Dustin Tingley

Vijay Janapa Reddi, Brian Plancher, Susan Kennedy et al.

Broadening access to both computational and educational resources is critical to diffusing machine-learning (ML) innovation. However, today, most ML resources and experts are siloed in a few countries and organizations. In this paper, we describe our pedagogical approach to increasing access to applied ML through a massive open online course (MOOC) on Tiny Machine Learning (TinyML). We suggest that TinyML, ML on resource-constrained embedded devices, is an attractive means to widen access because TinyML both leverages low-cost and globally accessible hardware, and encourages the development of complete, self-contained applications, from data collection to deployment. To this end, a collaboration between academia (Harvard University) and industry (Google) produced a four-part MOOC that provides application-oriented instruction on how to develop solutions using TinyML. The series is openly available on the edX MOOC platform, has no prerequisites beyond basic programming, and is designed for learners from a global variety of backgrounds. It introduces pupils to real-world applications, ML algorithms, data-set engineering, and the ethical considerations of these technologies via hands-on programming and deployment of TinyML applications in both the cloud and their own microcontrollers. To facilitate continued learning, community building, and collaboration beyond the courses, we launched a standalone website, a forum, a chat, and an optional course-project competition. We also released the course materials publicly, hoping they will inspire the next generation of ML practitioners and educators and further broaden access to cutting-edge ML technologies.

Ilia Rushkin, Isaac Chuang, Dustin Tingley

Each time a learner in a self-paced online course seeks to answer an assessment question, it takes some time for the student to read the question and arrive at an answer to submit. If multiple attempts are allowed, and the first answer is incorrect, it takes some time to provide a second answer. Here we study the distribution of such "response times." We find that the log-normal statistical model for such times, previously suggested in the literature, holds for online courses. Users who, according to this model, tend to take longer on submits are more likely to complete the course, have a higher level of engagement, and achieve a higher grade. This finding can be the basis for designing interventions in online courses, such as MOOCs, which would encourage "fast" users to slow down.

Marc Ratkovic, Dustin Tingley

Multiple regression has been the go-to method for data analysis for generations of scholars due to its transparency, interpretability, and desirable theoretical properties. However, the method's simplicity precludes the discovery of complex heterogeneities in the data. We introduce the Method of Direct Estimation and Inference (MDEI) that embraces these potential complexities, is interpretable, has desirable theoretical guarantees, and, unlike some existing methods, returns appropriate uncertainty estimates. The proposed method uses a machine learning regression methodology to estimate the observation-level effect of a treatment variable. Importantly, we introduce a robust approach to uncertainty estimates. We provide simulation evidence and an application illustrating the performance of the method.

Jacob Whitehill, Kiran Mohan, Daniel Seaton et al.

In order to obtain reliable accuracy estimates for automatic MOOC dropout predictors, it is important to train and test them in a manner consistent with how they will be used in practice. Yet most prior research on MOOC dropout prediction has measured test accuracy on the same course used for training the classifier, which can lead to overly optimistic accuracy estimates. In order to understand better how accuracy is affected by the training+testing regime, we compared the accuracy of a standard dropout prediction architecture (clickstream features + logistic regression) across 4 different training paradigms. Results suggest that (1) training and testing on the same course ("post-hoc") can overestimate accuracy by several percentage points; (2) dropout classifiers trained on proxy labels based on students' persistence are surprisingly competitive with post-hoc training (87.33% versus 90.20% AUC averaged over 8 weeks of 40 HarvardX MOOCs); and (3) classifier performance does not vary significantly with the academic discipline. Finally, we also research new dropout prediction architectures based on deep, fully-connected, feed-forward neural networks and find that (4) networks with as many as 5 hidden layers can statistically significantly increase test accuracy over that of logistic regression.