Ferran Alet

Remi Lam, Alvaro Sanchez-Gonzalez, Matthew Willson et al. · deepmind

Global medium-range weather forecasting is critical to decision-making across many social and economic domains. Traditional numerical weather prediction uses increased compute resources to improve forecast accuracy, but cannot directly use historical weather data to improve the underlying model. We introduce a machine learning-based method called "GraphCast", which can be trained directly from reanalysis data. It predicts hundreds of weather variables, over 10 days at 0.25 degree resolution globally, in under one minute. We show that GraphCast significantly outperforms the most accurate operational deterministic systems on 90% of 1380 verification targets, and its forecasts support better severe event prediction, including tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and extreme temperatures. GraphCast is a key advance in accurate and efficient weather forecasting, and helps realize the promise of machine learning for modeling complex dynamical systems.

Ferran Alet, Erica Weng, Tomás Lozano Pérez et al. · mit

\textit{Graph neural networks} (GNNs) are effective models for many dynamical systems consisting of entities and relations. Although most GNN applications assume a single type of entity and relation, many situations involve multiple types of interactions. \textit{Relational inference} is the problem of inferring these interactions and learning the dynamics from observational data. We frame relational inference as a \textit{modular meta-learning} problem, where neural modules are trained to be composed in different ways to solve many tasks. This meta-learning framework allows us to implicitly encode time invariance and infer relations in context of one another rather than independently, which increases inference capacity. Framing inference as the inner-loop optimization of meta-learning leads to a model-based approach that is more data-efficient and capable of estimating the state of entities that we do not observe directly, but whose existence can be inferred from their effect on observed entities. To address the large search space of graph neural network compositions, we meta-learn a \textit{proposal function} that speeds up the inner-loop simulated annealing search within the modular meta-learning algorithm, providing two orders of magnitude increase in the size of problems that can be addressed.

Gheorghe Comanici, Eric Bieber, Mike Schaekermann et al. · amazon-science, baidu

In this report, we introduce the Gemini 2.X model family: Gemini 2.5 Pro and Gemini 2.5 Flash, as well as our earlier Gemini 2.0 Flash and Flash-Lite models. Gemini 2.5 Pro is our most capable model yet, achieving SoTA performance on frontier coding and reasoning benchmarks. In addition to its incredible coding and reasoning skills, Gemini 2.5 Pro is a thinking model that excels at multimodal understanding and it is now able to process up to 3 hours of video content. Its unique combination of long context, multimodal and reasoning capabilities can be combined to unlock new agentic workflows. Gemini 2.5 Flash provides excellent reasoning abilities at a fraction of the compute and latency requirements and Gemini 2.0 Flash and Flash-Lite provide high performance at low latency and cost. Taken together, the Gemini 2.X model generation spans the full Pareto frontier of model capability vs cost, allowing users to explore the boundaries of what is possible with complex agentic problem solving.

Ilan Price, Alvaro Sanchez-Gonzalez, Ferran Alet et al.

Weather forecasts are fundamentally uncertain, so predicting the range of probable weather scenarios is crucial for important decisions, from warning the public about hazardous weather, to planning renewable energy use. Here, we introduce GenCast, a probabilistic weather model with greater skill and speed than the top operational medium-range weather forecast in the world, the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF)'s ensemble forecast, ENS. Unlike traditional approaches, which are based on numerical weather prediction (NWP), GenCast is a machine learning weather prediction (MLWP) method, trained on decades of reanalysis data. GenCast generates an ensemble of stochastic 15-day global forecasts, at 12-hour steps and 0.25 degree latitude-longitude resolution, for over 80 surface and atmospheric variables, in 8 minutes. It has greater skill than ENS on 97.4% of 1320 targets we evaluated, and better predicts extreme weather, tropical cyclones, and wind power production. This work helps open the next chapter in operational weather forecasting, where critical weather-dependent decisions are made with greater accuracy and efficiency.

Ferran Alet, Ilan Price, Andrew El-Kadi et al.

Machine learning (ML)-based weather models have rapidly risen to prominence due to their greater accuracy and speed than traditional forecasts based on numerical weather prediction (NWP), recently outperforming traditional ensembles in global probabilistic weather forecasting. This paper presents FGN, a simple, scalable and flexible modeling approach which significantly outperforms the current state-of-the-art models. FGN generates ensembles via learned model-perturbations with an ensemble of appropriately constrained models. It is trained directly to minimize the continuous rank probability score (CRPS) of per-location forecasts. It produces state-of-the-art ensemble forecasts as measured by a range of deterministic and probabilistic metrics, makes skillful ensemble tropical cyclone track predictions, and captures joint spatial structure despite being trained only on marginals.

Ferran Alet, Clement Gehring, Tomás Lozano-Pérez et al. · mit

The field of Machine Learning has changed significantly since the 1970s. However, its most basic principle, Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM), remains unchanged. We propose Functional Risk Minimization~(FRM), a general framework where losses compare functions rather than outputs. This results in better performance in supervised, unsupervised, and RL experiments. In the FRM paradigm, for each data point $(x_i,y_i)$ there is function $f_{θ_i}$ that fits it: $y_i = f_{θ_i}(x_i)$. This allows FRM to subsume ERM for many common loss functions and to capture more realistic noise processes. We also show that FRM provides an avenue towards understanding generalization in the modern over-parameterized regime, as its objective can be framed as finding the simplest model that fits the training data.

Ferran Alet, Dylan Doblar, Allan Zhou et al.

Progress in machine learning (ML) stems from a combination of data availability, computational resources, and an appropriate encoding of inductive biases. Useful biases often exploit symmetries in the prediction problem, such as convolutional networks relying on translation equivariance. Automatically discovering these useful symmetries holds the potential to greatly improve the performance of ML systems, but still remains a challenge. In this work, we focus on sequential prediction problems and take inspiration from Noether's theorem to reduce the problem of finding inductive biases to meta-learning useful conserved quantities. We propose Noether Networks: a new type of architecture where a meta-learned conservation loss is optimized inside the prediction function. We show, theoretically and experimentally, that Noether Networks improve prediction quality, providing a general framework for discovering inductive biases in sequential problems.

Ferran Alet, Maria Bauza, Kenji Kawaguchi et al.

From CNNs to attention mechanisms, encoding inductive biases into neural networks has been a fruitful source of improvement in machine learning. Adding auxiliary losses to the main objective function is a general way of encoding biases that can help networks learn better representations. However, since auxiliary losses are minimized only on training data, they suffer from the same generalization gap as regular task losses. Moreover, by adding a term to the loss function, the model optimizes a different objective than the one we care about. In this work we address both problems: first, we take inspiration from \textit{transductive learning} and note that after receiving an input but before making a prediction, we can fine-tune our networks on any unsupervised loss. We call this process {\em tailoring}, because we customize the model to each input to ensure our prediction satisfies the inductive bias. Second, we formulate {\em meta-tailoring}, a nested optimization similar to that in meta-learning, and train our models to perform well on the task objective after adapting them using an unsupervised loss. The advantages of tailoring and meta-tailoring are discussed theoretically and demonstrated empirically on a diverse set of examples.

Ferran Alet, Martin F. Schneider, Tomas Lozano-Perez et al.

We hypothesize that curiosity is a mechanism found by evolution that encourages meaningful exploration early in an agent's life in order to expose it to experiences that enable it to obtain high rewards over the course of its lifetime. We formulate the problem of generating curious behavior as one of meta-learning: an outer loop will search over a space of curiosity mechanisms that dynamically adapt the agent's reward signal, and an inner loop will perform standard reinforcement learning using the adapted reward signal. However, current meta-RL methods based on transferring neural network weights have only generalized between very similar tasks. To broaden the generalization, we instead propose to meta-learn algorithms: pieces of code similar to those designed by humans in ML papers. Our rich language of programs combines neural networks with other building blocks such as buffers, nearest-neighbor modules and custom loss functions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach empirically, finding two novel curiosity algorithms that perform on par or better than human-designed published curiosity algorithms in domains as disparate as grid navigation with image inputs, acrobot, lunar lander, ant and hopper.

Maria Bauza, Ferran Alet, Yen-Chen Lin et al.

Pushing is a fundamental robotic skill. Existing work has shown how to exploit models of pushing to achieve a variety of tasks, including grasping under uncertainty, in-hand manipulation and clearing clutter. Such models, however, are approximate, which limits their applicability. Learning-based methods can reason directly from raw sensory data with accuracy, and have the potential to generalize to a wider diversity of scenarios. However, developing and testing such methods requires rich-enough datasets. In this paper we introduce Omnipush, a dataset with high variety of planar pushing behavior. In particular, we provide 250 pushes for each of 250 objects, all recorded with RGB-D and a high precision tracking system. The objects are constructed so as to systematically explore key factors that affect pushing -- the shape of the object and its mass distribution -- which have not been broadly explored in previous datasets, and allow to study generalization in model learning. Omnipush includes a benchmark for meta-learning dynamic models, which requires algorithms that make good predictions and estimate their own uncertainty. We also provide an RGB video prediction benchmark and propose other relevant tasks that can be suited with this dataset. Data and code are available at \url{https://web.mit.edu/mcube/omnipush-dataset/}.

Ferran Alet, Adarsh K. Jeewajee, Maria Bauza et al.

We explore the use of graph neural networks (GNNs) to model spatial processes in which there is no a priori graphical structure. Similar to finite element analysis, we assign nodes of a GNN to spatial locations and use a computational process defined on the graph to model the relationship between an initial function defined over a space and a resulting function in the same space. We use GNNs as a computational substrate, and show that the locations of the nodes in space as well as their connectivity can be optimized to focus on the most complex parts of the space. Moreover, this representational strategy allows the learned input-output relationship to generalize over the size of the underlying space and run the same model at different levels of precision, trading computation for accuracy. We demonstrate this method on a traditional PDE problem, a physical prediction problem from robotics, and learning to predict scene images from novel viewpoints.

Ferran Alet, Maria Bauza, Alberto Rodriguez et al.

Modular meta-learning is a new framework that generalizes to unseen datasets by combining a small set of neural modules in different ways. In this work we propose abstract graph networks: using graphs as abstractions of a system's subparts without a fixed assignment of nodes to system subparts, for which we would need supervision. We combine this idea with modular meta-learning to get a flexible framework with combinatorial generalization to new tasks built in. We then use it to model the pushing of arbitrarily shaped objects from little or no training data.

Ferran Alet, Tomás Lozano-Pérez, Leslie P. Kaelbling

Many prediction problems, such as those that arise in the context of robotics, have a simplifying underlying structure that, if known, could accelerate learning. In this paper, we present a strategy for learning a set of neural network modules that can be combined in different ways. We train different modular structures on a set of related tasks and generalize to new tasks by composing the learned modules in new ways. By reusing modules to generalize we achieve combinatorial generalization, akin to the "infinite use of finite means" displayed in language. Finally, we show this improves performance in two robotics-related problems.

Ferran Alet, Rohan Chitnis, Leslie P. Kaelbling et al.

In many applications that involve processing high-dimensional data, it is important to identify a small set of entities that account for a significant fraction of detections. Rather than formalize this as a clustering problem, in which all detections must be grouped into hard or soft categories, we formalize it as an instance of the frequent items or heavy hitters problem, which finds groups of tightly clustered objects that have a high density in the feature space. We show that the heavy hitters formulation generates solutions that are more accurate and effective than the clustering formulation. In addition, we present a novel online algorithm for heavy hitters, called HAC, which addresses problems in continuous space, and demonstrate its effectiveness on real video and household domains.

Andy Zeng, Shuran Song, Kuan-Ting Yu et al.

This paper presents a robotic pick-and-place system that is capable of grasping and recognizing both known and novel objects in cluttered environments. The key new feature of the system is that it handles a wide range of object categories without needing any task-specific training data for novel objects. To achieve this, it first uses a category-agnostic affordance prediction algorithm to select and execute among four different grasping primitive behaviors. It then recognizes picked objects with a cross-domain image classification framework that matches observed images to product images. Since product images are readily available for a wide range of objects (e.g., from the web), the system works out-of-the-box for novel objects without requiring any additional training data. Exhaustive experimental results demonstrate that our multi-affordance grasping achieves high success rates for a wide variety of objects in clutter, and our recognition algorithm achieves high accuracy for both known and novel grasped objects. The approach was part of the MIT-Princeton Team system that took 1st place in the stowing task at the 2017 Amazon Robotics Challenge. All code, datasets, and pre-trained models are available online at http://arc.cs.princeton.edu