Virag Shah

Virag Shah, Jose Blanchet, Ramesh Johari

Motivated by the application of real-time pricing in e-commerce platforms, we consider the problem of revenue-maximization in a setting where the seller can leverage contextual information describing the customer's history and the product's type to predict her valuation of the product. However, her true valuation is unobservable to the seller, only binary outcome in the form of success-failure of a transaction is observed. Unlike in usual contextual bandit settings, the optimal price/arm given a covariate in our setting is sensitive to the detailed characteristics of the residual uncertainty distribution. We develop a semi-parametric model in which the residual distribution is non-parametric and provide the first algorithm which learns both regression parameters and residual distribution with $\tilde O(\sqrt{n})$ regret. We empirically test a scalable implementation of our algorithm and observe good performance.

Sven Schmit, Virag Shah, Ramesh Johari

Motivated by the widespread adoption of large-scale A/B testing in industry, we propose a new experimentation framework for the setting where potential experiments are abundant (i.e., many hypotheses are available to test), and observations are costly; we refer to this as the experiment-rich regime. Such scenarios require the experimenter to internalize the opportunity cost of assigning a sample to a particular experiment. We fully characterize the optimal policy and give an algorithm to compute it. Furthermore, we develop a simple heuristic that also provides intuition for the optimal policy. We use simulations based on real data to compare both the optimal algorithm and the heuristic to other natural alternative experimental design frameworks. In particular, we discuss the paradox of power: high-powered classical tests can lead to highly inefficient sampling in the experiment-rich regime.

Virag Shah, Jose Blanchet, Ramesh Johari

In many platforms, user arrivals exhibit a self-reinforcing behavior: future user arrivals are likely to have preferences similar to users who were satisfied in the past. In other words, arrivals exhibit positive externalities. We study multiarmed bandit (MAB) problems with positive externalities. We show that the self-reinforcing preferences may lead standard benchmark algorithms such as UCB to exhibit linear regret. We develop a new algorithm, Balanced Exploration (BE), which explores arms carefully to avoid suboptimal convergence of arrivals before sufficient evidence is gathered. We also introduce an adaptive variant of BE which successively eliminates suboptimal arms. We analyze their asymptotic regret, and establish optimality by showing that no algorithm can perform better.

Virag Shah, Lennart Gulikers, Laurent Massoulie et al.

A matching in a two-sided market often incurs an externality: a matched resource may become unavailable to the other side of the market, at least for a while. This is especially an issue in online platforms involving human experts as the expert resources are often scarce. The efficient utilization of experts in these platforms is made challenging by the fact that the information available about the parties involved is usually limited. To address this challenge, we develop a model of a task-expert matching system where a task is matched to an expert using not only the prior information about the task but also the feedback obtained from the past matches. In our model the tasks arrive online while the experts are fixed and constrained by a finite service capacity. For this model, we characterize the maximum task resolution throughput a platform can achieve. We show that the natural greedy approaches where each expert is assigned a task most suitable to her skill is suboptimal, as it does not internalize the above externality. We develop a throughput optimal backpressure algorithm which does so by accounting for the `congestion' among different task types. Finally, we validate our model and confirm our theoretical findings with data-driven simulations via logs of Math.StackExchange, a StackOverflow forum dedicated to mathematics.