Jens Dittrich

Christian Schön, Jens Dittrich

Forecasting severe weather conditions is still a very challenging and computationally expensive task due to the enormous amount of data and the complexity of the underlying physics. Machine learning approaches and especially deep learning have however shown huge improvements in many research areas dealing with large datasets in recent years. In this work, we tackle one specific sub-problem of weather forecasting, namely the prediction of thunderstorms and lightning. We propose the use of a convolutional neural network architecture inspired by UNet++ and ResNet to predict thunderstorms as a binary classification problem based on satellite images and lightnings recorded in the past. We achieve a probability of detection of more than 94% for lightnings within the next 15 minutes while at the same time minimizing the false alarm ratio compared to previous approaches.

Christian Schön, Jens Dittrich, Richard Müller

Despite the progress within the last decades, weather forecasting is still a challenging and computationally expensive task. Current satellite-based approaches to predict thunderstorms are usually based on the analysis of the observed brightness temperatures in different spectral channels and emit a warning if a critical threshold is reached. Recent progress in data science however demonstrates that machine learning can be successfully applied to many research fields in science, especially in areas dealing with large datasets. We therefore present a new approach to the problem of predicting thunderstorms based on machine learning. The core idea of our work is to use the error of two-dimensional optical flow algorithms applied to images of meteorological satellites as a feature for machine learning models. We interpret that optical flow error as an indication of convection potentially leading to thunderstorms and lightning. To factor in spatial proximity we use various manual convolution steps. We also consider effects such as the time of day or the geographic location. We train different tree classifier models as well as a neural network to predict lightning within the next few hours (called nowcasting in meteorology) based on these features. In our evaluation section we compare the predictive power of the different models and the impact of different features on the classification result. Our results show a high accuracy of 96% for predictions over the next 15 minutes which slightly decreases with increasing forecast period but still remains above 83% for forecasts of up to five hours. The high false positive rate of nearly 6% however needs further investigation to allow for an operational use of our approach.

Ankur Sharma, Felix Martin Schuhknecht, Jens Dittrich

Like any large software system, a full-fledged DBMS offers an overwhelming amount of configuration knobs. These range from static initialisation parameters like buffer sizes, degree of concurrency, or level of replication to complex runtime decisions like creating a secondary index on a particular column or reorganising the physical layout of the store. To simplify the configuration, industry grade DBMSs are usually shipped with various advisory tools, that provide recommendations for given workloads and machines. However, reality shows that the actual configuration, tuning, and maintenance is usually still done by a human administrator, relying on intuition and experience. Recent work on deep reinforcement learning has shown very promising results in solving problems, that require such a sense of intuition. For instance, it has been applied very successfully in learning how to play complicated games with enormous search spaces. Motivated by these achievements, in this work we explore how deep reinforcement learning can be used to administer a DBMS. First, we will describe how deep reinforcement learning can be used to automatically tune an arbitrary software system like a DBMS by defining a problem environment. Second, we showcase our concept of NoDBA at the concrete example of index selection and evaluate how well it recommends indexes for given workloads.