Nandi Leslie

Todd Huster, Jeremy E. J. Cohen, Zinan Lin et al.

Generative adversarial networks (GANs) are often billed as "universal distribution learners", but precisely what distributions they can represent and learn is still an open question. Heavy-tailed distributions are prevalent in many different domains such as financial risk-assessment, physics, and epidemiology. We observe that existing GAN architectures do a poor job of matching the asymptotic behavior of heavy-tailed distributions, a problem that we show stems from their construction. Additionally, when faced with the infinite moments and large distances between outlier points that are characteristic of heavy-tailed distributions, common loss functions produce unstable or near-zero gradients. We address these problems with the Pareto GAN. A Pareto GAN leverages extreme value theory and the functional properties of neural networks to learn a distribution that matches the asymptotic behavior of the marginal distributions of the features. We identify issues with standard loss functions and propose the use of alternative metric spaces that enable stable and efficient learning. Finally, we evaluate our proposed approach on a variety of heavy-tailed datasets.

Alexander Kott, Benjamin Blakely, Diane Henshel et al.

This report summarizes the discussions and findings of the 2017 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Workshop, IST-153, on Cyber Resilience, held in Munich, Germany, on 23-25 October 2017, at the University of Bundeswehr. Despite continual progress in managing risks in the cyber domain, anticipation and prevention of all possible attacks and malfunctions are not feasible for the current or future systems comprising the cyber infrastructure. Therefore, interest in cyber resilience (as opposed to merely risk-based approaches) is increasing rapidly, in literature and in practice. Unlike concepts of risk or robustness - which are often and incorrectly conflated with resilience - resiliency refers to the system's ability to recover or regenerate its performance to a sufficient level after an unexpected impact produces a degradation of its performance. The exact relation among resilience, risk, and robustness has not been well articulated technically. The presentations and discussions at the workshop yielded this report. It focuses on the following topics that the participants of the workshop saw as particularly important: fundamental properties of cyber resilience; approaches to measuring and modeling cyber resilience; mission modeling for cyber resilience; systems engineering for cyber resilience, and dynamic defense as a path toward cyber resilience.

Alexander Kott, Ryan Thomas, Martin Drašar et al.

This report summarizes the discussions and findings of the Workshop on Intelligent Autonomous Agents for Cyber Defence and Resilience organized by the NATO research group IST-152-RTG. The workshop was held in Prague, Czech Republic, on 18-20 October 2017. There is a growing recognition that future cyber defense should involve extensive use of partially autonomous agents that actively patrol the friendly network, and detect and react to hostile activities rapidly (far faster than human reaction time), before the hostile malware is able to inflict major damage, evade friendly agents, or destroy friendly agents. This requires cyber-defense agents with a significant degree of intelligence, autonomy, self-learning, and adaptability. The report focuses on the following questions: In what computing and tactical environments would such an agent operate? What data would be available for the agent to observe or ingest? What actions would the agent be able to take? How would such an agent plan a complex course of actions? Would the agent learn from its experiences, and how? How would the agent collaborate with humans? How can we ensure that the agent will not take undesirable destructive actions? Is it possible to help envision such an agent with a simple example?