Timothy A. Mann

Timothy A. Mann, Sven Gowal, András György et al.

Predicting delayed outcomes is an important problem in recommender systems (e.g., if customers will finish reading an ebook). We formalize the problem as an adversarial, delayed online learning problem and consider how a proxy for the delayed outcome (e.g., if customers read a third of the book in 24 hours) can help minimize regret, even though the proxy is not available when making a prediction. Motivated by our regret analysis, we propose two neural network architectures: Factored Forecaster (FF) which is ideal if the proxy is informative of the outcome in hindsight, and Residual Factored Forecaster (RFF) that is robust to a non-informative proxy. Experiments on two real-world datasets for predicting human behavior show that RFF outperforms both FF and a direct forecaster that does not make use of the proxy. Our results suggest that exploiting proxies by factorization is a promising way to mitigate the impact of long delays in human-behavior prediction tasks.

Esther Derman, Daniel J. Mankowitz, Timothy A. Mann et al.

Robust Reinforcement Learning aims to derive optimal behavior that accounts for model uncertainty in dynamical systems. However, previous studies have shown that by considering the worst case scenario, robust policies can be overly conservative. Our soft-robust framework is an attempt to overcome this issue. In this paper, we present a novel Soft-Robust Actor-Critic algorithm (SR-AC). It learns an optimal policy with respect to a distribution over an uncertainty set and stays robust to model uncertainty but avoids the conservativeness of robust strategies. We show the convergence of SR-AC and test the efficiency of our approach on different domains by comparing it against regular learning methods and their robust formulations.

Ray Jiang, Sven Gowal, Timothy A. Mann et al.

The conventional solution to the recommendation problem greedily ranks individual document candidates by prediction scores. However, this method fails to optimize the slate as a whole, and hence, often struggles to capture biases caused by the page layout and document interdepedencies. The slate recommendation problem aims to directly find the optimally ordered subset of documents (i.e. slates) that best serve users' interests. Solving this problem is hard due to the combinatorial explosion in all combinations of document candidates and their display positions on the page. Therefore we propose a paradigm shift from the traditional viewpoint of solving a ranking problem to a direct slate generation framework. In this paper, we introduce List Conditional Variational Auto-Encoders (List-CVAE), which learns the joint distribution of documents on the slate conditioned on user responses, and directly generates full slates. Experiments on simulated and real-world data show that List-CVAE outperforms popular comparable ranking methods consistently on various scales of documents corpora.

Daniel J. Mankowitz, Timothy A. Mann, Pierre-Luc Bacon et al.

Robust reinforcement learning aims to produce policies that have strong guarantees even in the face of environments/transition models whose parameters have strong uncertainty. Existing work uses value-based methods and the usual primitive action setting. In this paper, we propose robust methods for learning temporally abstract actions, in the framework of options. We present a Robust Options Policy Iteration (ROPI) algorithm with convergence guarantees, which learns options that are robust to model uncertainty. We utilize ROPI to learn robust options with the Robust Options Deep Q Network (RO-DQN) that solves multiple tasks and mitigates model misspecification due to model uncertainty. We present experimental results which suggest that policy iteration with linear features may have an inherent form of robustness when using coarse feature representations. In addition, we present experimental results which demonstrate that robustness helps policy iteration implemented on top of deep neural networks to generalize over a much broader range of dynamics than non-robust policy iteration.

Timothy A. Mann, Hugo Penedones, Shie Mannor et al.

Temporal Difference learning or TD($λ$) is a fundamental algorithm in the field of reinforcement learning. However, setting TD's $λ$ parameter, which controls the timescale of TD updates, is generally left up to the practitioner. We formalize the $λ$ selection problem as a bias-variance trade-off where the solution is the value of $λ$ that leads to the smallest Mean Squared Value Error (MSVE). To solve this trade-off we suggest applying Leave-One-Trajectory-Out Cross-Validation (LOTO-CV) to search the space of $λ$ values. Unfortunately, this approach is too computationally expensive for most practical applications. For Least Squares TD (LSTD) we show that LOTO-CV can be implemented efficiently to automatically tune $λ$ and apply function optimization methods to efficiently search the space of $λ$ values. The resulting algorithm, ALLSTD, is parameter free and our experiments demonstrate that ALLSTD is significantly computationally faster than the naïve LOTO-CV implementation while achieving similar performance.

Daniel J. Mankowitz, Timothy A. Mann, Shie Mannor

We introduce the Adaptive Skills, Adaptive Partitions (ASAP) framework that (1) learns skills (i.e., temporally extended actions or options) as well as (2) where to apply them. We believe that both (1) and (2) are necessary for a truly general skill learning framework, which is a key building block needed to scale up to lifelong learning agents. The ASAP framework can also solve related new tasks simply by adapting where it applies its existing learned skills. We prove that ASAP converges to a local optimum under natural conditions. Finally, our experimental results, which include a RoboCup domain, demonstrate the ability of ASAP to learn where to reuse skills as well as solve multiple tasks with considerably less experience than solving each task from scratch.

Daniel J. Mankowitz, Timothy A. Mann, Shie Mannor

For complex, high-dimensional Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), it may be necessary to represent the policy with function approximation. A problem is misspecified whenever, the representation cannot express any policy with acceptable performance. We introduce IHOMP : an approach for solving misspecified problems. IHOMP iteratively learns a set of context specialized options and combines these options to solve an otherwise misspecified problem. Our main contribution is proving that IHOMP enjoys theoretical convergence guarantees. In addition, we extend IHOMP to exploit Option Interruption (OI) enabling it to decide where the learned options can be reused. Our experiments demonstrate that IHOMP can find near-optimal solutions to otherwise misspecified problems and that OI can further improve the solutions.

Daniel J. Mankowitz, Timothy A. Mann, Shie Mannor

The monolithic approach to policy representation in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) looks for a single policy that can be represented as a function from states to actions. For the monolithic approach to succeed (and this is not always possible), a complex feature representation is often necessary since the policy is a complex object that has to prescribe what actions to take all over the state space. This is especially true in large domains with complicated dynamics. It is also computationally inefficient to both learn and plan in MDPs using a complex monolithic approach. We present a different approach where we restrict the policy space to policies that can be represented as combinations of simpler, parameterized skills---a type of temporally extended action, with a simple policy representation. We introduce Learning Skills via Bootstrapping (LSB) that can use a broad family of Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms as a "black box" to iteratively learn parametrized skills. Initially, the learned skills are short-sighted but each iteration of the algorithm allows the skills to bootstrap off one another, improving each skill in the process. We prove that this bootstrapping process returns a near-optimal policy. Furthermore, our experiments demonstrate that LSB can solve MDPs that, given the same representational power, could not be solved by a monolithic approach. Thus, planning with learned skills results in better policies without requiring complex policy representations.

Nir Levine, Timothy A. Mann, Shie Mannor

Twitter, a popular social network, presents great opportunities for on-line machine learning research. However, previous research has focused almost entirely on learning from passively collected data. We study the problem of learning to acquire followers through normative user behavior, as opposed to the mass following policies applied by many bots. We formalize the problem as a contextual bandit problem, in which we consider retweeting content to be the action chosen and each tweet (content) is accompanied by context. We design reward signals based on the change in followers. The result of our month long experiment with 60 agents suggests that (1) aggregating experience across agents can adversely impact prediction accuracy and (2) the Twitter community's response to different actions is non-stationary. Our findings suggest that actively learning on-line can provide deeper insights about how to attract followers than machine learning over passively collected data alone.