Caleb Pomeroy

Caleb Pomeroy, Niheer Dasandi, Slava Jankin Mikhaylov

Advances in community detection reveal new insights into multiplex and multilayer networks. Less work, however, investigates the relationship between these communities and outcomes in social systems. We leverage these advances to shed light on the relationship between the cooperative mesostructure of the international system and the onset of interstate conflict. We detect communities based upon weaker signals of affinity expressed in United Nations votes and speeches, as well as stronger signals observed across multiple layers of bilateral cooperation. Communities of diplomatic affinity display an expected negative relationship with conflict onset. Ties in communities based upon observed cooperation, however, display no effect under a standard model specification and a positive relationship with conflict under an alternative specification. These results align with some extant hypotheses but also point to a paucity in our understanding of the relationship between community structure and behavioral outcomes in networks.

Caleb Pomeroy, Niheer Dasandi, Slava J. Mikhaylov

This paper contributes to an emerging literature that models votes and text in tandem to better understand polarization of expressed preferences. It introduces a new approach to estimate preference polarization in multidimensional settings, such as international relations, based on developments in the natural language processing and network science literatures -- namely word embeddings, which retain valuable syntactical qualities of human language, and community detection in multilayer networks, which locates densely connected actors across multiple, complex networks. We find that the employment of these tools in tandem helps to better estimate states' foreign policy preferences expressed in UN votes and speeches beyond that permitted by votes alone. The utility of these located affinity blocs is demonstrated through an application to conflict onset in International Relations, though these tools will be of interest to all scholars faced with the measurement of preferences and polarization in multidimensional settings.