Tatiana Matejovicova

David Stutz, Abhijit Guha Roy, Tatiana Matejovicova et al. · deepmind

Conformal Prediction (CP) allows to perform rigorous uncertainty quantification by constructing a prediction set $C(X)$ satisfying $\mathbb{P}(Y \in C(X))\geq 1-α$ for a user-chosen $α\in [0,1]$ by relying on calibration data $(X_1,Y_1),...,(X_n,Y_n)$ from $\mathbb{P}=\mathbb{P}^{X} \otimes \mathbb{P}^{Y|X}$. It is typically implicitly assumed that $\mathbb{P}^{Y|X}$ is the "true" posterior label distribution. However, in many real-world scenarios, the labels $Y_1,...,Y_n$ are obtained by aggregating expert opinions using a voting procedure, resulting in a one-hot distribution $\mathbb{P}_{vote}^{Y|X}$. For such ``voted'' labels, CP guarantees are thus w.r.t. $\mathbb{P}_{vote}=\mathbb{P}^X \otimes \mathbb{P}_{vote}^{Y|X}$ rather than the true distribution $\mathbb{P}$. In cases with unambiguous ground truth labels, the distinction between $\mathbb{P}_{vote}$ and $\mathbb{P}$ is irrelevant. However, when experts do not agree because of ambiguous labels, approximating $\mathbb{P}^{Y|X}$ with a one-hot distribution $\mathbb{P}_{vote}^{Y|X}$ ignores this uncertainty. In this paper, we propose to leverage expert opinions to approximate $\mathbb{P}^{Y|X}$ using a non-degenerate distribution $\mathbb{P}_{agg}^{Y|X}$. We develop Monte Carlo CP procedures which provide guarantees w.r.t. $\mathbb{P}_{agg}=\mathbb{P}^X \otimes \mathbb{P}_{agg}^{Y|X}$ by sampling multiple synthetic pseudo-labels from $\mathbb{P}_{agg}^{Y|X}$ for each calibration example $X_1,...,X_n$. In a case study of skin condition classification with significant disagreement among expert annotators, we show that applying CP w.r.t. $\mathbb{P}_{vote}$ under-covers expert annotations: calibrated for $72\%$ coverage, it falls short by on average $10\%$; our Monte Carlo CP closes this gap both empirically and theoretically.

David Stutz, Ali Taylan Cemgil, Abhijit Guha Roy et al. · deepmind

For safety, medical AI systems undergo thorough evaluations before deployment, validating their predictions against a ground truth which is assumed to be fixed and certain. However, this ground truth is often curated in the form of differential diagnoses. While a single differential diagnosis reflects the uncertainty in one expert assessment, multiple experts introduce another layer of uncertainty through disagreement. Both forms of uncertainty are ignored in standard evaluation which aggregates these differential diagnoses to a single label. In this paper, we show that ignoring uncertainty leads to overly optimistic estimates of model performance, therefore underestimating risk associated with particular diagnostic decisions. To this end, we propose a statistical aggregation approach, where we infer a distribution on probabilities of underlying medical condition candidates themselves, based on observed annotations. This formulation naturally accounts for the potential disagreements between different experts, as well as uncertainty stemming from individual differential diagnoses, capturing the entire ground truth uncertainty. Our approach boils down to generating multiple samples of medical condition probabilities, then evaluating and averaging performance metrics based on these sampled probabilities. In skin condition classification, we find that a large portion of the dataset exhibits significant ground truth uncertainty and standard evaluation severely over-estimates performance without providing uncertainty estimates. In contrast, our framework provides uncertainty estimates on common metrics of interest such as top-k accuracy and average overlap, showing that performance can change multiple percentage points. We conclude that, while assuming a crisp ground truth can be acceptable for many AI applications, a more nuanced evaluation protocol should be utilized in medical diagnosis.

Gheorghe Comanici, Eric Bieber, Mike Schaekermann et al. · amazon-science, baidu

In this report, we introduce the Gemini 2.X model family: Gemini 2.5 Pro and Gemini 2.5 Flash, as well as our earlier Gemini 2.0 Flash and Flash-Lite models. Gemini 2.5 Pro is our most capable model yet, achieving SoTA performance on frontier coding and reasoning benchmarks. In addition to its incredible coding and reasoning skills, Gemini 2.5 Pro is a thinking model that excels at multimodal understanding and it is now able to process up to 3 hours of video content. Its unique combination of long context, multimodal and reasoning capabilities can be combined to unlock new agentic workflows. Gemini 2.5 Flash provides excellent reasoning abilities at a fraction of the compute and latency requirements and Gemini 2.0 Flash and Flash-Lite provide high performance at low latency and cost. Taken together, the Gemini 2.X model generation spans the full Pareto frontier of model capability vs cost, allowing users to explore the boundaries of what is possible with complex agentic problem solving.

Gemma Team, Aishwarya Kamath, Johan Ferret et al. · deepmind, mit

We introduce Gemma 3, a multimodal addition to the Gemma family of lightweight open models, ranging in scale from 1 to 27 billion parameters. This version introduces vision understanding abilities, a wider coverage of languages and longer context - at least 128K tokens. We also change the architecture of the model to reduce the KV-cache memory that tends to explode with long context. This is achieved by increasing the ratio of local to global attention layers, and keeping the span on local attention short. The Gemma 3 models are trained with distillation and achieve superior performance to Gemma 2 for both pre-trained and instruction finetuned versions. In particular, our novel post-training recipe significantly improves the math, chat, instruction-following and multilingual abilities, making Gemma3-4B-IT competitive with Gemma2-27B-IT and Gemma3-27B-IT comparable to Gemini-1.5-Pro across benchmarks. We release all our models to the community.

Viorica Pătrăucean, Lucas Smaira, Ankush Gupta et al.

We propose a novel multimodal video benchmark - the Perception Test - to evaluate the perception and reasoning skills of pre-trained multimodal models (e.g. Flamingo, SeViLA, or GPT-4). Compared to existing benchmarks that focus on computational tasks (e.g. classification, detection or tracking), the Perception Test focuses on skills (Memory, Abstraction, Physics, Semantics) and types of reasoning (descriptive, explanatory, predictive, counterfactual) across video, audio, and text modalities, to provide a comprehensive and efficient evaluation tool. The benchmark probes pre-trained models for their transfer capabilities, in a zero-shot / few-shot or limited finetuning regime. For these purposes, the Perception Test introduces 11.6k real-world videos, 23s average length, designed to show perceptually interesting situations, filmed by around 100 participants worldwide. The videos are densely annotated with six types of labels (multiple-choice and grounded video question-answers, object and point tracks, temporal action and sound segments), enabling both language and non-language evaluations. The fine-tuning and validation splits of the benchmark are publicly available (CC-BY license), in addition to a challenge server with a held-out test split. Human baseline results compared to state-of-the-art video QA models show a substantial gap in performance (91.4% vs 46.2%), suggesting that there is significant room for improvement in multimodal video understanding. Dataset, baseline code, and challenge server are available at https://github.com/deepmind/perception_test

Andrew Sellergren, Sahar Kazemzadeh, Tiam Jaroensri et al.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has significant potential in healthcare applications, but its training and deployment faces challenges due to healthcare's diverse data, complex tasks, and the need to preserve privacy. Foundation models that perform well on medical tasks and require less task-specific tuning data are critical to accelerate the development of healthcare AI applications. We introduce MedGemma, a collection of medical vision-language foundation models based on Gemma 3 4B and 27B. MedGemma demonstrates advanced medical understanding and reasoning on images and text, significantly exceeding the performance of similar-sized generative models and approaching the performance of task-specific models, while maintaining the general capabilities of the Gemma 3 base models. For out-of-distribution tasks, MedGemma achieves 2.6-10% improvement on medical multimodal question answering, 15.5-18.1% improvement on chest X-ray finding classification, and 10.8% improvement on agentic evaluations compared to the base models. Fine-tuning MedGemma further improves performance in subdomains, reducing errors in electronic health record information retrieval by 50% and reaching comparable performance to existing specialized state-of-the-art methods for pneumothorax classification and histopathology patch classification. We additionally introduce MedSigLIP, a medically-tuned vision encoder derived from SigLIP. MedSigLIP powers the visual understanding capabilities of MedGemma and as an encoder achieves comparable or better performance than specialized medical image encoders. Taken together, the MedGemma collection provides a strong foundation of medical image and text capabilities, with potential to significantly accelerate medical research and development of downstream applications. The MedGemma collection, including tutorials and model weights, can be found at https://goo.gle/medgemma.