. Current multimodal large language models (MLLMs) excel at visual reasoning but typically adopt an "examinee perspective", prioritizing generating correct answers rather than diagnosing student errors. To bridge these gaps, we introduce ScratchMath, a novel benchmark specifically designed for explaining and classifying errors in authentic handwritten mathematics scratchwork. Our dataset comprises 1,720 mathematics samples from Chinese primary and middle school students, supporting two key tasks: Error Cause Explanation (ECE) and Error Cause Classification (ECC), with seven defined error types. The dataset is meticulously annotated through rigorous human-machine collaborative approaches involving multiple stages of expert labeling, review, and verification. We systematically evaluate 16 leading MLLMs on ScratchMath, revealing significant performance gaps relative to human experts, especially in visual recognition and logical reasoning. Proprietary models notably outperform open-source models, with large reasoning models showing strong potential for error explanation. All evaluation data and frameworks are publicly available to facilitate further research.

Feiyi Chen, Zhen Qin, Yingying Zhang et al.

Most of current anomaly detection models assume that the normal pattern remains same all the time. However, the normal patterns of Web services change dramatically and frequently. The model trained on old-distribution data is outdated after such changes. Retraining the whole model every time is expensive. Besides, at the beginning of normal pattern changes, there is not enough observation data from the new distribution. Retraining a large neural network model with limited data is vulnerable to overfitting. Thus, we propose a Light and Anti-overfitting Retraining Approach (LARA) for deep variational auto-encoder based time series anomaly detection methods (VAEs). This work aims to make three novel contributions: 1) the retraining process is formulated as a convex problem and can converge at a fast rate as well as prevent overfitting; 2) designing a ruminate block, which leverages the historical data without the need to store them; 3) mathematically proving that when fine-tuning the latent vector and reconstructed data, the linear formations can achieve the least adjusting errors between the ground truths and the fine-tuned ones. Moreover, we have performed many experiments to verify that retraining LARA with even 43 time slots of data from new distribution can result in its competitive F1 Score in comparison with the state-of-the-art anomaly detection models trained with sufficient data. Besides, we verify its light overhead.

Xiaomin Song, Qingsong Wen, Yan Li et al.

Dynamic time warping (DTW) is an effective dissimilarity measure in many time series applications. Despite its popularity, it is prone to noises and outliers, which leads to singularity problem and bias in the measurement. The time complexity of DTW is quadratic to the length of time series, making it inapplicable in real-time applications. In this paper, we propose a novel time series dissimilarity measure named RobustDTW to reduce the effects of noises and outliers. Specifically, the RobustDTW estimates the trend and optimizes the time warp in an alternating manner by utilizing our designed temporal graph trend filtering. To improve efficiency, we propose a multi-level framework that estimates the trend and the warp function at a lower resolution, and then repeatedly refines them at a higher resolution. Based on the proposed RobustDTW, we further extend it to periodicity detection and outlier time series detection. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the superior performance of RobustDTW compared to DTW variants in both outlier time series detection and periodicity detection.

Jingru Fei, Kun Yi, Alex Xing Wang et al.

Time series foundation models rely on large-scale pretraining over diverse datasets across domains, yet their heterogeneity in temporal patterns could hinder the effectiveness of training and learning transferable time series representations. Inspired a fundamental concept, normalized power spectral density (PSD) in signal processing, we assume harmonizing datasets via PSDs in the spectral domain could reduce mismatches and enhance pretraining. We then go beyond the direct intractable minimization optimization and innovatively reformulate it as a principled harmonization approach. Specifically, we propose Harmonizer, a module that reshapes spectral structures and implicitly harmonizing PSDs across datasets, which theoretically corresponds to a shared reparameterization of second-order temporal correlations. Our theoretical analysis further reveals token interactions with Harmonizer can be efficiently mediated by a compact set of resonators, motivating a HarmonicAttention design that performs self-attention in a low-dimensional interaction space. Then, we propose Olivia, a novel time series foundation model built upon these harmonization mechanisms. Extensive experiments on two large-scale benchmarks (TSLib and GIFT-Eval) and extra 6 datasets from GluonTS, demonstrate Olivia consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance under zero-shot, few-shot, and full-shot forecasting scenarios. Our code is available at \url{https://github.com/aikunyi/Olivia}.

Hanjun Luo, Yingbin Jin, Xinfeng Li et al.

The advancements of Large Language Models (LLMs) have spurred a growing interest in their application to Named Entity Recognition (NER) methods. However, existing datasets are primarily designed for traditional machine learning methods and are inadequate for LLM-based methods, in terms of corpus selection and overall dataset design logic. Moreover, the prevalent fixed and relatively coarse-grained entity categorization in existing datasets fails to adequately assess the superior generalization and contextual understanding capabilities of LLM-based methods, thereby hindering a comprehensive demonstration of their broad application prospects. To address these limitations, we propose DynamicNER, the first NER dataset designed for LLM-based methods with dynamic categorization, introducing various entity types and entity type lists for the same entity in different context, leveraging the generalization of LLM-based NER better. The dataset is also multilingual and multi-granular, covering 8 languages and 155 entity types, with corpora spanning a diverse range of domains. Furthermore, we introduce CascadeNER, a novel NER method based on a two-stage strategy and lightweight LLMs, achieving higher accuracy on fine-grained tasks while requiring fewer computational resources. Experiments show that DynamicNER serves as a robust and effective benchmark for LLM-based NER methods. Furthermore, we also conduct analysis for traditional methods and LLM-based methods on our dataset. Our code and dataset are openly available at https://github.com/Astarojth/DynamicNER.

Yaxuan Kong, Zepu Wang, Yuqi Nie et al.

Traditional recurrent neural network architectures, such as long short-term memory neural networks (LSTM), have historically held a prominent role in time series forecasting (TSF) tasks. While the recently introduced sLSTM for Natural Language Processing (NLP) introduces exponential gating and memory mixing that are beneficial for long term sequential learning, its potential short memory issue is a barrier to applying sLSTM directly in TSF. To address this, we propose a simple yet efficient algorithm named P-sLSTM, which is built upon sLSTM by incorporating patching and channel independence. These modifications substantially enhance sLSTM's performance in TSF, achieving state-of-the-art results. Furthermore, we provide theoretical justifications for our design, and conduct extensive comparative and analytical experiments to fully validate the efficiency and superior performance of our model.

Jin Wang, Liang Lin, Kaiwen Luo et al.

While Audio Large Language Models (ALLMs) have achieved remarkable progress in understanding and generation, their potential privacy implications remain largely unexplored. This paper takes the first step to investigate whether ALLMs inadvertently leak user privacy solely through acoustic voiceprints and introduces $\textit{HearSay}$, a comprehensive benchmark constructed from over 22,000 real-world audio clips. To ensure data quality, the benchmark is meticulously curated through a rigorous pipeline involving automated profiling and human verification, guaranteeing that all privacy labels are grounded in factual records. Extensive experiments on $\textit{HearSay}$ yield three critical findings: $\textbf{Significant Privacy Leakage}$: ALLMs inherently extract private attributes from voiceprints, reaching 92.89% accuracy on gender and effectively profiling social attributes. $\textbf{Insufficient Safety Mechanisms}$: Alarmingly, existing safeguards are severely inadequate; most models fail to refuse privacy-intruding requests, exhibiting near-zero refusal rates for physiological traits. $\textbf{Reasoning Amplifies Risk}$: Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning exacerbates privacy risks in capable models by uncovering deeper acoustic correlations. These findings expose critical vulnerabilities in ALLMs, underscoring the urgent need for targeted privacy alignment. The codes and dataset are available at https://github.com/JinWang79/HearSay_Benchmark

Qingsong Wen, Linxiao Yang, Liang Sun

Periodicity detection is an important task in time series analysis, but still a challenging problem due to the diverse characteristics of time series data like abrupt trend change, outlier, noise, and especially block missing data. In this paper, we propose a robust and effective periodicity detection algorithm for time series with block missing data. We first design a robust trend filter to remove the interference of complicated trend patterns under missing data. Then, we propose a robust autocorrelation function (ACF) that can handle missing values and outliers effectively. We rigorously prove that the proposed robust ACF can still work well when the length of the missing block is less than $1/3$ of the period length. Last, by combining the time-frequency information, our algorithm can generate the period length accurately. The experimental results demonstrate that our algorithm outperforms existing periodicity detection algorithms on real-world time series datasets.

Zhixian Wang, Qingsong Wen, Chaoli Zhang et al.

Energy (load, wind, photovoltaic) forecasting is significant in the power industry as it can provide a reference for subsequent tasks such as power grid dispatch, thus bringing huge economic benefits. However, there are many differences between energy forecasting and traditional time series forecasting. On the one hand, traditional time series mainly focus on capturing characteristics like trends and cycles. In contrast, the energy series is largely influenced by many external factors, such as meteorological and calendar variables. On the other hand, energy forecasting aims to minimize the cost of subsequent tasks such as power grid dispatch, rather than simply pursuing prediction accuracy. In addition, the scale of energy data can also significantly impact the predicted results. In this paper, we collected large-scale load datasets and released a new renewable energy dataset that contains both station-level and region-level renewable generation data with meteorological data. For load data, we also included load domain-specific feature engineering and provided a method to customize the loss function and link the forecasting error to requirements related to subsequent tasks (such as power grid dispatching costs), integrating it into our forecasting framework. Based on such a situation, we conducted extensive experiments with 21 forecasting methods in these energy datasets at different levels under 11 evaluation metrics, providing a comprehensive reference for researchers to compare different energy forecasting models.

Aoxiao Zhong, Dengyao Mo, Guiyang Liu et al.

Logs are ubiquitous digital footprints, playing an indispensable role in system diagnostics, security analysis, and performance optimization. The extraction of actionable insights from logs is critically dependent on the log parsing process, which converts raw logs into structured formats for downstream analysis. Yet, the complexities of contemporary systems and the dynamic nature of logs pose significant challenges to existing automatic parsing techniques. The emergence of Large Language Models (LLM) offers new horizons. With their expansive knowledge and contextual prowess, LLMs have been transformative across diverse applications. Building on this, we introduce LogParser-LLM, a novel log parser integrated with LLM capabilities. This union seamlessly blends semantic insights with statistical nuances, obviating the need for hyper-parameter tuning and labeled training data, while ensuring rapid adaptability through online parsing. Further deepening our exploration, we address the intricate challenge of parsing granularity, proposing a new metric and integrating human interactions to allow users to calibrate granularity to their specific needs. Our method's efficacy is empirically demonstrated through evaluations on the Loghub-2k and the large-scale LogPub benchmark. In evaluations on the LogPub benchmark, involving an average of 3.6 million logs per dataset across 14 datasets, our LogParser-LLM requires only 272.5 LLM invocations on average, achieving a 90.6% F1 score for grouping accuracy and an 81.1% for parsing accuracy. These results demonstrate the method's high efficiency and accuracy, outperforming current state-of-the-art log parsers, including pattern-based, neural network-based, and existing LLM-enhanced approaches.

Tian Zhou, Jianqing Zhu, Xue Wang et al.

Various deep learning models, especially some latest Transformer-based approaches, have greatly improved the state-of-art performance for long-term time series forecasting.However, those transformer-based models suffer a severe deterioration performance with prolonged input length, which prohibits them from using extended historical info.Moreover, these methods tend to handle complex examples in long-term forecasting with increased model complexity, which often leads to a significant increase in computation and less robustness in performance(e.g., overfitting). We propose a novel neural network architecture, called TreeDRNet, for more effective long-term forecasting. Inspired by robust regression, we introduce doubly residual link structure to make prediction more robust.Built upon Kolmogorov-Arnold representation theorem, we explicitly introduce feature selection, model ensemble, and a tree structure to further utilize the extended input sequence, which improves the robustness and representation power of TreeDRNet. Unlike previous deep models for sequential forecasting work, TreeDRNet is built entirely on multilayer perceptron and thus enjoys high computational efficiency. Our extensive empirical studies show that TreeDRNet is significantly more effective than state-of-the-art methods, reducing prediction errors by 20% to 40% for multivariate time series. In particular, TreeDRNet is over 10 times more efficient than transformer-based methods. The code will be released soon.

Hayes Bai, Yinyi Luo, Wenwen Wang et al.

Unified multimodal models (UMMs) aim to integrate understanding and generation within a single architecture. However, it remains underexplored how to effectively coordinate these two capabilities for more effective and efficient reasoning. Existing coordination approaches either perform coupling during training, without explicit inference-time coordination, or impose a fixed coordination pattern for all inputs. In this work, we show that multimodal tasks exhibit substantial coordination-path diversity: different inputs favor different coordination paths. This suggests that exploiting such diversity is key to improving performance. We propose UniPath, a framework for adaptively modeling and exploiting coordination-path diversity. Instead of enforcing a single coordination pattern, we represent task solving as the selection and execution of a path, ranging from direct answering to textual inference, visual-thought construction, and hypothesis-based exploration. We construct role-aligned trajectories to train a path-conditioned executor and introduce a lightweight planner mechanism to enable input-dependent path selection. Experiments show that leveraging coordination-path diversity improves performance over fixed coordination strategies while providing interpretable intermediate behaviors. The code is available at:https://github.com/AIFrontierLab/TorchUMM/tree/main/src/umm/post_training/unipath.

Miha Grabner, Yi Wang, Qingsong Wen et al.

Efficient load forecasting is needed to ensure better observability in the distribution networks, whereas such forecasting is made possible by an increasing number of smart meter installations. Because distribution networks include a large amount of different loads at various aggregation levels, such as individual consumers, transformer stations and feeders loads, it is impractical to develop individual (or so-called local) forecasting models for each load separately. Furthermore, such local models ignore the strong dependencies between different loads that might be present due to their spatial proximity and the characteristics of the distribution network. To address these issues, this paper proposes a global modeling approach based on deep learning for efficient forecasting of a large number of loads in distribution networks. In this way, the computational burden of training a large amount of local forecasting models can be largely reduced, and the cross-series information shared among different loads can be utilized. Additionally, an unsupervised localization mechanism and optimal ensemble construction strategy are also proposed to localize/personalize the forecasting model to different groups of loads and to improve the forecasting accuracy further. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on real-world smart meter data to demonstrate the superiority of the proposed approach compared to competing methods.

Zefan Wang, Zichuan Liu, Yingying Zhang et al.

Large language model (LLM) applications in cloud root cause analysis (RCA) have been actively explored recently. However, current methods are still reliant on manual workflow settings and do not unleash LLMs' decision-making and environment interaction capabilities. We present RCAgent, a tool-augmented LLM autonomous agent framework for practical and privacy-aware industrial RCA usage. Running on an internally deployed model rather than GPT families, RCAgent is capable of free-form data collection and comprehensive analysis with tools. Our framework combines a variety of enhancements, including a unique Self-Consistency for action trajectories, and a suite of methods for context management, stabilization, and importing domain knowledge. Our experiments show RCAgent's evident and consistent superiority over ReAct across all aspects of RCA -- predicting root causes, solutions, evidence, and responsibilities -- and tasks covered or uncovered by current rules, as validated by both automated metrics and human evaluations. Furthermore, RCAgent has already been integrated into the diagnosis and issue discovery workflow of the Real-time Compute Platform for Apache Flink of Alibaba Cloud.

Shengzhong Mao, Chaoli Zhang, Yichi Song et al.

Recent advancements in the collection and analysis of sequential educational data have brought time series analysis to a pivotal position in educational research, highlighting its essential role in facilitating data-driven decision-making. However, there is a lack of comprehensive summaries that consolidate these advancements. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to provide a comprehensive review of time series analysis techniques specifically within the educational context. We begin by exploring the landscape of educational data analytics, categorizing various data sources and types relevant to education. We then review four prominent time series methods-forecasting, classification, clustering, and anomaly detection-illustrating their specific application points in educational settings. Subsequently, we present a range of educational scenarios and applications, focusing on how these methods are employed to address diverse educational tasks, which highlights the practical integration of multiple time series methods to solve complex educational problems. Finally, we conclude with a discussion on future directions, including personalized learning analytics, multimodal data fusion, and the role of large language models (LLMs) in educational time series. The contributions of this paper include a detailed taxonomy of educational data, a synthesis of time series techniques with specific educational applications, and a forward-looking perspective on emerging trends and future research opportunities in educational analysis. The related papers and resources are available and regularly updated at the project page.