Nicholas Foti

Chacha Chen, Matthew Jörke, Adam Goliński et al.

Modern AI systems are being deployed in complex domains such as medicine, science, and law, where it is important that they not only produce correct answers, but also represent and update uncertain beliefs about the world as new evidence arrives. We introduce the novel technique of studying LLMs as information processing rules and utilize the information processing gap to study the internal (in)consistencies of how LLMs update their probabilistic beliefs from evidence. Our extensive experiments evaluate multiple approaches in which LLMs can incorporate evidence into their beliefs. Some of these approaches produce (nearly) Bayesian updates; others seem to use a learned heuristic. Surprisingly, the non-Bayesian heuristic updates often outperform exact Bayesian computation in terms of downstream task performance -- indicating the LLMs' probabilistic models of the world are misspecified. Lastly, we show how our measure can provide diagnostics to identify issues with LLM-powered inferential systems.

Samuel Ainsworth, Nicholas Foti, Adrian KC Lee et al.

Deep generative models have recently yielded encouraging results in producing subjectively realistic samples of complex data. Far less attention has been paid to making these generative models interpretable. In many scenarios, ranging from scientific applications to finance, the observed variables have a natural grouping. It is often of interest to understand systems of interaction amongst these groups, and latent factor models (LFMs) are an attractive approach. However, traditional LFMs are limited by assuming a linear correlation structure. We present an output interpretable VAE (oi-VAE) for grouped data that models complex, nonlinear latent-to-observed relationships. We combine a structured VAE comprised of group-specific generators with a sparsity-inducing prior. We demonstrate that oi-VAE yields meaningful notions of interpretability in the analysis of motion capture and MEG data. We further show that in these situations, the regularization inherent to oi-VAE can actually lead to improved generalization and learned generative processes.

Alex Tank, Ian Covert, Nicholas Foti et al.

While most classical approaches to Granger causality detection assume linear dynamics, many interactions in real-world applications, like neuroscience and genomics, are inherently nonlinear. In these cases, using linear models may lead to inconsistent estimation of Granger causal interactions. We propose a class of nonlinear methods by applying structured multilayer perceptrons (MLPs) or recurrent neural networks (RNNs) combined with sparsity-inducing penalties on the weights. By encouraging specific sets of weights to be zero--in particular, through the use of convex group-lasso penalties--we can extract the Granger causal structure. To further contrast with traditional approaches, our framework naturally enables us to efficiently capture long-range dependencies between series either via our RNNs or through an automatic lag selection in the MLP. We show that our neural Granger causality methods outperform state-of-the-art nonlinear Granger causality methods on the DREAM3 challenge data. This data consists of nonlinear gene expression and regulation time courses with only a limited number of time points. The successes we show in this challenging dataset provide a powerful example of how deep learning can be useful in cases that go beyond prediction on large datasets. We likewise illustrate our methods in detecting nonlinear interactions in a human motion capture dataset.

Andrew C. Miller, Nicholas Foti, Ryan P. Adams

We propose a black-box variational inference method to approximate intractable distributions with an increasingly rich approximating class. Our method, termed variational boosting, iteratively refines an existing variational approximation by solving a sequence of optimization problems, allowing the practitioner to trade computation time for accuracy. We show how to expand the variational approximating class by incorporating additional covariance structure and by introducing new components to form a mixture. We apply variational boosting to synthetic and real statistical models, and show that resulting posterior inferences compare favorably to existing posterior approximation algorithms in both accuracy and efficiency.