Pravin Varaiya

Pratyush Chakraborty, Enrique Baeyens, Kameshwar Poolla et al.

Sharing economy is a transformative socio-economic phenomenon built around the idea of sharing underused resources and services, e.g. transportation and housing, thereby reducing costs and extracting value. Anticipating continued reduction in the cost of electricity storage, we look into the potential opportunity in electrical power system where consumers share storage with each other. We consider two different scenarios. In the first scenario, consumers are assumed to already have individual storage devices and they explore cooperation to minimize the realized electricity consumption cost. In the second scenario, a group of consumers is interested to invest in joint storage capacity and operate it cooperatively. The resulting system problems are modeled using cooperative game theory. In both cases, the cooperative games are shown to have non-empty cores and we develop efficient cost allocations in the core with analytical expressions. Thus, sharing of storage in cooperative manner is shown to be very effective for the electric power system.

Pratyush Chakraborty, Enrique Baeyens, Pramod P. Khargonekar et al.

Ongoing reductions in the cost of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems are driving their increased installations by residential households. Various incentive programs such as feed-in tariff, net metering, net purchase and sale that allow the prosumers to sell their generated electricity to the grid are also powering this trend. In this paper, we investigate sharing of PV systems among a community of households, who can also benefit further by pooling their production. Using cooperative game theory, we find conditions under which such sharing decreases their net total cost. We also develop allocation rules such that the joint net electricity consumption cost is allocated to the participants. These cost allocations are based on the cost causation principle. The allocations also satisfy the standalone cost principle and promote PV solar aggregation. We also perform a comparative analytical study on the benefit of sharing under the mechanisms favorable for sharing, namely net metering, and net purchase and sale. The results are illustrated in a case study using real consumption data from a residential community in Austin, Texas.

Ashutosh Nayyar, Matias Negrete-Pincetic, Kameshwar Poolla et al.

As the proportion of total power supplied by renewable sources increases, it gets more costly to use reserve generation to compensate for the variability of renewables like solar and wind. Hence attention has been drawn to exploiting flexibility in demand as a substitute for reserve generation. Flexibility has different attributes. In this paper we consider loads requiring a constant power for a specified duration (within say one day), whose flexibility resides in the fact that power may be delivered at any time so long as the total duration of service equals the load's specified duration. We give conditions under which a variable power supply is adequate to meet these flexible loads, and describe how to allocate the power to the loads. We also characterize the additional power needed when the supply is inadequate. We study the problem of allocating the available power to loads to maximize welfare, and show that the welfare optimum can be sustained as a competitive equilibrium in a forward market in which electricity is sold as service contracts differentiated by the duration of service and power level. We compare this forward market with a spot market in their ability to capture the flexiblity inherent in duration-differentiated loads.

Samuel Coogan, Christopher Flores, Pravin Varaiya

The operation of most signalized intersections is governed by predefined timing plans that are applied during specified times of the day. These plans are designed to accommodate average conditions and are unable to respond to large deviations in traffic flow. We propose a control approach that adjusts time-of-day signaling plans based on a prediction of future traffic flow. The prediction algorithm identifies correlated, low rank structure in historical measurement data and predicts future traffic flow from real-time measurements by determining which structural trends are prominent in the measurements. From this prediction, the controller then determines the optimal time of day to apply new timing plans. We demonstrate the potential benefits of this approach using eight months of high resolution data collected at an intersection in Beaufort, South Carolina.

Armin Askari, Daniel Albarnaz Farias, Alex A. Kurzhanskiy et al.

The paper evaluates the influence of the maximum vehicle acceleration and variable proportions of ACC/CACC vehicles on the throughput of an intersection. Two cases are studied: (1) free road downstream of the intersection; and (2) red light at some distance downstream of the intersection. Simulation of a 4-mile stretch of an arterial with 13 signalized intersections is used to evaluate the impact of (C)ACC vehicles on the mean and standard deviation of travel time as the proportion of (C)ACC vehicles is increased. The results suggest a very high urban mobility benefit of (C)ACC vehicles at little or no cost in infrastructure.

Armin Askari, Daniel Albarnaz Farias, Alex A. Kurzhanskiy et al.

To properly assess the impact of (cooperative) adaptive cruise control ACC (CACC), one has to model vehicle dynamics. First of all, one has to choose the car following model, as it determines the vehicle flow as vehicles accelerate from standstill or decelerate because of the obstacle ahead. The other factor significantly affecting the intersection throughput is the maximal vehicle acceleration rate. In this paper, we analyze three car following behaviors: Gipps model, Improved Intelligent Driver Model (IIDM) and Helly model. Gipps model exhibits rather aggressive acceleration behavior. If used for the intersection throughput estimation, this model would lead to overly optimistic results. Helly model is convenient to analyze due to its linear nature, but its deceleration behavior in the presence of obstacles ahead is unrealistically abrupt. Showing the most realistic acceleration and deceleration behavior of the three models, IIDM is suited for ACC/CACC impact evaluation better than the other two. We discuss the influence of the maximal vehicle acceleration rate and presence of different portions of ACC/CACC vehicles on intersection throughput in the context of the three car following models. The analysis is done for two cases: (1) free road downstream of the intersection; and (2) red light at some distance downstream of the intersection. Finally, we introduce the platoon model and evaluate ACC and CACC with platooning in terms of travel time ad network throughput using SUMO simulation of the 4-mile stretch of Colorado Boulevard / Huntington Drive arterial with 13 signalized intersections in Arcadia, Southern California.

Ram Rajagopal, XuanLong Nguyen, Sinem Coleri Ergen et al.

Single fault sequential change point problems have become important in modeling for various phenomena in large distributed systems, such as sensor networks. But such systems in many situations present multiple interacting faults. For example, individual sensors in a network may fail and detection is performed by comparing measurements between sensors, resulting in statistical dependency among faults. We present a new formulation for multiple interacting faults in a distributed system. The formulation includes specifications of how individual subsystems composing the large system may fail, the information that can be shared among these subsystems and the interaction pattern between faults. We then specify a new sequential algorithm for detecting these faults. The main feature of the algorithm is that it uses composite stopping rules for a subsystem that depend on the decision of other subsystems. We provide asymptotic false alarm and detection delay analysis for this algorithm in the Bayesian setting and show that under certain conditions the algorithm is optimal. The analysis methodology relies on novel detailed comparison techniques between stopping times. We validate the approach with some simulations.

Ashutosh Nayyar, Matias Negrete-Pincetic, Kameshwar Poolla et al.

The integration of renewable generation poses operational and economic challenges for the electricity grid. For the core problem of power balance, the legacy paradigm of tailoring supply to follow random demand may be inappropriate under deep penetration of uncertain and intermittent renewable generation. In this situation, there is an emerging consensus that the alternative approach of controlling demand to follow random supply offers compelling economic benefits in terms of reduced regulation costs. This approach exploits the flexibility of demand side resources and requires sensing, actuation, and communication infrastructure; distributed control algorithms; and viable schemes to compensate participating loads. This paper considers rate-constrained energy services which are a specific paradigm for flexible demand. These services are characterized by a specified delivery window, the total amount of energy that must be supplied over this window, and the maximum rate at which this energy may be delivered. We consider a forward market where rate-constrained energy services are traded. We explore allocation policies and market decisions of a supplier in this market. The supplier owns a generation mix that includes some uncertain renewable generation and may also purchase energy in day-ahead and real-time markets to meet customer demand. The supplier must optimally select the portfolio of rate-constrained services to sell, the amount of day-ahead energy to buy, and the policies for making real-time energy purchases and allocations to customers to maximize its expected profit. We offer solutions to the supplier's decision and control problems to economically provide rate constrained energy services.

Akhil Shetty, Mengqiao Yu, Alex Kurzhanskiy et al.

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are promoted as a technology that will create a future with effortless driving and virtually no traffic accidents. AV companies claim that, when fully developed, the technology will eliminate 94% of all accidents that are caused by human error. These AVs will likely avoid the large number of crashes caused by impaired, distracted or reckless drivers. But there remains a significant proportion of crashes for which no driver is directly responsible. In particular, the absence of connectivity of an AV with its neighboring vehicles (V2V) and the infrastructure (I2V) leads to a lack of information that can induce such crashes. Since AV designs today do not require such connectivity, these crashes would persist in the future. Using prototypical examples motivated by the NHTSA pre-crash scenario typology, we show that fully autonomous vehicles cannot guarantee safety in the absence of connectivity. Combining theoretical models and empirical data, we also argue that such hazardous scenarios will occur with a significantly high probability. This suggests that incorporating connectivity is an essential step on the path towards safe AV technology.

Hamidreza Tavafoghi, Kameshwar Poolla, Pravin Varaiya

We present a queuing model of parking dynamics and a model-based prediction method to provide real-time probabilistic forecasts of future parking occupancy. The queuing model has a non-homogeneous arrival rate and time-varying service time distribution. All statistical assumptions of the model are verified using data from 29 truck parking locations, each with between 55 and 299 parking spots. For each location and each spot the data specifies the arrival and departure times of a truck, for 16 months of operation. The modeling framework presented in this paper provides empirical support for queuing models adopted in many theoretical studies and policy designs. We discuss how our framework can be used to study parking problems in different environments. Based on the queuing model, we propose two prediction methods, a microscopic method and a macroscopic method, that provide a real-time probabilistic forecast of parking occupancy for an arbitrary forecast horizon. These model-based methods convert a probabilistic forecast problem into a parameter estimation problem that can be tackled using classical estimation methods such as regressions or pure machine learning algorithms. We characterize a lower bound for an arbitrary real-time prediction algorithm. We evaluate the performance of these methods using the truck data comparing the outcomes of their implementations with other model-based and model-free methods proposed in the literature.

Offer Grembek, Alex Kurzhanskiy, Aditya Medury et al.

Intersections are hazardous places. Threats arise from interactions among pedestrians, bicycles and vehicles, more complicated vehicle trajectories in the absence of lane markings, phases that prevent determining who has the right of way, invisible vehicle approaches, vehicle obstructions, and illegal movements. These challenges are not fully addressed by the "road diet" and road redesign prescribed in Vision Zero plans, nor will they be completely overcome by autonomous vehicles with their many sensors and tireless attention to surroundings. Accidents can also occur because drivers, cyclists and pedestrians do not have the information they need to avoid wrong decisions. In these cases, the missing information can be computed and broadcast by an intelligent intersection. The information gives the current full signal phase, an estimate of the time when the phase will change, and the occupancy of the blind spots of the driver or autonomous vehicle. The paper develops a design of the intelligent intersection, motivated by the analysis of an accident at an intersection in Tempe, AZ, between an automated Uber Volvo and a manual Honda CRV and culminates in a proposal for an intelligent intersection infrastructure. The intelligent intersection also serves as a software-enabled version of the `protected intersection' design to improve the passage of cyclists and pedestrians through an intersection.

Dileep Kalathil, Chenye Wu, Kameshwar Poolla et al.

The sharing economy has disrupted housing and transportation sectors. Homeowners can rent out their property when they are away on vacation, car owners can offer ride sharing services. These sharing economy business models are based on monetizing under-utilized infrastructure. They are enabled by peer-to-peer platforms that match eager sellers with willing buyers. Are there compelling sharing economy opportunities in the electricity sector? What products or services can be shared in tomorrow's Smart Grid? We begin by exploring sharing economy opportunities in the electricity sector, and discuss regulatory and technical obstacles to these opportunities. We then study the specific problem of a collection of firms sharing their electricity storage. We characterize equilibrium prices for shared storage in a spot market. We formulate storage investment decisions of the firms as a non-convex non-cooperative game. We show that under a mild alignment condition, a Nash equilibrium exists, it is unique, and it supports the social welfare. We discuss technology platforms necessary for the physical exchange of power, and market platforms necessary to trade electricity storage. We close with synthetic examples to illustrate our ideas.

Fatma Yildiz Tascikaraoglu, Jennie Lioris, Ajith Muralidharan et al.

The calibration of a PointQ arterial microsimulation model is formulated as a quadratic programming problem (QP) whose decision variables are link flows, demands at entry links, and turn movements at intersections, subject to linear constraints imposed by flow conservation identities and field measurements of a subset of link flows (counts), demands and turn ratios. The quadratic objective function is the deviation of the decision variables from their measured values. The solution to the QP gives estimates of all unmeasured variables and thus yields a fully specified simulation model. Runs of this simulation model can then be compared with other field measurements, such as travel times along routes, to judge the reliability of the calibrated model. A section of the Huntington-Colorado arterial near I-210 in Los Angeles comprising 73 links and 16 intersections is used to illustrate the procedure. Two experiments are conducted with the calibrated model to determine the maximum traffic that can be diverted from the I-210 freeway to the arterial network, with and without permitting changes in the timing plans. The maximum diversion in both cases is obtained by solving a linear programming problem. A third experiment compares the delay and travel time using the existing fixed time control and a max pressure control. The fourth experiment compares two PointQ models: in the first model the freeway traffic follows a pre-specified route while the background traffic moves according to turn ratios, and in the second model turn ratios are modified in a single commodity model to match the link flows. The substantial modification of the turn ratios needed suggests that the use of a single-commodity model as frequently done in CTM models can be misleading...

Borhan M. Sanandaji, Akin Tascikaraoglu, Kameshwar Poolla et al.

Integrating wind power into the grid is challenging because of its random nature. Integration is facilitated with accurate short-term forecasts of wind power. The paper presents a spatio-temporal wind speed forecasting algorithm that incorporates the time series data of a target station and data of surrounding stations. Inspired by Compressive Sensing (CS) and structured-sparse recovery algorithms, we claim that there usually exists an intrinsic low-dimensional structure governing a large collection of stations that should be exploited. We cast the forecasting problem as recovery of a block-sparse signal $\boldsymbol{x}$ from a set of linear equations $\boldsymbol{b} = A\boldsymbol{x}$ for which we propose novel structure-sparse recovery algorithms. Results of a case study in the east coast show that the proposed Compressive Spatio-Temporal Wind Speed Forecasting (CST-WSF) algorithm significantly improves the short-term forecasts compared to a set of widely-used benchmark models.