Yuhuan Lu

Xin Jing, Yichen Jing, Yuhuan Lu et al.

The rapid spread of diverse information on online social platforms has prompted both academia and industry to realize the importance of predicting content popularity, which could benefit a wide range of applications, such as recommendation systems and strategic decision-making. Recent works mainly focused on extracting spatiotemporal patterns inherent in the information diffusion process within a given observation period so as to predict its popularity over a future period of time. However, these works often overlook the future popularity trend, as future popularity could either increase exponentially or stagnate, introducing uncertainties to the prediction performance. Additionally, how to transfer the preceding-term dynamics learned from the observed diffusion process into future-term trends remains an unexplored challenge. Against this background, we propose CasFT, which leverages observed information Cascades and dynamic cues extracted via neural ODEs as conditions to guide the generation of Future popularity-increasing Trends through a diffusion model. These generated trends are then combined with the spatiotemporal patterns in the observed information cascade to make the final popularity prediction. Extensive experiments conducted on three real-world datasets demonstrate that CasFT significantly improves the prediction accuracy, compared to state-of-the-art approaches, yielding 2.2%-19.3% improvement across different datasets.

ChongIn Un, Yuhuan Lu, Tianyue Yang et al.

Knowledge graphs (KGs) have become an effective paradigm for managing real-world facts, which are not only complex but also dynamically evolve over time. The temporal validity of facts often serves as a strong clue in downstream link prediction tasks, which predicts a missing element in a fact. Traditional link prediction techniques on temporal KGs either consider a sequence of temporal snapshots of KGs with an ad-hoc defined time interval or expand a temporal fact over its validity period under a predefined time granularity; these approaches not only suffer from the sensitivity of the selection of time interval/granularity, but also face the computational challenges when handling facts with long (even infinite) validity. Although the recent hyper-relational KGs represent the temporal validity of a fact as qualifiers describing the fact, it is still suboptimal due to its ignorance of the infinite validity of some facts and the insufficient information encoded from the qualifiers about the temporal validity. Against this background, we propose VITA, a $\underline{V}$ersatile t$\underline{I}$me represen$\underline{TA}$tion learning method for temporal hyper-relational knowledge graphs. We first propose a versatile time representation that can flexibly accommodate all four types of temporal validity of facts (i.e., since, until, period, time-invariant), and then design VITA to effectively learn the time information in both aspects of time value and timespan to boost the link prediction performance. We conduct a thorough evaluation of VITA compared to a sizable collection of baselines on real-world KG datasets. Results show that VITA outperforms the best-performing baselines in various link prediction tasks (predicting missing entities, relations, time, and other numeric literals) by up to 75.3%. Ablation studies and a case study also support our key design choices.