Jeffrey S. Rosenthal

Cédric Beaulac, Jeffrey S. Rosenthal

The contributions in this article are two-fold. First, we introduce a new hand-written digit data set that we collected. It contains high-resolution images of hand-written The contributions in this article are two-fold. First, we introduce a new handwritten digit data set that we collected. It contains high-resolution images of handwritten digits together with various writer characteristics which are not available in the well-known MNIST database. The multiple writer characteristics gathered are a novelty of our data set and create new research opportunities. The data set is publicly available online. Second, we analyse this new data set. We begin with simple supervised tasks. We assess the predictability of the writer characteristics gathered, the effect of using some of those characteristics as predictors in classification task and the effect of higher resolution images on classification accuracy. We also explore semi-supervised applications; we can leverage the high quantity of handwritten digits data sets already existing online to improve the accuracy of various classifications task with noticeable success. Finally, we also demonstrate the generative perspective offered by this new data set; we are able to generate images that mimics the writing style of specific writers. The data set has unique and distinct features and our analysis establishes benchmarks and showcases some of the new opportunities made possible with this new data set.

Cédric Beaulac, Jeffrey S. Rosenthal, Qinglin Pei et al.

In this manuscript we analyze a data set containing information on children with Hodgkin Lymphoma (HL) enrolled on a clinical trial. Treatments received and survival status were collected together with other covariates such as demographics and clinical measurements. Our main task is to explore the potential of machine learning (ML) algorithms in a survival analysis context in order to improve over the Cox Proportional Hazard (CoxPH) model. We discuss the weaknesses of the CoxPH model we would like to improve upon and then we introduce multiple algorithms, from well-established ones to state-of-the-art models, that solve these issues. We then compare every model according to the concordance index and the brier score. Finally, we produce a series of recommendations, based on our experience, for practitioners that would like to benefit from the recent advances in artificial intelligence.

Cédric Beaulac, Jeffrey S. Rosenthal, David Hodgson

In the following short article we adapt a new and popular machine learning model for inference on medical data sets. Our method is based on the Variational AutoEncoder (VAE) framework that we adapt to survival analysis on small data sets with missing values. In our model, the true health status appears as a set of latent variables that affects the observed covariates and the survival chances. We show that this flexible model allows insightful decision-making using a predicted distribution and outperforms a classic survival analysis model.

Cédric Beaulac, Jeffrey S. Rosenthal

The main contribution of this paper is the development of a new decision tree algorithm. The proposed approach allows users to guide the algorithm through the data partitioning process. We believe this feature has many applications but in this paper we demonstrate how to utilize this algorithm to analyse data sets containing missing values. We tested our algorithm against simulated data sets with various missing data structures and a real data set. The results demonstrate that this new classification procedure efficiently handles missing values and produces results that are slightly more accurate and more interpretable than most common procedures without any imputations or pre-processing.

Cédric Beaulac, Jeffrey S. Rosenthal

In this article, a large data set containing every course taken by every undergraduate student in a major university in Canada over 10 years is analysed. Modern machine learning algorithms can use large data sets to build useful tools for the data provider, in this case, the university. In this article, two classifiers are constructed using random forests. To begin, the first two semesters of courses completed by a student are used to predict if they will obtain an undergraduate degree. Secondly, for the students that completed a program, their major is predicted using once again the first few courses they have registered to. A classification tree is an intuitive and powerful classifier and building a random forest of trees improves this classifier. Random forests also allow for reliable variable importance measurements. These measures explain what variables are useful to the classifiers and can be used to better understand what is statistically related to the students' situation. The results are two accurate classifiers and a variable importance analysis that provides useful information to university administrations.

Reihaneh Entezari, Radu V. Craiu, Jeffrey S. Rosenthal

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling from a posterior distribution corresponding to a massive data set can be computationally prohibitive since producing one sample requires a number of operations that is linear in the data size. In this paper, we introduce a new communication-free parallel method, the Likelihood Inflating Sampling Algorithm (LISA), that significantly reduces computational costs by randomly splitting the dataset into smaller subsets and running MCMC methods independently in parallel on each subset using different processors. Each processor will be used to run an MCMC chain that samples sub-posterior distributions which are defined using an "inflated" likelihood function. We develop a strategy for combining the draws from different sub-posteriors to study the full posterior of the Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) model. The performance of the method is tested using both simulated and real data.