Alexei Sharpanskykh

Karim Aly, Alexei Sharpanskykh

The increasing adoption of synthetic data in aviation research offers a promising solution to data scarcity and confidentiality challenges. This study investigates the potential of generative models to produce realistic synthetic flight data and evaluates their quality through a comprehensive four-stage assessment framework. The need for synthetic flight data arises from their potential to serve as an alternative to confidential real-world records and to augment rare events in historical datasets. These enhanced datasets can then be used to train machine learning models that predict critical events, such as flight delays, cancellations, diversions, and turnaround times. Two generative models, Tabular Variational Autoencoder (TVAE) and Gaussian Copula (GC), are adapted to generate synthetic flight information and compared based on their ability to preserve statistical similarity, fidelity, diversity, and predictive utility. Results indicate that while GC achieves higher statistical similarity and fidelity, its computational cost hinders its applicability to large datasets. In contrast, TVAE efficiently handles large datasets and enables scalable synthetic data generation. The findings demonstrate that synthetic data can support flight delay prediction models with accuracy comparable to those trained on real data. These results pave the way for leveraging synthetic flight data to enhance predictive modeling in air transportation.

Karim Aly, Alexei Sharpanskykh, Jacco Hoekstra

Flight diversions are rare but high-impact events in aviation, making their reliable prediction vital for both safety and operational efficiency. However, their scarcity in historical records impedes the training of machine learning models utilised to predict them. This study addresses this scarcity gap by investigating how generative models can augment historical flight data with synthetic diversion records to enhance model training and improve predictive accuracy. We propose a multi-objective optimisation framework coupled with automated hyperparameter search to identify optimal configurations for three deep generative models: Tabular Variational Autoencoder (TVAE), Conditional Tabular Generative Adversarial Network (CTGAN), and CopulaGAN, with the Gaussian Copula (GC) model serving as a statistical baseline. The quality of the synthetic data was examined through a six-stage evaluation framework encompassing realism, diversity, operational validity, statistical similarity, fidelity, and predictive utility. Results show that the optimised models significantly outperform their non-optimised counterparts, and that synthetic augmentation substantially improves diversion prediction compared to models trained solely on real data. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of hyperparameter-optimised generative models for advancing predictive modelling of rare events in air transportation.

Luka Van de Sype, Matthieu Vert, Alexei Sharpanskykh et al.

The severity of natural disasters is increasing every year, impacting many people's lives. During the response phase of disasters, airports are important hubs where relief aid arrives and people need to be evacuated. However, the airport often forms a bottleneck in these relief operations due to the sudden need for increased capacity. Limited research has been done on the operational side of airport disaster management. Experts identify the main problems as, first, the asymmetry of information between the airport and incoming flights, and second, the lack of resources. The goal of this research is to understand the effects of incomplete knowledge of incoming flights with different resource allocation strategies on the performance of cargo handling operations at an airport after a natural disaster. An agent-based model is created, implementing realistic offloading strategies with different degrees of information uncertainty. Model calibration and verification are performed with experts in the field. The model performance is measured by the average turnaround time, which is divided into offloading time, boarding time, and cumulative waiting times. The results show that the effects of one unplanned aircraft are negligible. However, all waiting times increase with more arriving unplanned aircraft.