Deepthi Mary Dilip

Saif Eddin Jabari, Deepthi Mary Dilip, DianChao Lin et al.

This paper presents a mesoscopic traffic flow model that explicitly describes the spatio-temporal evolution of the probability distributions of vehicle trajectories. The dynamics are represented by a sequence of factor graphs, which enable learning of traffic dynamics from limited Lagrangian measurements using an efficient message passing technique. The approach ensures that estimated speeds and traffic densities are non-negative with probability one. The estimation technique is tested using vehicle trajectory datasets generated using an independent microscopic traffic simulator and is shown to efficiently reproduce traffic conditions with probe vehicle penetration levels as little as 10\%. The proposed algorithm is also compared with state-of-the-art traffic state estimation techniques developed for the same purpose and it is shown that the proposed approach can outperform the state-of-the-art techniques in terms reconstruction accuracy.

Saif Eddin Jabari, Nikolaos M. Freris, Deepthi Mary Dilip

We address two shortcomings in online travel time estimation methods for congested urban traffic. The first shortcoming is related to the determination of the number of mixture modes, which can change dynamically, within day and from day to day. The second shortcoming is the wide-spread use of Gaussian probability densities as mixture components. Gaussian densities fail to capture the positive skew in travel time distributions and, consequently, large numbers of mixture components are needed for reasonable fitting accuracy when applied as mixture components. They also assign positive probabilities to negative travel times. To address these issues, this paper derives a mixture distribution with Gamma component densities, which are asymmetric and supported on the positive numbers. We use sparse estimation techniques to ensure parsimonious models and propose a generalization of Gamma mixture densities using Mittag-Leffler functions, which provides enhanced fitting flexibility and improved parsimony. In order to accommodate within-day variability and allow for online implementation of the proposed methodology (i.e., fast computations on streaming travel time data), we introduce a recursive algorithm which efficiently updates the fitted distribution whenever new data become available. Experimental results using real-world travel time data illustrate the efficacy of the proposed methods.