Alexander Strzalkowski

Guillaume Martinet, Alexander Strzalkowski, Barbara E. Engelhardt

Selecting powerful predictors for an outcome is a cornerstone task for machine learning. However, some types of questions can only be answered by identifying the predictors that causally affect the outcome. A recent approach to this causal inference problem leverages the invariance property of a causal mechanism across differing experimental environments (Peters et al., 2016; Heinze-Deml et al., 2018). This method, invariant causal prediction (ICP), has a substantial computational defect -- the runtime scales exponentially with the number of possible causal variables. In this work, we show that the approach taken in ICP may be reformulated as a series of nonparametric tests that scales linearly in the number of predictors. Each of these tests relies on the minimization of a novel loss function -- the Wasserstein variance -- that is derived from tools in optimal transport theory and is used to quantify distributional variability across environments. We prove under mild assumptions that our method is able to recover the set of identifiable direct causes, and we demonstrate in our experiments that it is competitive with other benchmark causal discovery algorithms.

Scott Gigante, David van Dijk, Kevin Moon et al.

Complex high dimensional stochastic dynamic systems arise in many applications in the natural sciences and especially biology. However, while these systems are difficult to describe analytically, "snapshot" measurements that sample the output of the system are often available. In order to model the dynamics of such systems given snapshot data, or local transitions, we present a deep neural network framework we call Dynamics Modeling Network or DyMoN. DyMoN is a neural network framework trained as a deep generative Markov model whose next state is a probability distribution based on the current state. DyMoN is trained using samples of current and next-state pairs, and thus does not require longitudinal measurements. We show the advantage of DyMoN over shallow models such as Kalman filters and hidden Markov models, and other deep models such as recurrent neural networks in its ability to embody the dynamics (which can be studied via perturbation of the neural network) and generate longitudinal hypothetical trajectories. We perform three case studies in which we apply DyMoN to different types of biological systems and extract features of the dynamics in each case by examining the learned model.