Anna Carolina Finamore

Vasco D. Silva, Anna Finamore, Rui Henriques

Ongoing traffic changes, including those triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, reveal the necessity to adapt our public transport systems to the ever-changing users' needs. This work shows that single and multi objective stances can be synergistically combined to better answer the transit network design problem (TNDP). Single objective formulations are dynamically inferred from the rating of networks in the approximated (multi-objective) Pareto Front, where a regression approach is used to infer the optimal weights of transfer needs, times, distances, coverage, and costs. As a guiding case study, the solution is applied to the multimodal public transport network in the city of Lisbon, Portugal. The system takes individual trip data given by smartcard validations at CARRIS buses and METRO subway stations and uses them to estimate the origin-destination demand in the city. Then, Genetic Algorithms are used, considering both single and multi objective approaches, to redesign the bus network that better fits the observed traffic demand. The proposed TNDP optimization proved to improve results, with reductions in objective functions of up to 28.3%. The system managed to extensively reduce the number of routes, and all passenger related objectives, including travel time and transfers per trip, significantly improve. Grounded on automated fare collection data, the system can incrementally redesign the bus network to dynamically handle ongoing changes to the city traffic.

Cláudio Sardinha, Anna C. Finamore, Rui Henriques

Bike sharing demand is increasing in large cities worldwide. The proper functioning of bike-sharing systems is, nevertheless, dependent on a balanced geographical distribution of bicycles throughout a day. In this context, understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of check-ins and check-outs is key for station balancing and bike relocation initiatives. Still, recent contributions from deep learning and distance-based predictors show limited success on forecasting bike sharing demand. This consistent observation is hypothesized to be driven by: i) the strong dependence between demand and the meteorological and situational context of stations; and ii) the absence of spatial awareness as most predictors are unable to model the effects of high-low station load on nearby stations. This work proposes a comprehensive set of new principles to incorporate both historical and prospective sources of spatial, meteorological, situational and calendrical context in predictive models of station demand. To this end, a new recurrent neural network layering composed by serial long-short term memory (LSTM) components is proposed with two major contributions: i) the feeding of multivariate time series masks produced from historical context data at the input layer, and ii) the time-dependent regularization of the forecasted time series using prospective context data. This work further assesses the impact of incorporating different sources of context, showing the relevance of the proposed principles for the community even though not all improvements from the context-aware predictors yield statistical significance.